2011 NCAA Power Rankings #2

With the wildly eventful week behind us, some of the teams in our previous Top 20 had some significant tests – with varying results:

  • Second ranked Michigan got to face a fellow unbeaten in Brady Hoke’s previous team – the 21st ranked Aztecs of San Diego State.  The Michigan defense, which had been all kinds of awful under Rich Rodriguez, stepped to the fore and delivered an excellent effort.
  • Third ranked Texas A&M blew a big lead to the 4th ranked Cowboys of Okie State, who suddenly look like a real potential force.
  • In primetime of course, sixth ranked LSU made mincemeat out of a spunky but clearly overmatched 20th ranked West Virginia team.  LSU with its two quality road scalps and neutral site win over Oregon makes a very strong eye-test case for the #1 ranking.  However, Alabama delivered their own statement over Arkansas.
  • Fifth ranked USC with a few quality 1A wins lost their first true road game at Arizona State, and the tumble shows.
  • 9th ranked Florida International slipped, perhaps a letdown after such a euphoric non-conference start.

Also, it was a tough week for the ACC after such a good one last week.  Miami and Maryland’s losses are particularly head scratching.  What does this do to the numbers?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Michigan 4 0 0.84 (2) 32.542 (5) 120
2 Alabama 4 0 0.815 (5) 35.021 (3) 114
3 Oklahoma State 4 0 0.828 (4) 29.354 (10) 110
4 LSU 4 0 0.78 (11) 36.079 (2) 109
5 Oklahoma 3 0 0.792 (8) 29.444 (9) 107
6 South Carolina 4 0 0.834 (3) 26.698 (14) 106
7 South Florida 4 0 0.792 (7) 26.163 (15) 105
8 Boise State 3 0 0.775 (12) 27.667 (12) 103
9 Florida 4 0 0.762 (14) 26.115 (16) 101
10 Georgia Tech 4 0 0.761 (15) 28.663 (11) 101
11 Nebraska 4 0 0.794 (6) 23.066 (19) 101
12 Stanford 3 0 0.713 (21) 33.111 (4) 99
13 Baylor 3 0 0.787 (9) 19.995 (24) 97
14 Illinois 4 0 0.784 (10) 22.621 (22) 97
15 Wisconsin 4 0 0.693 (22) 29.975 (7) 97
16 Texas 3 0 0.843 (1) 16.389 (29) 92
17 Clemson 4 0 0.774 (13) 15.084 (31) 91
18 Virginia Tech 4 0 0.756 (16) 16.746 (28) 91
19 Arizona State 3 1 0.673 (24) 21.276 (23) 89
20 North Carolina 3 1 0.65 (29) 22.732 (20) 87
21 TCU 3 1 0.631 (32) 26.996 (13) 86
22 San Diego State 3 1 0.678 (23) 15.08 (32) 85
23 USC 3 1 0.66 (28) 14.813 (33) 81
24 Penn State 3 1 0.607 (40) 25.318 (17) 78
25 Tennessee 2 1 0.602 (42) 30.043 (6) 78
26 FIU 3 1 0.615 (37) 14.229 (34) 74
27 Notre Dame 2 2 0.595 (46) 29.708 (8) 74
28 Ohio 3 1 0.613 (38) 16.16 (30) 74
29 Iowa State 3 0 0.75 (17) 9.585 (50) 73
30 Vanderbilt 3 1 0.627 (35) 12.272 (37) 73
31 Washington 3 1 0.65 (30) 11.653 (43) 72
32 Arkansas 3 1 0.606 (41) 12.204 (38) 70
33 Houston 4 0 0.732 (18) 9.267 (51) 70
34 Rutgers 2 1 0.584 (51) 23.55 (18) 70
