College Football Warm Up: Three Years of Results

Last year we examined college football rankings on a week to week systematic basis.  This year, as noted before, the expectation is to do something more like the USCHO’s tournament ranking formula.  We have described the methodology before.  We’ve also mused on what a playoff would look like if college football really did a fair, basketball analogous system.  Considering 68 of 3oo+ get into the basketball tournament, a 24 team tournament with 11 conference champions seemed fair here.  So how does our new ranking system look if we ran the playoff seeding formula using the last three years of data? (region teams listed in order of seed – the Top 2 in each region get byes – top 2 row, bottom 2 rows are the national semifinals)

2008:

  1. GLENDALE: Oklahoma (1), Penn State, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Buffalo
  2. MIAMI: Utah (4), Florida, TCU, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Virginia Tech
  3. NEW ORLEANS: Texas (2), USC, Ball State, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, Troy
  4. PASADENA: Boise State (3), Texas Tech, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Georgia, East Carolina

2009:

  1. GLENDALE: Texas (1), Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Houston, LSU, Troy
  2. MIAMI: Cincinnati (4), Florida, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State
  3. NEW ORLEANS:  Alabama (2), Oregon, Iowa, Virginia Tech, BYU, East Carolina
  4. PASADENA: TCU (3), Boise State, Miami-FL, Central Michigan, Penn State, West Virginia

2010:

  1. NEW ORLEANS: Auburn (1), Stanford, Missouri, Texas A&M, Utah, Florida International
  2. GLENDALE: Ohio State (4), Boise State, Nevada, LSU, Nebraska West Virginia
  3. PASADENA: Oregon (2), Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Miami-OH
  4. MIAMI: TCU (3), Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Central Florida

In 2008, in a playoff scenario, wow is Oklahoma’s road to the title hard.  An Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma road to the title game is pretty massive.  They should be happy about the bowl system.  With all the teams taking losses in that season particularly, the softer Pasadena region was probably an inevitability.

The most interesting note of last year’s data though is how crazy the Pasadena region would have been.  Oregon would have had a gauntlet to run to get the title game.  Heck, TCU would have not had a picnic either.  Auburn as the top seed interestingly would have had by far the easiest region.

Definitely would be fun to speculate on … if only …

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