2011 College Basketball – Fitting the College Hockey Curve #1

Hey it’s early, and honestly this it to tide me over before the NBA season starts (if ever). There is a reason the NCAA does not publish the RPI right away. That said, there are enough games for analysis. We use the college hockey comparisons in full (RPI, record vs good teams, record vs common opponents, head to head).

Rank Team W L RPI PairWins
1 Gonzaga 3 0 0.869 (1) 345
2 Xavier 3 0 0.854 (2) 344
3 Virginia Tech 3 0 0.846 (3) 343
4 Syracuse 4 0 0.844 (4) 342
5 Memphis 1 0 0.842 (5) 341
6 Alabama 5 0 0.84 (6) 340
7 Kentucky 4 0 0.834 (7) 339
8 Northwestern 4 0 0.834 (8) 338
9 Denver 3 0 0.831 (9) 337
10 Oklahoma State 3 0 0.818 (10) 336
11 Minnesota 3 0 0.803 (11) 335
12 Duke 4 0 0.783 (12) 334
13 Providence 3 0 0.778 (13) 333
14 Miami-FL 3 0 0.777 (14) 332
15 Villanova 3 0 0.777 (15) 331
16 Creighton 4 0 0.775 (17) 329
17 Houston 3 0 0.773 (18) 328
18 Marquette 4 0 0.771 (19) 327
19 Charleston 3 0 0.77 (20) 326
20 Baylor 3 0 0.766 (21) 325
21 Georgia 3 0 0.765 (22) 324
22 North Carolina 3 0 0.751 (24) 322
23 Massachusetts 3 0 0.751 (25) 321
24 North Dakota State 4 0 0.746 (26) 320
25 Missouri 3 0 0.74 (29) 317
26 Louisville 3 0 0.736 (30) 316
27 Indiana State 3 0 0.736 (31) 315
28 Florida State 4 0 0.733 (32) 314
29 Wisconsin 3 0 0.732 (33) 313
30 Ohio 3 0 0.731 (34) 312
31 Stanford 4 0 0.728 (35) 311
32 Connecticut 4 0 0.728 (36) 310
33 Saint Louis 3 0 0.713 (41) 305
34 Auburn 2 0 0.705 (43) 303
35 Ohio State 3 0 0.703 (44) 302
36 California 3 0 0.703 (45) 301
37 Wake Forest 3 0 0.701 (46) 300
38 Cleveland State 3 0 0.686 (52) 294
39 Purdue 4 1 0.689 (49) 287
40 Washington State 2 1 0.71 (42) 285
41 Saint Joseph’s 3 1 0.685 (53) 284
42 Temple 3 1 0.681 (56) 281
43 Arizona 4 1 0.687 (51) 281
44 Oregon State 4 0 0.665 (66) 281
45 Weber State 3 0 0.662 (69) 277
46 CS-Bakersfield 2 1 0.676 (60) 277
47 Seton Hall 3 1 0.677 (59) 276
48 Rutgers 3 1 0.665 (64) 272
49 San Diego State 5 1 0.665 (65) 271
50 Saint Mary’s 2 0 0.628 (81) 266
51 Fresno State 2 1 0.653 (72) 266
52 Washington 3 1 0.646 (73) 265
53 LaSalle 2 1 0.644 (74) 264
54 Mississippi State 4 1 0.623 (83) 264
55 Northern Iowa 2 1 0.642 (76) 262
56 Coastal Carolina 4 0 0.619 (85) 261
57 Kent State 2 0 0.776 (16) 259
58 Vanderbilt 3 1 0.633 (80) 259
59 DePaul 2 0 0.756 (23) 258
60 Campbell 3 0 0.743 (27) 258
61 Lehigh 4 2 0.622 (84) 257
62 New Mexico State 3 0 0.74 (28) 256
63 Richmond 3 1 0.607 (91) 255
64 Tulane 3 0 0.724 (38) 255
65 Siena 2 0 0.728 (37) 255
66 Notre Dame 4 0 0.716 (39) 253
67 Penn State 4 1 0.609 (89) 253
68 Nebraska 3 0 0.714 (40) 252
69 Wagner 3 1 0.691 (48) 251
70 TX-San Antonio 2 1 0.7 (47) 251
71 Belmont 2 2 0.643 (75) 249
72 UNLV 4 0 0.689 (50) 249
73 Georgetown 2 0 0.685 (54) 248
74 Kansas State 2 0 0.683 (55) 247
75 Indiana 4 0 0.68 (57) 246
76 Murray State 4 0 0.678 (58) 245
77 Tennessee 2 0 0.673 (61) 244
78 Missouri State 3 0 0.667 (62) 243
79 Illinois 3 0 0.666 (63) 242
80 Harvard 3 0 0.663 (67) 241
81 Texas Tech 3 0 0.662 (68) 240
82 Long Beach State 2 1 0.653 (71) 239