35 Temple 3 1 0.586 (49) 19.017 (25) 69
36 Utah 2 1 0.645 (31) 11.203 (46) 69
37 Cincinnati 3 1 0.585 (50) 17.913 (26) 68
38 Iowa 3 1 0.598 (44) 12.119 (40) 67
39 California 3 1 0.663 (27) 9.204 (52) 65
40 Texas A&M 2 1 0.539 (58) 36.111 (1) 65
41 Wyoming 3 1 0.565 (53) 4.828 (72) 65
42 Ball State 3 1 0.63 (33) 9 (53) 64
43 Navy 2 1 0.598 (43) 9.768 (49) 61
44 Oregon 2 1 0.534 (61) 22.634 (21) 60
45 Kansas State 3 0 0.717 (19) 6.815 (64) 59
46 Texas Tech 3 0 0.664 (26) 7.713 (59) 59
47 Auburn 3 1 0.671 (25) 6.75 (65) 58
48 Ohio State 3 1 0.594 (47) 8.167 (56) 57
49 Bowling Green 3 1 0.528 (62) 11.767 (41) 55
50 Western Michigan 2 2 0.526 (63) 12.168 (39) 55
51 SMU 3 1 0.628 (34) 6.285 (66) 54
52 Washington State 2 1 0.541 (57) 10.189 (48) 53
53 Michigan State 3 1 0.581 (52) 7.229 (62) 51
54 Mississippi State 2 2 0.524 (64) 10.708 (47) 51
55 Wake Forest 2 1 0.545 (55) 7.939 (58) 51
56 Georgia 2 2 0.49 (74) 13.527 (35) 46
57 West Virginia 3 1 0.597 (45) 4.704 (74) 46
58 Air Force 2 1 0.414 (86) 4.674 (75) 45
59 Arkansas State 2 2 0.502 (71) 8.998 (54) 44
60 Connecticut 2 2 0.478 (75) 11.669 (42) 44
61 LA-Lafayette 3 1 0.716 (20) 2.715 (80) 44
62 Missouri 2 2 0.476 (76) 12.892 (36) 44
63 BYU 2 2 0.508 (70) 7.698 (60) 43
64 UCF 2 2 0.459 (77) 11.413 (44) 43
65 Marshall 1 3 0.387 (91) -0.25 (87) 42
66 Southern Miss 3 1 0.61 (39) 3.934 (78) 42
67 NC State 2 2 0.432 (83) 2.134 (82) 41
68 Rice 1 2 0.513 (68) 5.792 (68) 41
69 Fresno State 2 2 0.52 (65) 5.201 (71) 40
70 Tulsa 1 3 0.509 (69) 6.042 (67) 40
71 UCLA 2 2 0.516 (66) 5.573 (70) 40
72 Florida State 2 2 0.445 (82) 17.142 (27) 39
73 Syracuse 3 1 0.624 (36) 0.894 (85) 39
74 Virginia 2 2 0.455 (79) 8.281 (55) 39
75 Eastern Michigan 2 2 0.501 (72) -6.741 (105) 34
76 Louisville 2 1 0.539 (59) 1.183 (84) 34
77 Nevada 1 2 0.498 (73) 3.972 (77) 34
78 Pittsburgh 2 2 0.408 (87) 8.12 (57) 33
79 UTEP 2 2 0.545 (54) -0.523 (88) 33
80 Miami-FL 1 2 0.391 (90) 11.389 (45) 32
81 Kansas 2 1 0.587 (48) -1.821 (93) 31
82 Northern Illinois 2 2 0.451 (80) 1.558 (83) 31
83 Northwestern 2 1 0.534 (60) -1.448 (91) 30
84 Purdue 2 1 0.514 (67) -4.2 (95) 28
85 Hawaii 2 2 0.456 (78) -4.233 (96) 27
86 Colorado 1 3 0.371 (95) 5.792 (68) 26
87 Colorado State 3 1 0.542 (56) -4.988 (99) 25
88 Duke 2 2 0.385 (92) 3.805 (79) 24
89 Troy 1 2 0.445 (81) -2.722 (94) 24
90 Maryland 1 2 0.372 (94) 4.583 (76) 23
91 Louisiana Tech 1 3 0.321 (101) 7.349 (61) 22
92 Toledo 1 3 0.33 (99) 4.727 (73) 22
93 Utah State 1 2 0.325 (100) 7.096 (63) 22
94 East Carolina 1 2 0.426 (84) -5.236 (100) 20
95 Army 1 3 0.354 (96) -4.958 (98) 17
96 Oregon State 1 3 0.352 (97) -1.692 (92) 17
97 Kentucky 2 2 0.393 (89) -6.188 (102) 16
98 North Texas 1 3 0.4 (88) -6.313 (103) 16
99 LA-Monroe 1 3 0.351 (98) -5.941 (101) 15
