2011 NCAA Power Rankings #6

Well, on a week when there was not a ton of sexy matchups, we of course get two of the season shaking upsets.  Texas Tech, coming off of a two game losing streak shocked the world with a 41-38 victory in Norman, while the Spartans found a way to take Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook out of the “most amazing play since” benchmarks.  In a related story, Michigan State is suddenly in charge of their division.  And, as we surmised all along, the matchup to change the world is inching closer to reality.  The rankings for this week?

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Alabama 8 0 0.79 (2) 35.55 (1) 119
2 LSU 8 0 0.785 (3) 33.221 (2) 118
3 Boise State 7 0 0.774 (4) 30.136 (4) 117
4 Oklahoma State 7 0 0.804 (1) 28.805 (6) 117
5 Clemson 8 0 0.77 (5) 17.725 (15) 116
6 Kansas State 7 0 0.76 (6) 14.095 (30) 114
7 Stanford 7 0 0.747 (7) 32.06 (3) 114
8 Michigan 6 1 0.713 (10) 23.486 (10) 112
9 Oklahoma 6 1 0.7 (12) 28.021 (8) 112
10 Michigan State 6 1 0.697 (13) 19.249 (12) 109
11 Cincinnati 6 1 0.668 (20) 16.003 (20) 107
12 Oregon 5 1 0.666 (21) 28.084 (7) 105
13 Penn State 7 1 0.67 (19) 17.191 (16) 105
14 Wisconsin 6 1 0.67 (18) 29.479 (5) 105
15 USC 6 1 0.725 (9) 12.827 (34) 104
16 Virginia Tech 7 1 0.687 (15) 15.717 (22) 104
17 Nebraska 6 1 0.697 (14) 15.533 (23) 103
18 Arkansas 6 1 0.712 (11) 12.802 (35) 100
19 Houston 7 0 0.743 (8) 16.226 (19) 100
20 South Carolina 6 1 0.679 (17) 15.345 (24) 100
21 Texas A&M 5 2 0.633 (27) 26.392 (9) 100
22 Arizona State 5 2 0.65 (22) 18.988 (13) 98
23 Georgia Tech 6 2 0.648 (23) 13.087 (33) 98
24 Rutgers 5 2 0.621 (31) 14.236 (28) 94
25 SMU 5 2 0.643 (24) 14.128 (29) 94
26 Southern Miss 6 1 0.681 (16) 15.998 (21) 93
27 Washington 5 2 0.635 (26) 8.302 (50) 90
28 Texas Tech 5 2 0.6 (34) 12.013 (39) 89
29 Toledo 5 3 0.584 (40) 17.01 (17) 89
30 Georgia 5 2 0.625 (30) 14.318 (27) 88
31 Auburn 5 3 0.641 (25) 7.739 (53) 86
32 Illinois 6 2 0.587 (38) 11.969 (40) 86
33 Miami-FL 4 3 0.562 (49) 15.176 (26) 86
34 Baylor 4 2 0.599 (35) 13.371 (31) 84
35 Syracuse 5 2 0.595 (36) 8.248 (51) 84
36 Wake Forest 5 2 0.602 (33) 7.469 (55) 84
37 TCU 5 2 0.569 (46) 16.254 (18) 83
38 Notre Dame 4 3 0.566 (47) 20.315 (11) 82
39 Ohio State 4 3 0.554 (50) 13.338 (32) 82
40 Arkansas State 5 2 0.629 (28) 8.784 (47) 81
41 Texas 4 2 0.616 (32) 11.594 (41) 81
42 South Florida 4 3 0.522 (60) 12.642 (36) 80
43 Temple 5 3 0.541 (53) 15.217 (25) 77
44 North Carolina 5 3 0.572 (45) 8.862 (46) 75
45 West Virginia 5 2 0.589 (37) 12.405 (37) 75
46 Eastern Michigan 5 3 0.575 (42) -5.592 (95) 69
47 Florida State 4 3 0.538 (55) 18.91 (14) 66
48 Florida 4 3 0.552 (51) 10.852 (43) 65
49 San Diego State 4 2 0.563 (48) 9.636 (44) 65
50 Iowa 5 2 0.573 (44) 8.337 (49) 62
51 Nevada 4 3 0.578 (41) 6.178 (57) 62
52 Tennessee 3 4 0.443 (79) 11.346 (42) 61
53 Tulsa 4 3 0.573 (43) 6.618 (56) 61
54 Purdue 4 3 0.477 (72) 4.875 (63) 59