83 Marshall 3 0 0.661 (70) 239
84 Milwaukee 4 0 0.636 (78) 237
85 Bradley 3 0 0.639 (77) 237
86 Michigan 3 0 0.633 (79) 235
87 Hofstra 2 1 0.571 (109) 234
88 Manhattan 2 1 0.625 (82) 234
89 Oklahoma 2 0 0.615 (86) 233
90 Pennsylvania 3 1 0.571 (110) 233
91 Loyola-MD 3 1 0.61 (87) 232
92 Rice 3 0 0.608 (90) 231
93 Iona 2 1 0.61 (88) 231
94 San Francisco 4 1 0.602 (92) 229
95 FIU 1 1 0.601 (93) 228
96 Eastern Illinois 2 1 0.6 (94) 227
97 LSU 3 2 0.577 (105) 227
98 East Tennessee State 2 1 0.6 (95) 226
99 Ole Miss 3 1 0.596 (96) 226
100 Texas A&M 3 1 0.595 (97) 225
101 Arkansas 2 1 0.564 (119) 225
102 Iowa State 2 1 0.561 (123) 224
103 Oregon 2 1 0.593 (98) 223
104 Lamar 2 2 0.568 (112) 223
105 Charlotte 2 1 0.592 (99) 222
106 Miami-OH 1 1 0.563 (121) 222
107 MTSU 4 1 0.586 (100) 221
108 Portland State 1 1 0.585 (101) 220
109 Youngstown State 3 0 0.585 (102) 219
110 Northeastern 2 1 0.579 (103) 218
111 Fairfield 2 2 0.565 (117) 217
112 Eastern Michigan 3 1 0.579 (104) 217
113 Air Force 3 0 0.552 (129) 217
114 Oakland 1 2 0.576 (106) 216
115 UC-Santa Barbara 3 0 0.576 (107) 215
116 NC State 3 1 0.57 (111) 214
117 Boise State 3 0 0.571 (108) 214
118 Clemson 2 1 0.567 (113) 212
119 Cal Poly 2 1 0.566 (114) 211
120 Utah State 2 1 0.566 (115) 210
121 Iowa 3 1 0.565 (116) 209
122 Pepperdine 2 1 0.565 (118) 208
123 Florida 2 1 0.563 (120) 207
124 Southern Miss 2 1 0.56 (124) 206
125 Niagara 1 1 0.563 (121) 206
126 TX-Arlington 2 0 0.559 (125) 204
127 Illinois State 2 1 0.557 (126) 203
128 Virginia 3 1 0.557 (127) 202
129 Robert Morris 2 1 0.554 (128) 201
130 American 2 2 0.551 (130) 200
131 James Madison 1 1 0.551 (131) 199
132 Toledo 2 1 0.548 (132) 198
133 Kennesaw State 1 2 0.538 (133) 197
134 Stetson 3 1 0.537 (134) 196
135 Colgate 1 2 0.536 (135) 195
136 Tulsa 3 2 0.535 (136) 194
137 Long Island 2 3 0.528 (139) 194
138 Valparaiso 5 1 0.528 (138) 193
139 Sacred Heart 2 2 0.535 (137) 193
140 Norfolk State 3 1 0.521 (140) 192
141 Old Dominion 3 2 0.509 (149) 190
142 Portland 2 2 0.52 (141) 190
143 George Washington 1 1 0.519 (143) 189
144 Eastern Kentucky 3 3 0.52 (142) 189
145 Buffalo 2 1 0.519 (144) 187
146 Bowling Green 1 1 0.518 (145) 186
147 CS-Fullerton 3 1 0.515 (146) 185
148 Drake 3 1 0.497 (160) 185
149 Dayton 2 1 0.513 (147) 184
150 Michigan State 2 2 0.51 (148) 184
151 Davidson 2 1 0.494 (161) 184
152 Vermont 2 2 0.505 (150) 182
153 IPFW 1 1 0.504 (151) 181
154 Georgia Tech 3 2 0.503 (152) 180
155 Quinnipiac 2 1 0.502 (153) 179
156 VMI 3 1 0.501 (154) 178
157 Albany 1 2 0.501 (155) 177
158 Montana 3 1 0.501 (156) 176
159 Wichita State 2 2 0.5 (157) 175
160 Appalachian State 2 1 0.499 (158) 174
161 Maryland 2 2 0.498 (159) 173
162 Utah Valley 3 1 0.49 (162) 172
163 Mercer 2 1 0.49 (163) 171
164 Elon 2 1 0.489 (164) 170
165 SE Louisiana 2 1 0.489 (165) 169
166 Pittsburgh 2 1 0.467 (178) 168
167 West Virginia 2 1 0.487 (166) 168
168 Oral Roberts 2 2 0.487 (167) 167
169 Mount Saint Mary’s 1 2 0.486 (168) 166
170 Yale 2 1 0.485 (169) 165
171 Eastern Washington 1 2 0.483 (171) 163
172 Montana State 2 1 0.484 (170) 163
