2011 NCAA Power Rankings #7

Well, a couple more of the unbeatens have been farmed out.  It is a bit too dramatic to say that Clemson is a pretender – though Kansas State seemed like it.  There is a difference between a clear, but fairly competitive 31-17 loss to Georgia Tech and being totally blown away by a peer like K-State was.  We saw Stanford survive a scare from USC – and maybe now they are free and clear until Oregon.  And of course, our #1 and #2 teams were on byes as they await the moment of judgment Saturday night.  As always, the rankings are a combination of RPI, adjusted scoring margin, record vs good teams, record vs common opponents and head to head results.

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Alabama 8 0 0.783 (2) 34.23 (1) 119
2 LSU 8 0 0.78 (3) 32.437 (2) 118
3 Boise State 7 0 0.772 (4) 31.306 (3) 117
4 Oklahoma State 8 0 0.8 (1) 30.748 (4) 117
5 Stanford 8 0 0.759 (5) 30.121 (6) 116
6 Oklahoma 7 1 0.72 (9) 30.485 (5) 115
7 Michigan 7 1 0.722 (8) 24.294 (9) 113
8 Clemson 8 1 0.729 (7) 17.023 (16) 111
9 Nebraska 7 1 0.72 (10) 17.773 (15) 111
10 Oregon 6 1 0.663 (20) 26.119 (7) 108
11 Penn State 8 1 0.674 (16) 16.226 (20) 108
12 South Carolina 7 1 0.694 (13) 15.128 (22) 106
13 Virginia Tech 8 1 0.693 (14) 14.739 (24) 106
14 Arkansas 7 1 0.711 (11) 12.204 (35) 105
15 Houston 8 0 0.743 (6) 18.367 (13) 105
16 Kansas State 7 1 0.682 (15) 8.729 (46) 105
17 Arizona State 6 2 0.649 (21) 17.953 (14) 103
18 Michigan State 6 2 0.663 (19) 16.251 (18) 101
19 USC 6 2 0.644 (25) 14.688 (26) 100
20 Texas 5 2 0.628 (28) 13.458 (31) 97
21 Texas A&M 5 3 0.564 (43) 21.205 (11) 97
22 Wisconsin 6 2 0.625 (29) 25.994 (8) 97
23 Georgia Tech 7 2 0.669 (17) 13.604 (30) 96
24 Southern Miss 7 1 0.699 (12) 16.227 (19) 95
25 Washington 6 2 0.646 (23) 7.63 (51) 94
26 Cincinnati 6 1 0.668 (18) 16.165 (21) 91
27 Georgia 6 2 0.638 (27) 13.442 (32) 91
28 Ohio State 5 3 0.576 (39) 14.704 (25) 88
29 TCU 6 2 0.592 (35) 14.603 (27) 88
30 Auburn 6 3 0.645 (24) 7.675 (50) 87
31 Illinois 6 3 0.572 (40) 12.13 (36) 87
32 Toledo 5 3 0.579 (36) 16.989 (17) 87
33 North Carolina 6 3 0.594 (34) 10.995 (38) 86
34 West Virginia 6 2 0.614 (30) 13.775 (29) 86
35 Notre Dame 5 3 0.569 (41) 21.868 (10) 84
36 South Florida 4 3 0.516 (61) 12.522 (33) 81
37 Rutgers 5 3 0.546 (49) 12.396 (34) 80
38 Arkansas State 6 2 0.639 (26) 8.915 (45) 79
39 Baylor 4 3 0.566 (42) 9.08 (43) 78
40 Missouri 4 4 0.543 (51) 14.954 (23) 78
41 Tulsa 5 3 0.594 (33) 9.819 (39) 78
42 Miami-FL 4 4 0.504 (67) 11.712 (37) 77
43 Syracuse 5 3 0.553 (46) 4.261 (64) 77
44 SMU 5 3 0.608 (31) 8.312 (48) 76
45 Wyoming 5 2 0.562 (44) -2.732 (94) 76
46 Temple 5 3 0.529 (54) 14.524 (28) 75
47 Florida State 5 3 0.551 (47) 20.03 (12) 73
48 Wake Forest 5 3 0.577 (38) 3.916 (67) 69
49 Western Michigan 5 4 0.548 (48) 6.924 (53) 69
50 Virginia 5 3 0.526 (56) 4.714 (60) 67
51 Eastern Michigan 5 3 0.577 (37) -5.111 (97) 66
52 Texas Tech 5 3 0.539 (53) 3.787 (68) 66