55 Ball State 5 3 0.541 (52) -2.334 (89) 58
56 NC State 4 3 0.504 (62) 4.178 (67) 56
57 Western Michigan 4 4 0.525 (58) 7.699 (54) 55
58 BYU 6 2 0.586 (39) 4.658 (64) 54
59 UTEP 4 3 0.528 (56) 5.036 (61) 54
60 Mississippi State 3 4 0.499 (66) 9.151 (45) 53
61 Ohio 5 3 0.526 (57) 5.337 (60) 53
62 Vanderbilt 4 3 0.502 (65) 8.672 (48) 53
63 Utah 3 4 0.495 (68) 3.267 (72) 51
64 California 4 3 0.539 (54) 4.131 (68) 50
65 Pittsburgh 3 4 0.392 (95) 5.464 (59) 50
66 Virginia 4 3 0.471 (73) 2.854 (73) 50
67 Bowling Green 4 4 0.471 (74) 3.304 (71) 48
68 Northern Illinois 5 3 0.524 (59) 3.868 (70) 48
69 Missouri 3 4 0.462 (75) 12.056 (38) 47
70 San Jose State 3 4 0.479 (71) 0.777 (81) 47
71 FIU 4 3 0.504 (63) 4.23 (66) 46
72 Utah State 2 5 0.32 (108) 4.92 (62) 45
73 Louisiana Tech 3 4 0.45 (77) 7.856 (52) 43
74 Connecticut 3 4 0.423 (85) 1.746 (77) 42
75 Iowa State 3 4 0.457 (76) -7.025 (104) 42
76 Marshall 3 5 0.482 (69) -1.545 (87) 42
77 Air Force 3 4 0.436 (80) 1.938 (76) 40
78 Hawaii 4 3 0.521 (61) 1.188 (79) 40
79 Louisville 3 4 0.449 (78) 0.912 (80) 40
80 Maryland 2 5 0.366 (102) 4.268 (65) 40
81 LA-Lafayette 6 2 0.628 (29) -1.999 (88) 35
82 Wyoming 4 2 0.503 (64) -6.031 (98) 35
83 UCF 3 4 0.426 (83) 2.42 (74) 34
84 UCLA 3 4 0.499 (67) -0.713 (83) 34
85 East Carolina 3 4 0.481 (70) -1.166 (85) 33
86 Duke 3 4 0.417 (87) -0.178 (82) 32
87 Oregon State 3 5 0.429 (81) 3.916 (69) 32
88 Navy 2 5 0.377 (99) 5.692 (58) 25
89 Washington State 3 4 0.412 (89) -2.465 (90) 25
90 Northwestern 2 5 0.396 (93) 2.1 (75) 24
91 Fresno State 3 5 0.405 (91) -1.419 (86) 23
92 Kansas 2 5 0.388 (96) -7.943 (107) 23
93 LA-Monroe 2 5 0.405 (90) -3.03 (91) 23
94 Ole Miss 2 5 0.394 (94) -0.723 (84) 23
95 Kentucky 3 4 0.427 (82) -6.074 (99) 22
96 New Mexico State 3 4 0.42 (86) -4.706 (94) 20
97 Arizona 2 5 0.368 (101) 1.661 (78) 19
98 Western Kentucky 3 4 0.396 (92) -7.098 (105) 19
99 Buffalo 2 6 0.314 (109) -6.114 (100) 18
100 North Texas 3 5 0.417 (88) -6.6 (102) 18
101 MTSU 2 4 0.364 (103) -3.859 (92) 17
102 Central Michigan 2 6 0.345 (104) -9.656 (111) 16
103 Army 2 5 0.334 (105) -5.597 (96) 15
104 Rice 2 5 0.381 (98) -6.627 (103) 14
105 Miami-OH 2 5 0.374 (100) -7.742 (106) 13
106 Troy 2 4 0.384 (97) -8.519 (108) 13
107 Colorado 1 7 0.326 (107) -5.895 (97) 12
108 Colorado State 3 4 0.425 (84) -10.446 (112) 9
109 Indiana 1 7 0.296 (113) -6.565 (101) 8
110 Boston College 1 6 0.29 (114) -4.261 (93) 7
111 Kent State 1 6 0.303 (112) -9.522 (110) 7
112 Memphis 2 6 0.329 (106) -18.146 (117) 7
113 Akron 1 6 0.284 (117) -12.125 (113) 5
114 Tulane 2 6 0.306 (111) -17.946 (116) 5
115 Idaho 1 6 0.254 (119) -9.462 (109) 4
116 Minnesota 1 6 0.288 (115) -12.992 (114) 4
117 UNLV 1 5 0.286 (116) -18.293 (118) 4
118 UAB 1 6 0.267 (118) -16.247 (115) 3
119 Non FBS 6 85 0.309 (110) -20.049 (120) 3
120 Florida Atlantic 0 7 0.243 (120) -19.937 (119) 1
121 New Mexico 0 7 0.222 (121) -22.617 (121) 0

