2011 NFL Power Rankings #1

Fortunately, in contrast to college, the NFL power ranking schedule data comes in nice and quick.  With no byes to be had – the two game minimum needed (so each opponent has another opponent to use for SoS measure) comes nice and quick.  In any case, the lecture on the pairwise comparison method is used this year, similar to the crap we are doing with college teams.  In any case, we’ll keep the first ranking short and sweet:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Jets 2 0 1 (1) 23.25 (5) 28
2 Redskins 2 0 0.875 (2) 20.5 (6) 26
3 Cowboys 1 1 0.725 (7) 29.25 (1) 25
4 Packers 2 0 0.813 (4) 19.5 (7) 25
5 Raiders 1 1 0.725 (7) 24.375 (3) 23
6 Patriots 2 0 0.813 (4) 17.75 (9) 22
7 Lions 2 0 0.813 (4) 12.875 (11) 21
8 Saints 1 1 0.625 (11) 24 (4) 20
9 Texans 2 0 0.688 (9) 12.75 (12) 19
10 Titans 1 1 0.563 (12) 12 (13) 18
11 Bills 2 0 0.875 (2) 6.375 (18) 16
12 Bengals 1 1 0.538 (15) 15.25 (10) 15
13 Cardinals 1 1 0.563 (12) 11.75 (15) 15
14 Ravens 1 1 0.438 (18) 25.5 (2) 14
15 Bucs 1 1 0.438 (18) 19.5 (7) 13
16 Broncos 1 1 0.463 (17) 10 (16) 12
17 Bears 1 1 0.563 (12) 5.5 (19) 12
18 Chargers 1 1 0.438 (18) 8.5 (17) 11
19 Jaguars 1 1 0.688 (9) -0.5 (24) 10
20 Falcons 1 1 0.438 (18) 2.25 (22) 9
21 Eagles 1 1 0.413 (22) 2.5 (21) 8
22 Dolphins 0 2 0.313 (25) 12 (13) 7
23 Giants 1 1 0.5 (16) -4.25 (25) 7
24 Browns 1 1 0.375 (23) -6.75 (26) 6
25 Steelers 1 1 0.313 (25) -7.75 (27) 4
26 Panthers 0 2 0.25 (28) 3.5 (20) 4
27 49ers 1 1 0.275 (27) 0 (23) 4
28 Vikings 0 2 0.125 (29) -9 (28) 3
29 Colts 0 2 0.125 (29) -10.5 (29) 2
30 Chiefs 0 2 0.375 (23) -25.125 (31) 1
31 Rams 0 2 0.063 (31) -15.25 (30) 1
32 Seahawks 0 2 0 (32) -26.75 (32) 0

Some of the observations from two weeks of data?

  1. Despite being outscored 89-10 in two games, the Chiefs are not the worst team in the league.  Basically that their opponents have been slightly less horrible than the Seahawks and Rams puts them at #30.  However, any sort of mention of the Chiefs warrants sighs of despair – amazing they hosted a playoff game a year ago.
  2. The Jets at#1 is the combination of their own performance (2-0 of course) and their opponents solid performance in their other games.  With the 5th rated scoring margin, it feels like the fundamentals are there too (well small sample sizes notwithstanding).  Of course they are expected to win the AFC, so not exactly a bulletin here.
  3. Remember the model only knows what we have seen so far.  The Jets opponents will not be unbeaten against everyone else for instance.  Similarly, Seattle’s opponents will not remain this horrible – although Seattle very well might.
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