2011 NCAA Power Rankings #3

Well, Big Blue Nation, the party had to end. I mean, just by playing a legitimately horrendous opponent such as Minnesota, no matter the result, there was going to be a drop in RPI. How could there not be?  So the RPI, which was a nations 2nd best .84, dropped to .815 despite winning.  In any case, beating a true bad team decidedly does not offset Alabama’s crushing of former Top Ten opponent Florida.  So what of this week?  Well, now with most teams having four games in, the good team criteria starts to kick in.  As noted initially, one of the comparison criteria is record vs good teams (good = RPI >= 0.5).  The minimum games needed to reach this criteria is 4 games (or 1/3 of a 12 game schedule).  So teams that have played at least one decent team get a boost for the most part.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Alabama 5 0 0.815 (2) 38.063 (1) 119
2 Michigan 5 0 0.812 (3) 33.046 (3) 117
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.8 (5) 32.781 (4) 115
4 Oklahoma State 4 0 0.796 (6) 27.266 (9) 113
5 Boise State 4 0 0.79 (7) 26.172 (10) 112
6 Clemson 5 0 0.803 (4) 21.208 (14) 112
7 LSU 5 0 0.77 (9) 33.274 (2) 112
8 Illinois 5 0 0.78 (8) 19.836 (17) 111
9 Stanford 4 0 0.76 (10) 31.719 (6) 111
10 Texas 4 0 0.825 (1) 17.849 (26) 111
11 Kansas State 4 0 0.743 (12) 12.975 (38) 108
12 Wisconsin 5 0 0.733 (13) 32.386 (5) 108
13 Nebraska 4 1 0.704 (16) 19.459 (18) 107
14 Georgia Tech 5 0 0.758 (11) 25.12 (12) 105
15 South Florida 4 1 0.692 (19) 15.524 (31) 104
16 Texas Tech 4 0 0.699 (18) 8.324 (54) 103
17 Washington 4 1 0.691 (20) 14.547 (34) 103
18 South Carolina 4 1 0.663 (26) 19.45 (19) 102
19 West Virginia 4 1 0.624 (36) 17.966 (24) 99
20 North Carolina 4 1 0.703 (17) 16.246 (30) 96
21 Virginia Tech 4 1 0.65 (31) 12.507 (41) 95
22 Rutgers 3 1 0.687 (21) 17.889 (25) 94
23 Arizona State 4 1 0.668 (25) 18.569 (23) 93
24 Notre Dame 3 2 0.638 (35) 29.825 (7) 93
25 San Diego State 3 1 0.678 (23) 16.338 (29) 92
26 Arkansas 4 1 0.67 (24) 14.899 (33) 91
27 Auburn 4 1 0.729 (14) 9.617 (50) 90
28 Florida 4 1 0.623 (38) 22.508 (13) 89
29 Tennessee 3 1 0.605 (43) 25.707 (11) 89
30 Baylor 3 1 0.638 (34) 16.348 (28) 88
31 Ohio 4 1 0.658 (30) 12.131 (42) 87
32 Penn State 4 1 0.623 (37) 19.865 (16) 87
33 USC 4 1 0.66 (28) 6.342 (63) 86
34 Oregon 2 1 0.536 (52) 20.373 (15) 85
35 Texas A&M 2 2 0.459 (78) 29.182 (8) 82
36 TCU 3 2 0.515 (61) 19.316 (20) 80
37 Michigan State 4 1 0.659 (29) 13.048 (37) 77
38 Pittsburgh 3 2 0.487 (70) 16.491 (27) 76
39 Cincinnati 4 1 0.608 (42) 19.186 (21) 74
40 Western Michigan 3 2 0.621 (39) 14.911 (32) 74
41 Iowa State 3 1 0.589 (46) 4.886 (70) 73
42 Wyoming 3 1 0.546 (50) -1.951 (90) 72
43 SMU 4 1 0.661 (27) 10.23 (47) 69
44 Utah 2 2 0.526 (55) 5.088 (67) 65
45 Vanderbilt 3 1 0.611 (41) 10.686 (46) 65
46 California 3 1 0.642 (33) 9.264 (52) 63
47 Iowa 3 1 0.601 (45) 10.835 (45) 63
48 Syracuse 3 2 0.499 (65) 4.389 (71) 63
49 Marshall 2 3 0.521 (58) 1.804 (80) 62
50 Washington State 3 1 0.62 (40) 8.525 (53) 62
51 Georgia 3 2 0.526 (56) 14.511 (35) 61
52 Houston 5 0 0.722 (15) 6.911 (61) 60
53 Air Force 3 1 0.513 (63) 7.521 (58) 59
54 Wake Forest 3 1 0.603 (44) 7.639 (57) 58
55 BYU 3 2 0.543 (51) 8.225 (55) 56
56 Southern Miss 4 1 0.649 (32) 5.349 (64) 54
57 Temple 3 2 0.491 (66) 12.808 (40) 50
58 Missouri 2 2 0.49 (67) 11.868 (43) 49
59 Northwestern 2 2 0.531 (54) 5.256 (66) 47
60 Ohio State 3 2 0.465 (74) 13.433 (36) 47
61 Toledo 2 3 0.467 (73) 12.971 (39) 47
62 UCLA 2 3 0.516 (59) 7.046 (60) 47
63 Eastern Michigan 3 2 0.534 (53) -6.637 (103) 45
64 Florida State 2 2 0.464 (76) 18.639 (22) 45
65 FIU 3 2 0.483 (71) 9.538 (51) 44
66 Hawaii 3 2 0.547 (49) 2.045 (79) 42
67 Mississippi State 2 3 0.48 (72) 8.15 (56) 42
68 Tulsa 2 3 0.524 (57) 3.754 (73) 42
69 Arkansas State 3 2 0.557 (48) 2.409 (78) 41
70 Navy 2 2 0.447 (80) 10.23 (48) 41
71 NC State 2 3 0.381 (97) 5.345 (65) 41
72 Ball State 3 2 0.574 (47) 1.35 (81) 40
73 Nevada 1 3 0.514 (62) 3.76 (72) 40
74 UCF 2 2 0.453 (79) 10.139 (49) 40
75 Virginia 3 2 0.488 (69) 5.081 (68) 40