Some of the takeaways?

  • After weeks of schedule maneuvering, we have our Alabama-LSU #1/#2.  Both teams only trail Oklahoma State in the RPI (which is why they come out tied in comparison with the Cowboys) and Alabama slightly wins out over LSU otherwise.  These have been the two best teams in the country by any eye test.  For the BCS projections later on here though, I am not putting them both in the title game – it won’t happen as a practical matter.
  • Houston drops to #19 from the Top Ten.  This is that pesky “good teams” qualifier.  1/3 of the schedule has to be against .500 RPI teams or better to earn the qualification.  So for teams like Houston in fringy conferences, expect the qualification to cause jerky fluctuations.
  • Boise State had its first real challenge in conference in years with Air Force making things hard.  Could this be a bad omen when TCU comes a callin?  They will probably keep dropping slowly as their schedule gets softer.  That said, the MWC provides significant risk reduction on that front.

How do the schedules stack up after week 7? (opponents win-loss, avg of opponent winloss, and opponents’ opponent winloss)

Hardest:

  1. Texas A&M (29-12, .609)
  2. Oklahoma State (26-16, .608)
  3. Texas (25-12, .607)
  4. Auburn (34-16, .603)
  5. Oklahoma (26-16, .599)
  6. Kansas (31.5-13.7, .595)
  7. Notre Dame (29-13, .591)
  8. Alabama (30-20, .579)
  9. Tennessee (29.5-16.7, .575)
  10. Miami-FL (28.5-17.7, .573)

Easiest

  1. Northern Illinois (16.5-35.7, .415)
  2. Colorado State (13.5-30.7, .415)
  3. Ohio (17.5-34.7, .413)
  4. Memphis (16.5-32.7, .408)
  5. Hawaii (13.5-29.7, .403)
  6. Western Kentucky (14.5-28.3, .397)
  7. Middle Tennessee State (13-24, .393)
  8. Wyoming (12-26.5, .391)
  9. Tulane (15.5-34.7, .385)
  10. New Mexico State (14-29, .381)

Really the Big 12 has been the best conference in the country this season – the SEC’s bottom has been worse than normal I think – and that has offset some of the power numbers at the top.  That said, Nov 5 cannot come soon enough.  Doing BCS placement this week – finally some change!

First, automatics:

  • SEC: Alabama (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (3)
  • ACC: Clemson (5)
  • Pac 12: Stanford (7)
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (10)
  • Big East: Cincinnati (11)
  • Non AQ: Boise State (4)
  • Top 3 non-winner: LSU (2)

Two at-large seats to fill from the Top 16.  Kansas State (6) and Michigan (8) get the honors.  To the BCS-mobile

  • BCS Title Game: Alabama vs Oklahoma State
  • Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs Stanford
  • Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Michigan
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Boise State
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Cincinnati
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