100 San Jose State 1 3 0.318 (103) -6.917 (106) 13
101 New Mexico State 1 3 0.31 (105) -6.417 (104) 12
102 Arizona 1 3 0.307 (106) -4.749 (97) 11
103 Kent State 1 3 0.372 (93) -12.405 (113) 10
104 UNLV 1 3 0.298 (107) -7.157 (107) 10
105 Buffalo 1 3 0.288 (112) -1.441 (90) 9
106 Tulane 2 2 0.419 (85) -15.95 (116) 8
107 Akron 1 3 0.31 (104) -14.747 (114) 7
108 Central Michigan 1 3 0.318 (102) -15.895 (115) 7
109 Idaho 1 3 0.293 (110) -7.542 (110) 6
110 MTSU 0 3 0.239 (115) 2.5 (81) 6
111 Ole Miss 1 3 0.291 (111) -7.512 (109) 6
112 Non FBS 6 81 0.297 (109) -19.179 (118) 6
113 Boston College 1 3 0.228 (117) -1.274 (89) 5
114 Florida Atlantic 0 3 0.298 (108) -12.083 (112) 5
115 Indiana 1 3 0.282 (114) -7.41 (108) 5
116 Memphis 1 3 0.284 (113) -25.774 (120) 3
117 Minnesota 1 3 0.221 (118) -11.938 (111) 3
118 New Mexico 0 4 0.185 (119) -16.948 (117) 1
119 UAB 0 3 0.234 (116) -20.5 (119) 1
120 Miami-OH 0 3 0.149 (121) -0.167 (86) 0
121 Western Kentucky 0 3 0.152 (120) -27.208 (121) 0
  • The obvious first question is, how did Oklahoma plunge 4 spots?  Realistically the schedule they have beaten looks a lot more mediocre now, adding Missouri (who is 2-2 overall, 2-1 vs non-Oklahoma) and Florida State and Tulsa each losing.
  • LSU and Alabama are very close metrically.  One suspects that LSU’s 1-AA win looms large now in their comparison.
  • The big mover of the week at the top of the table is Georgia Tech, whose sublime triple option attack firmly ensconces them in the Top 10 (or at least tied).  South Carolina leaping near the Top 5 is also noteworthy.
  • Michigan moves to the top with another high quality scalp (or at least with current data).  That said, the SEC teams have much more upside left in their schedules.

How does this affect this week’s BCS projection?

First the automatic positions:

  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (3)
  • Big Ten: Michigan (1)
  • SEC: Alabama (2)
  • Big East: South Florida (7)
  • ACC: Georgia Tech (11)
  • Pac 12: Stanford (12)
  • Boise State (8) as non-AQ in Top 16
  • LSU (4) as at-large in Top 4

This leaves the at-large pool to fill up two spots.  Oklahoma (5) and Nebraska (10) round out the spots.  I almost forgot to count Nebraska as the second Big Ten entry.  Putting this into bowls:

  • BCS Championship Game: Michigan vs Alabama
  • Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Nebraska
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Boise State
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs  Oklahoma
  • Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs South Florida

Once again, I doubt Michigan stays on top for long, and Alabama would clobber them – but the Big Blue can celebrate a little longer.

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