173 Colorado State 2 2 0.466 (179) 163
174 Southern Utah 3 2 0.478 (172) 162
175 Fordham 1 1 0.478 (173) 161
176 Saint Bonaventure 1 1 0.473 (174) 160
177 Saint John’s 3 2 0.462 (181) 160
178 SC State 3 1 0.472 (175) 159
179 Lafayette 2 2 0.472 (176) 158
180 Texas 2 1 0.469 (177) 157
181 USC Upstate 3 2 0.463 (180) 156
182 Canisius 1 2 0.462 (182) 155
183 Kansas 1 1 0.456 (183) 154
184 LA-Lafayette 3 3 0.454 (184) 153
185 Detroit 2 1 0.454 (185) 152
186 Hawaii 1 1 0.454 (186) 151
187 Bucknell 1 2 0.452 (187) 150
188 East Carolina 2 1 0.451 (188) 149
189 Tennessee State 2 2 0.451 (189) 147
190 BYU 2 1 0.451 (190) 147
191 North Florida 1 3 0.45 (191) 146
192 Furman 3 1 0.449 (192) 145
193 Sacramento State 2 1 0.448 (193) 144
194 UCF 2 1 0.448 (194) 143
195 VCU 2 2 0.444 (195) 142
196 Alabama A&M 2 1 0.442 (196) 141
197 Duquesne 3 2 0.438 (198) 140
198 South Dakota State 1 2 0.44 (197) 140
199 TCU 3 1 0.429 (207) 139
200 Princeton 1 2 0.433 (204) 138
201 Northwestern State 2 2 0.438 (199) 137
202 George Mason 2 2 0.437 (200) 136
203 Houston Baptist 2 3 0.425 (210) 135
204 New Mexico 2 1 0.434 (202) 135
205 Wyoming 2 1 0.435 (201) 135
206 Texas Southern 1 3 0.431 (206) 135
207 Wright State 2 1 0.434 (203) 134
208 Western Carolina 2 2 0.432 (205) 133
209 Navy 2 2 0.427 (208) 132
210 Jacksonville 1 2 0.427 (209) 130
211 Florida Atlantic 2 3 0.424 (211) 130
212 North Dakota 2 1 0.422 (212) 129
213 Santa Clara 2 1 0.422 (213) 128
214 Nevada 2 2 0.421 (214) 127
215 North Carolina A&T 1 3 0.42 (215) 126
216 Hampton 1 2 0.419 (216) 125
217 Loyola Marymount 1 2 0.418 (217) 124
218 Presbyterian 3 2 0.405 (223) 123
219 Pacific 1 1 0.415 (218) 123
220 Texas State 3 2 0.404 (224) 122
221 AR-Little Rock 2 3 0.412 (219) 122
222 NJIT 2 2 0.41 (220) 121
223 MD-Eastern Shore 1 3 0.401 (225) 120
224 Texas A&M-CC 0 2 0.406 (221) 120
225 Drexel 1 2 0.406 (222) 119
226 Gardner-Webb 2 2 0.401 (226) 118
227 Boston College 1 1 0.399 (227) 116
228 South Florida 3 2 0.387 (230) 116
229 Savannah State 1 3 0.391 (228) 116
230 Cornell 2 2 0.388 (229) 115
231 UTEP 1 2 0.387 (231) 114
232 Marist 1 3 0.386 (232) 113
233 Cincinnati 2 1 0.384 (233) 112
234 North Texas 1 1 0.381 (234) 111
235 Akron 2 2 0.381 (236) 110
236 Holy Cross 1 3 0.381 (235) 110
237 Nicholls State 1 4 0.38 (237) 109
238 Sam Houston State 1 1 0.38 (238) 108
239 Maine 1 1 0.378 (239) 107
240 Charleston Southern 2 2 0.375 (240) 106
241 South Dakota 1 2 0.374 (241) 105
242 Colorado 2 2 0.372 (242) 104
243 Jacksonville State 2 2 0.369 (243) 103
244 Fairleigh Dickinson 1 2 0.356 (245) 101
245 Prairie View A&M 2 2 0.366 (244) 101
246 Evansville 2 1 0.354 (246) 100
247 Dartmouth 1 2 0.353 (247) 99
248 Ball State 0 2 0.347 (248) 97
249 Mississippi Valley 0 3 0.347 (248) 97
250 Radford 3 3 0.347 (250) 96
251 San Jose State 1 3 0.346 (251) 95
252 Bryant 1 3 0.346 (252) 94
253 Green Bay 2 2 0.342 (253) 93
254 NC-Greensboro 2 3 0.342 (254) 92
255 Brown 2 2 0.341 (255) 91
256 Citadel 1 2 0.339 (256) 90
257 South Alabama 1 2 0.338 (257) 89
258 SMU 2 2 0.334 (258) 88