76 Army 2 3 0.39 (95) 0.388 (84) 39
77 Duke 3 2 0.488 (68) 3.698 (74) 39
78 Bowling Green 3 2 0.508 (64) 3.274 (76) 38
79 Miami-FL 2 2 0.425 (84) 11.155 (44) 38
80 LA-Lafayette 4 1 0.686 (22) -2.488 (91) 34
81 UTEP 2 3 0.465 (75) 0.448 (83) 34
82 Kansas 2 2 0.439 (82) 0.903 (82) 32
83 Connecticut 2 3 0.407 (91) 6.583 (62) 30
84 San Jose State 2 3 0.462 (77) -2.625 (93) 27
85 Maryland 2 2 0.388 (96) 4.996 (69) 24
86 Ole Miss 2 3 0.41 (88) -1.894 (89) 24
87 Rice 1 3 0.423 (85) -2.594 (92) 24
88 Fresno State 2 3 0.408 (89) -0.815 (87) 23
89 Troy 2 2 0.516 (60) -5.5 (98) 23
90 Northern Illinois 2 3 0.403 (92) -0.509 (86) 22
91 Louisville 2 2 0.438 (83) -6.129 (101) 20
92 Oregon State 1 4 0.368 (98) -1.57 (88) 19
93 Colorado 1 4 0.327 (103) 7.05 (59) 18
94 Kentucky 2 3 0.4 (93) -5.729 (99) 17
95 Colorado State 3 2 0.446 (81) -7.3 (107) 16
96 East Carolina 1 3 0.355 (101) -3.906 (94) 16
97 New Mexico State 2 3 0.415 (87) -6.35 (102) 16
98 Purdue 2 2 0.407 (90) -7.231 (106) 15
99 Utah State 1 3 0.315 (107) 3.632 (75) 15
100 Kent State 1 4 0.367 (99) -6.867 (104) 13
101 UNLV 1 3 0.322 (104) -7.432 (108) 13
102 Arizona 1 4 0.316 (106) -4.134 (95) 12
103 MTSU 1 3 0.32 (105) -5.094 (96) 12
104 Louisiana Tech 1 4 0.287 (112) 2.883 (77) 11
105 Buffalo 1 4 0.291 (110) -5.305 (97) 10
106 Central Michigan 2 3 0.423 (86) -11.772 (113) 10
107 LA-Monroe 1 3 0.342 (102) -7.641 (109) 9
108 North Texas 1 4 0.36 (100) -10.688 (111) 9
109 Indiana 1 4 0.277 (114) -5.992 (100) 8
110 Florida Atlantic 0 4 0.307 (108) -11.422 (112) 7
111 Tulane 2 3 0.397 (94) -16.999 (116) 7
112 Akron 1 4 0.291 (111) -14.953 (115) 6
113 Boston College 1 4 0.242 (117) -0.021 (85) 6
114 Idaho 1 4 0.263 (115) -8.306 (110) 6
115 Non FBS 6 83 0.303 (109) -19.436 (118) 6
116 Minnesota 1 4 0.28 (113) -12.475 (114) 5
117 Memphis 1 4 0.262 (116) -22.562 (121) 2
118 Miami-OH 0 4 0.19 (119) -6.938 (105) 2
119 New Mexico 0 5 0.187 (120) -18.275 (117) 1
120 UAB 0 4 0.209 (118) -20.87 (119) 1
121 Western Kentucky 0 4 0.169 (121) -21.279 (120) 0
  • Alabama moving back up to #1 is not particularly surprising.  After all, they beat a better opponent than Michigan did, it followed that good things would happen.  With another Texas A&M loss, Oklahoma State being idle eased down a spot to let Oklahoma pop over it.  If Texas A&M long run is better than a 2-2 team (as I think it is), this will even out som.
  • Clemson’s crushing of Virginia Tech, along with Auburn’s win over South Carolina gave Clemson the honor of the big move of the week from 17 to a tie for 5th place.  Texas blowout of previously unbeaten Iowa State also got it into the Top 10 for the first time this year.  Texas feels far away from the 5-7 sad sacks of a year ago.
  • LSU, the people’s #1, is merely 7th here.  This is a matter of facing Kentucky and a 1-AA team.  Basically their lesser opponents are less than Alabama or Texas’ and the Oregon win has not borne fruit yet.  The nice thing is that LSU will have a chance to prove themselves.

So we turn this into this week’s BCS Do-Over:

Automatic Bids:

  • SEC: Alabama (1)
  • Big Ten: Michigan (2)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma (3)
  • ACC: Clemson (6)
  • Big East: Rutgers (22) … note that South Florida with their lost to Pittsburgh is now 0-1 and behind in the Big East race
  • Pac 12: Stanford (10)
  • Boise State (highest ranked non-AQ)
  • Oklahoma State (4) – 4th ranked at-large

So two at-large positions to be filled, not with a Big 12 team.  Using this, LSU (7) and Illinois (8) are the current best choices.  Turning this into the BCS matchups:

  • BCS Title Game: Alabama vs Michigan
  • Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Illinois
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Boise State
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Oklahoma State
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Rutgers

Michigan does not pass the eye test again.  However, they still pass the metric one.  Til next week!

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