2011 NCAA Power Rankings #4

Certainly, nobody would accuse Northwestern of being chopped liver. But as predicted, the recent downswing in the Michigan schedule has caused an easing down the ladder – and couple in San Diego State’s latest loss and Michigan is definitely off the BCS Title Game line. On the other hand, Alabama has continued to maintain its very strong position with another dominant win over Vanderbilt. Some other results from the week that was?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Alabama 6 0 0.811 (2) 36.898 (1) 119
2 Oklahoma 5 0 0.814 (1) 33.308 (3) 118
3 Boise State 5 0 0.788 (4) 30.395 (6) 116
4 LSU 6 0 0.783 (6) 34.462 (2) 115
5 Michigan 6 0 0.787 (5) 29.792 (8) 115
6 Oklahoma State 5 0 0.8 (3) 27.278 (11) 115
7 Clemson 6 0 0.767 (7) 18.079 (23) 113
8 Illinois 6 0 0.765 (8) 19.922 (15) 113
9 Texas 4 1 0.731 (13) 13.42 (35) 110
10 Stanford 5 0 0.744 (11) 30.998 (5) 109
11 Wisconsin 5 0 0.728 (14) 32.001 (4) 107
12 Georgia Tech 6 0 0.754 (9) 20.078 (14) 105
13 Arizona State 5 1 0.702 (17) 20.877 (12) 104
14 Arkansas 5 1 0.708 (15) 16.609 (27) 104
15 Rutgers 4 1 0.695 (19) 20.351 (13) 104
16 Baylor 4 1 0.677 (22) 18.501 (22) 102
17 Oregon 3 1 0.591 (39) 28.033 (10) 102
18 Penn State 5 1 0.644 (32) 19.31 (17) 101
19 South Carolina 5 1 0.663 (27) 14.5 (31) 99
20 Nebraska 5 1 0.696 (18) 15.641 (30) 98
21 North Carolina 5 1 0.706 (16) 13.517 (33) 97
22 Washington 4 1 0.675 (23) 10.249 (46) 96
23 Notre Dame 4 2 0.642 (33) 30.198 (7) 95
24 Texas A&M 3 2 0.558 (48) 29.74 (9) 92
25 SMU 4 1 0.67 (25) 9.859 (48) 90
26 Georgia 4 2 0.587 (40) 18.937 (19) 89
27 Auburn 4 2 0.664 (26) 9.704 (49) 88
28 Virginia Tech 5 1 0.65 (29) 11.584 (43) 87
29 TCU 4 2 0.58 (43) 18.843 (21) 86
30 USC 4 1 0.658 (28) 4.755 (65) 85
31 West Virginia 5 1 0.623 (35) 19.614 (16) 85
32 LA-Lafayette 5 1 0.688 (20) 0.352 (84) 84
33 Kansas State 5 0 0.745 (10) 12.349 (39) 83
34 South Florida 4 1 0.684 (21) 13.476 (34) 83
35 Houston 6 0 0.737 (12) 12.351 (38) 82
36 Cincinnati 4 1 0.613 (36) 18.929 (20) 81
37 Texas Tech 4 1 0.591 (38) 9.334 (51) 81
38 Southern Miss 5 1 0.671 (24) 13.972 (32) 80
39 Toledo 3 3 0.51 (61) 17.039 (25) 79
40 Western Michigan 4 2 0.628 (34) 16.649 (26) 78
41 BYU 4 2 0.571 (45) 5.515 (63) 76
42 Michigan State 4 1 0.645 (31) 12.992 (36) 76
43 Tennessee 3 2 0.48 (68) 19.288 (18) 76
44 Florida 4 2 0.583 (41) 15.819 (29) 74
45 Syracuse 4 2 0.564 (47) 4.415 (67) 74
46 FIU 4 2 0.532 (56) 8.046 (55) 73
47 San Diego State 3 2 0.532 (57) 11.85 (42) 71
48 Wake Forest 4 1 0.648 (30) 10.051 (47) 70
49 Ohio State 3 3 0.449 (79) 12.075 (41) 68
50 Temple 4 2 0.553 (49) 16.18 (28) 68
51 Ohio 4 2 0.574 (44) 9.632 (50) 66
52 UCLA 3 3 0.54 (52) 7.79 (56) 66
53 Pittsburgh 3 3 0.468 (74) 12.255 (40) 63
54 Vanderbilt 3 2 0.568 (46) 8.229 (53) 63
55 Iowa State 3 2 0.545 (51) -1.988 (88) 62
56 Iowa 3 2 0.534 (55) 7.776 (57) 54
57 Marshall 2 4 0.474 (71) 2.608 (75) 54
58 Mississippi State 3 3 0.53 (58) 7.552 (58) 53
59 Nevada 2 3 0.535 (54) 6.016 (60) 53
60 Air Force 3 2 0.51 (62) 1.478 (77) 52
61 Tulsa 2 3 0.528 (60) 7.003 (59) 52
62 UCF 3 2 0.529 (59) 8.141 (54) 52
63 Utah 2 3 0.469 (73) 3.34 (70) 52
64 California 3 2 0.583 (42) 3.87 (69) 50
65 Arkansas State 4 2 0.598 (37) 2.791 (72) 48
66 Missouri 2 3 0.47 (72) 12.731 (37) 48
67 NC State 3 3 0.43 (85) 4.173 (68) 47
68 Washington State 3 2 0.549 (50) 2.746 (73) 47
69 Virginia 3 2 0.496 (63) 4.416 (66) 46
70 Duke 3 2 0.492 (65) 3.302 (71) 44
71 Hawaii 3 2 0.538 (53) 1.271 (78) 43
72 Northwestern 2 3 0.465 (75) 4.8 (64) 39
73 Wyoming 3 2 0.493 (64) -8.081 (105) 39
74 Eastern Michigan 3 3 0.484 (67) -9.285 (107) 37
75 Bowling Green 3 3 0.489 (66) 0.462 (83) 36
76 Florida State 2 3 0.426 (86) 17.724 (24) 35
77 UTEP 2 3 0.465 (76) 1.095 (79) 35
78 Miami-FL 2 3 0.412 (88) 10.864 (44) 33
79 Rice 2 3 0.475 (70) -1.353 (85) 33
80 Ball State 3 3 0.478 (69) -2.554 (89) 31
81 Purdue 3 2 0.444 (81) 1.061 (80) 31
82 San Jose State 2 4 0.447 (80) -1.621 (86) 31
83 Northern Illinois 3 3 0.433 (82) 0.992 (81) 30
84 Kansas 2 3 0.431 (83) -2.712 (90) 28
85 Louisville 2 3 0.43 (84) -3.971 (91) 27
86 Utah State 2 3 0.388 (96) 10.343 (45) 27
87 Maryland 2 3 0.397 (94) 9.274 (52) 26
88 Navy 2 3 0.406 (92) 5.572 (62) 26
89 Connecticut 2 4 0.408 (91) 2.352 (76) 25
90 Ole Miss 2 3 0.421 (87) -4.415 (93) 25
91 Troy 2 3 0.46 (77) -4.683 (94) 25
92 Louisiana Tech 2 4 0.383 (98) 5.592 (61) 24
93 Oregon State 2 4 0.397 (95) 0.639 (82) 23
94 Colorado State 3 2 0.458 (78) -7.16 (102) 19
95 Fresno State 2 4 0.383 (99) -5.141 (95) 19
96 Army 2 4 0.334 (104) -4.267 (92) 17
97 Buffalo 2 4 0.351 (102) -5.258 (96) 17
98 Colorado 1 5 0.32 (105) 2.698 (74) 16
99 New Mexico State 2 3 0.409 (90) -7.54 (103) 16
100 North Texas 2 4 0.411 (89) -9.233 (106) 15
101 East Carolina 1 4 0.353 (101) -6.233 (99) 14
102 Kentucky 2 4 0.402 (93) -9.513 (108) 14
103 Central Michigan 2 4 0.387 (97) -10.555 (110) 13
104 Indiana 1 5 0.297 (108) -6.12 (98) 12
105 Arizona 1 5 0.295 (109) -5.491 (97) 11
106 LA-Monroe 1 4 0.303 (107) -6.602 (101) 11
107 Boston College 1 5 0.287 (111) -1.945 (87) 10
108 Kent State 1 5 0.335 (103) -9.931 (109) 10
109 UNLV 1 4 0.295 (110) -14.575 (114) 9
110 Akron 1 5 0.28 (113) -13.205 (113) 7
111 Tulane 2 4 0.354 (100) -14.816 (115) 7
112 Non FBS 6 83 0.307 (106) -19.796 (119) 6
113 Idaho 1 5 0.249 (119) -11.269 (111) 5
114 Miami-OH 1 4 0.258 (118) -6.403 (100) 4
115 Minnesota 1 5 0.27 (115) -12.863 (112) 4
116 MTSU 1 4 0.265 (116) -7.565 (104) 4
117 Florida Atlantic 0 5 0.272 (114) -16.803 (116) 3
118 Western Kentucky 1 4 0.284 (112) -19.294 (118) 3
119 Memphis 1 5 0.262 (117) -22.982 (121) 1
120 New Mexico 0 5 0.192 (121) -18.675 (117) 0
121 UAB 0 5 0.207 (120) -22.115 (120) 0