259 USC 1 3 0.331 (259) 87
260 Troy 1 2 0.329 (260) 86
261 Arkansas State 1 3 0.327 (261) 85
262 Alcorn State 1 2 0.326 (262) 84
263 Howard 1 2 0.326 (263) 83
264 Butler 1 2 0.323 (264) 82
265 TX-Pan American 1 4 0.317 (265) 81
266 UAB 0 2 0.309 (266) 80
267 Louisiana Tech 1 1 0.309 (267) 79
268 NB-Omaha 1 2 0.308 (268) 78
269 Western Kentucky 1 4 0.306 (269) 77
270 Morehead State 1 2 0.305 (270) 76
271 Wofford 1 2 0.303 (271) 75
272 Delaware State 1 2 0.302 (272) 74
273 Seattle 0 2 0.3 (273) 73
274 FL Gulf Coast 2 2 0.3 (274) 72
275 Morgan State 0 3 0.298 (275) 71
276 William and Mary 1 5 0.298 (276) 70
277 Georgia State 1 3 0.297 (277) 69
278 Central Connecticut 1 2 0.289 (278) 68
279 Stony Brook 1 2 0.286 (279) 67
280 San Diego 2 1 0.283 (280) 66
281 McNeese State 1 2 0.282 (281) 65
282 Idaho 1 2 0.279 (282) 64
283 High Point 1 2 0.276 (283) 63
284 Liberty 2 4 0.275 (284) 62
285 Northern Illinois 0 4 0.273 (285) 61
286 Monmouth 0 3 0.271 (286) 60
287 SE Missouri State 1 3 0.268 (287) 59
288 UC-Riverside 1 2 0.266 (288) 58
289 Arizona State 1 2 0.266 (289) 57
290 Southern 1 2 0.265 (290) 56
291 Winthrop 0 4 0.265 (291) 55
292 Chicago State 0 3 0.265 (292) 54
293 Stephen F Austin 1 2 0.264 (293) 53
294 LA-Monroe 0 4 0.26 (294) 52
295 Saint Francis-NY 0 3 0.26 (295) 51
296 Northern Colorado 0 3 0.259 (296) 50
297 TN-Martin 1 3 0.258 (297) 49
298 Grambling State 0 4 0.258 (298) 48
299 Central Michigan 1 1 0.258 (299) 47
300 UCLA 0 2 0.256 (300) 46
301 Bethune-Cookman 1 2 0.256 (301) 45
302 South Carolina 1 2 0.254 (302) 44
303 Coppin State 1 3 0.25 (303) 43
304 Florida A&M 0 3 0.249 (304) 42
305 AR-Pine Bluff 0 2 0.248 (305) 41
306 SIU-Edwardsville 0 2 0.247 (306) 40
307 Idaho State 1 2 0.245 (307) 39
308 Columbia 0 3 0.244 (308) 38
309 NC-Asheville 1 2 0.242 (309) 37
310 NC Central 1 3 0.238 (310) 36
311 Saint Peter’s 1 3 0.238 (311) 35
312 Northern Arizona 1 3 0.237 (312) 34
313 UMBC 0 4 0.236 (313) 33
314 Chattanooga 0 3 0.236 (314) 32
315 Loyola-IL 0 4 0.235 (315) 31
316 Austin Peay 0 3 0.235 (316) 30
317 Georgia Southern 1 2 0.223 (317) 29
318 Jackson State 1 4 0.221 (318) 28
319 Tennessee Tech 1 2 0.214 (319) 27
320 Illinois-Chicago 1 2 0.213 (320) 26
321 Rhode Island 0 3 0.212 (321) 25
322 Western Michigan 0 4 0.208 (322) 24
323 Hartford 0 4 0.207 (323) 23
324 New Hampshire 1 2 0.206 (324) 22
325 UC-Irvine 0 3 0.205 (325) 21
326 Rider 0 4 0.2 (326) 20
327 Delaware 0 2 0.2 (327) 19
328 Army 1 3 0.196 (328) 18
329 Western Illinois 0 2 0.191 (329) 17
330 IUPUI 1 3 0.189 (330) 16
331 NC-Wilmington 0 2 0.188 (331) 15
332 MO-Kansas City 1 3 0.186 (332) 14
333 Alabama State 0 4 0.184 (333) 13
334 Samford 0 2 0.183 (334) 12
335 UC-Davis 1 4 0.183 (335) 11
336 CS-Northridge 0 3 0.181 (336) 10
337 Boston U 0 3 0.181 (337) 9
338 Towson 0 4 0.181 (338) 8
339 Saint Francis-PA 0 3 0.17 (339) 7
340 Utah 1 2 0.164 (340) 6
341 Lipscomb 1 3 0.164 (341) 5
342 Longwood 1 3 0.15 (342) 4
343 Z-Others 4 129 0.137 (343) 3
344 Southern Illinois 0 3 0.121 (344) 2
345 Binghamton 0 4 0.12 (345) 1
346 Central Arkansas 0 3 0.084 (346) 0