53 Nevada 5 3 0.604 (32) 6.818 (55) 63
54 Mississippi State 4 4 0.54 (52) 8.699 (47) 62
55 BYU 6 3 0.546 (50) 5.793 (56) 57
56 UCLA 4 4 0.517 (60) 2.01 (74) 57
57 Florida 4 4 0.509 (64) 9.718 (40) 56
58 Utah 4 4 0.503 (68) 5.124 (59) 56
59 Iowa 5 3 0.525 (57) 6.918 (54) 53
60 Louisville 4 4 0.482 (73) 4.013 (66) 53
61 San Diego State 4 3 0.508 (65) 9.127 (42) 52
62 Tennessee 3 5 0.411 (88) 9.466 (41) 52
63 FIU 5 3 0.526 (55) 4.291 (63) 51
64 Pittsburgh 4 4 0.414 (83) 6.998 (52) 51
65 Iowa State 4 4 0.507 (66) -1.522 (90) 50
66 NC State 4 4 0.485 (71) 1.663 (75) 50
67 Northern Illinois 5 3 0.524 (58) 4.124 (65) 50
68 Ohio 5 3 0.523 (59) 5.777 (57) 50
69 Purdue 4 4 0.471 (76) 3.677 (69) 50
70 California 4 4 0.514 (63) 0.717 (83) 49
71 Ball State 5 4 0.515 (62) -1.496 (89) 47
72 LA-Lafayette 7 2 0.646 (22) 2.215 (73) 47
73 Louisiana Tech 4 4 0.482 (72) 7.973 (49) 47
74 Marshall 4 5 0.499 (69) 1.538 (76) 47
75 Utah State 2 5 0.323 (111) 5.24 (58) 45
76 Air Force 4 4 0.473 (75) 2.713 (72) 44
77 Bowling Green 4 5 0.456 (78) 1.318 (77) 44
78 Hawaii 5 3 0.557 (45) 1.161 (79) 41
79 Vanderbilt 4 4 0.454 (79) 9.071 (44) 41
80 UCF 4 4 0.456 (77) 4.601 (61) 40
81 Connecticut 3 5 0.408 (89) 0.95 (81) 39
82 UTEP 4 4 0.478 (74) 3.542 (70) 39
83 Northwestern 3 5 0.447 (81) 4.495 (62) 37
84 San Jose State 3 5 0.453 (80) 0.018 (85) 37
85 Arizona 2 6 0.36 (104) 0.424 (84) 33
86 East Carolina 4 4 0.487 (70) -0.411 (86) 33
87 Duke 3 5 0.411 (87) 0.736 (82) 31
88 Central Michigan 3 6 0.412 (85) -10.702 (111) 30
89 Washington State 3 5 0.413 (84) -0.797 (87) 30
90 Maryland 2 6 0.333 (109) 1.16 (80) 28
91 Oregon State 3 6 0.412 (86) 1.239 (78) 28
92 Fresno State 3 5 0.405 (91) -1.434 (88) 27
93 Navy 2 6 0.378 (99) 2.861 (71) 24
94 Miami-OH 3 5 0.402 (92) -2.676 (93) 23
95 Kentucky 3 5 0.397 (94) -5.544 (99) 20
96 North Texas 3 6 0.406 (90) -6.024 (100) 20
97 Kansas 2 6 0.383 (98) -11.438 (112) 19
98 Ole Miss 2 6 0.387 (96) -3.248 (96) 19
99 Army 3 5 0.365 (103) -2.427 (91) 17
100 Boston College 2 6 0.365 (101) -2.501 (92) 17
101 Western Kentucky 4 4 0.44 (82) -6.565 (103) 17
102 LA-Monroe 2 6 0.365 (102) -3.019 (95) 16
103 New Mexico State 3 5 0.394 (95) -5.509 (98) 16
104 Rice 2 6 0.383 (97) -6.651 (104) 16
105 Troy 2 5 0.367 (100) -7.579 (105) 14
106 MTSU 2 5 0.35 (105) -6.518 (102) 13
107 Kent State 2 6 0.343 (106) -6.355 (101) 12
108 Buffalo 2 7 0.296 (115) -9.016 (109) 11
109 Colorado 1 8 0.326 (110) -7.794 (107) 10
110 Minnesota 2 6 0.335 (108) -9.694 (110) 9
111 UNLV 2 5 0.336 (107) -16.25 (115) 8
112 Colorado State 3 5 0.398 (93) -12.305 (114) 7
113 Indiana 1 8 0.277 (116) -8.978 (108) 5
114 Memphis 2 7 0.323 (112) -19.372 (118) 4
115 Akron 1 7 0.268 (118) -11.703 (113) 3
116 Idaho 1 7 0.246 (119) -7.714 (106) 3
117 Tulane 2 7 0.303 (114) -18.312 (117) 3
118 UAB 1 7 0.27 (117) -18.099 (116) 3
119 Non FBS 6 86 0.308 (113) -20.256 (120) 2
120 Florida Atlantic 0 7 0.246 (120) -20.222 (119) 1
121 New Mexico 0 8 0.217 (121) -24.853 (121) 0