The takeaways for me:

  • LSU has ultimately been held back by a couple of bad opponents despite their good ones, and the corresponding improvement of Georgia, giving Boise State’s best datapoint a bit more weight.  That said, the LSU/Bama thing will solve itself when they play in a few weeks.
  • Oklahoma had the big week of the bunch clearly, with its 55-17 demolition of tenth ranked Texas.  The Longhorns are not made for prime time yet, but the timber of their other results hold.  Indeed Texas is 4-0 for Oklahoma’s schedule calculation.
  • I suppose the most controversial things in the rankings is Wisconsin’s 3rd place in the Big Ten position.  But they have definitely played a tissue soft slate of opponents aside from Nebraska.  Will the Big Ten schedule give them enough points to make a big move?  It is hard to say.
In any case, what does the BCS Do-Over look like today?  First the automatics:
  • SEC: Alabama (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma (2)
  • Big Ten: Michigan (5)
  • ACC: Clemson (7)
  • Pac 12: Stanford (10)
  • Big East: Rutgers (15)
  • NonAQ: Boise State (3)
  • AtLarge at #4: Oklahoma State (4)
So two at-large teams left.  LSU is a natural at the tied for 4th position.  Illinois as the 2nd Big Ten team gets in also.  Noting the Rose Bowl’s preferences, where does this get us?
  • BCS Championship: Alabama vs Oklahoma
  • Rose Bowl: Michigan vs Stanford
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Boise State
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Illinois
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Rutgers
Alabama as the number one team in the country is reasonable both as metrics and as in the eye test to me.  The LSU showdown will be fascinating.
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