Plug in the conferences:

  1. America East: Vermont (152)
  2. Atlantic 10: Xavier (2)
  3. ACC: Virginia Tech (3)
  4. Atlantic Sun: Belmont (71)
  5. Big 12: Oklahoma State (10)
  6. Big East: Syracuse (4)
  7. Big Sky: Weber State (45)
  8. Big South: Coastal Carolina (56)
  9. Big Ten: Northwestern (8)
  10. Big West: Long Beach State (82)
  11. Colonial: Hofstra (87)
  12. Conference USA: Memphis (5)
  13. Horizon: Cleveland State (38)
  14. Ivy: Harvard (80)
  15. Metro-Atlantic: Siena (65)
  16. Mid-American: Ohio (30)
  17. MEAC: Norfolk State (140)
  18. Missouri Valley: Creighton (16)
  19. Mountain West: San Diego State (49)
  20. Northeast: Wagner (69)
  21. Ohio Valley: Murray State (76)
  22. Pac-12: Stanford (31)
  23. Patriot: Lehigh (61)
  24. SEC: Alabama (6)
  25. Southern: Charleston (19)
  26. Southland: TX-San Antonio (70)
  27. SWAC: Alabama A&M (196)
  28. Summit: North Dakota State (24)
  29. Sun Belt: Denver (9)
  30. West Coast: Gonzaga (1)
  31. WAC: Fresno State (51)

The Top 4 lines of the S-Curve:

Region A:

  1. Gonzaga
  2. Northwestern
  3. Denver
  4. Creighton

Region B:

  1. Xavier
  2. Kentucky
  3. Oklahoma State
  4. Minnesota

Region C:

  1. Virginia Tech
  2. Alabama
  3. Minnesota
  4. Miami-FL

Region D:

  1. Syracuse
  2. Memphis
  3. Duke
  4. Providence

 

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