As expected, #1 and #2 are the same as they ever were.  Indeed the Top 5 teams are almost incontrovertible at this point.  Any other notes?

  • Oklahoma leaps back up to #6 with their 58-17 destruction of otherwise unbeaten Kansas State.  Similarly, adding K-State’s record to their resume, Oklahoma has the honor of the nation’s toughest schedule to date.  Indeed, Oklahoma, Okie State, Texas and Kansas are all in the Top 10.  The Big 12 has been the best conference in the country this year top to bottom.
  • Houston has bounced up and down mostly due to vagaries in how many tough teams they have played.  Right now, the tough team component is not high enough so they are not in the Top 10.  Perhaps that changes, who knows?
  • Alabama-LSU, Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech and Stanford-Oregon over the next two weeks.  Not bad,

So the impact on the BCS projection?

Automatic seeds:

  • SEC: Alabama (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (3)
  • Pac 12: Stanford (5)
  • Big Ten: Michigan (7)
  • ACC: Clemson (8)
  • Big East: Cincinnati (26)
  • NonAQ: Boise State (4)
  • LSU automatic as a top 4 team that is also an at-large

Looking at the Top 16, Oklahoma (6) and Nebraska (9) seem to be the most sensible of the Top 16.  They also double as the two highest ranked teams.  What does this do to the BCS picture?

  • BCS Title Game: Alabama vs Oklahoma State
  • Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Michigan
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Nebraska
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Boise State
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Cincinnati

This is a pretty fun field, and extra points for bringing old dance partners Oklahoma and Nebraska back together.  As a practical matter, one of Michigan and Nebraska will fade with another loss – but I did not want to broach that quite yet.  Penn State has a better Big Ten record than either, but they still have a lot of tough games left.

How would the field look now if we considered an NCAA tournament?  Well, if we use a 24 team model with 11 automatics and 13 at-larges …

Automatic Bids:

  • SEC: Alabama (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (3)
  • Mountain West: Boise State (4)
  • Pac 12: Stanford (5)
  • Big Ten: Michigan (7)
  • ACC: Clemson (8)
  • Conference USA: Houston (15)
  • Big East: Cincinnati (26)
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas State (38)
  • WAC: Nevada (53)
  • Toledo: (32)

At-Large (13) …

  • LSU (2)
  • Oklahoma (6)
  • Nebraska (9)
  • Oregon (10)
  • Penn State (11)
  • South Carolina (12)
  • Virginia Tech (13)
  • Arkansas (14)
  • Kansas State (16)
  • Arizona State (17)
  • Michigan State (18)
  • USC (19)
  • Texas (20)

The Regions:

NEW ORLEANS (#1 overall):

  • (1) Alabama vs (4/5) Kansas State or Arizona State
  • (2) Clemson vs (3/6) Nebraska or Nevada

PASADENA (#4 overall):

  • (1) Boise State vs (4/5) Virginia Tech or Texas
  • (2) Stanford vs (3/6) South Carolina or Cincinnati

MIAMI (#2 overall):

  • (1) LSU vs (4/5) Houston or Michigan State
  • (2) Oklahoma State vs (3/6) Penn State or Arkansas State

GLENDALE (#3 overall):

  • (1) Oklahoma State vs (4/5) Arkansas or Southern California
  • (2) Michigan vs (3/6) Oregon or Toledo
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