2011 College Basketball – Fitting the College Hockey Curve #1

Woo hoo, the NBA is back. That said, the template is there to do college ball, so let’s stick with it.  With North Carolina, the eye-test #1, slipping due to a surprisingly entertaining loss at UNLV in the Las Vegas Showdown, there is some room in this embryonic stage for some shifting to take place.  There is a reason the NCAA does not publish the RPI right away. That said, there are enough games for analysis. We use the college hockey comparisons in full (RPI, record vs good teams, record vs common opponents, head to head).

Rank Team W L RPI PairWins
1 Alabama 7 0 0.813 (1) 345
2 Duke 7 0 0.788 (3) 343
3 Syracuse 6 0 0.808 (2) 343
4 Saint Louis 6 0 0.768 (6) 340
5 Kentucky 6 0 0.788 (4) 336
6 Missouri 6 0 0.747 (11) 335
7 Louisville 5 0 0.774 (5) 335
8 Marquette 5 0 0.741 (12) 334
9 UNLV 7 0 0.761 (7) 334
10 Northwestern 5 0 0.752 (10) 331
11 Illinois 6 0 0.739 (14) 329
12 Xavier 4 0 0.734 (15) 328
13 Harvard 6 0 0.73 (16) 327
14 Baylor 5 0 0.726 (17) 326
15 Gonzaga 4 0 0.757 (8) 326
16 Creighton 5 0 0.757 (9) 325
17 Ohio State 6 0 0.715 (22) 324
18 Missouri State 4 0 0.74 (13) 324
19 Kansas State 3 0 0.721 (19) 322
20 Wisconsin 6 0 0.708 (25) 321
21 Cleveland State 6 1 0.704 (26) 320
22 San Diego State 7 1 0.724 (18) 317
23 Minnesota 6 1 0.709 (23) 316
24 Virginia Tech 5 1 0.717 (21) 315
25 Murray State 7 0 0.684 (33) 313
26 Dayton 5 1 0.696 (28) 312
27 Denver 4 1 0.686 (30) 309
28 Auburn 3 0 0.682 (37) 308
29 California 5 1 0.683 (34) 307
30 Oregon 3 1 0.718 (20) 306
31 Seton Hall 5 1 0.669 (43) 299
32 Stanford 5 1 0.677 (38) 298
33 Iowa State 5 1 0.672 (41) 295
34 Vanderbilt 5 1 0.654 (52) 293
35 Connecticut 6 1 0.651 (54) 290
36 CS-Bakersfield 3 1 0.665 (48) 289
37 Weber State 4 0 0.646 (57) 288
38 New Mexico State 5 1 0.665 (49) 288
39 Iona 3 1 0.661 (50) 287
40 Purdue 6 1 0.655 (51) 286
41 Saint Joseph’s 4 2 0.666 (45) 285
42 Campbell 5 1 0.699 (27) 282
43 Northern Iowa 5 1 0.688 (29) 280
44 Ole Miss 5 1 0.633 (65) 280
45 Pittsburgh 5 1 0.642 (62) 279
46 Washington 4 1 0.684 (32) 279
47 Oregon State 5 1 0.676 (39) 278
48 Davidson 4 1 0.683 (35) 278
49 George Washington 4 1 0.673 (40) 275
50 North Carolina 5 1 0.67 (42) 274
51 East Tennessee State 3 1 0.668 (44) 273
52 Georgia 4 2 0.625 (70) 273
53 Charleston 5 1 0.648 (56) 269
54 Long Beach State 3 2 0.621 (72) 267
55 Ohio 3 1 0.644 (59) 266
56 Southern Miss 4 2 0.617 (75) 264
57 UCF 4 2 0.617 (76) 264
58 Robert Morris 4 2 0.643 (61) 264
59 Indiana State 6 1 0.641 (64) 262
60 American 4 2 0.633 (67) 260
61 Saint Mary’s 3 1 0.625 (71) 257
62 Nebraska 4 1 0.621 (73) 256
63 Michigan 5 1 0.618 (74) 255
64 Belmont 2 2 0.616 (77) 254
65 Mississippi State 7 1 0.593 (92) 253
66 NC State 5 1 0.608 (85) 246
67 Valparaiso 5 2 0.593 (93) 246
68 Massachusetts 5 2 0.592 (96) 245
69 Arkansas 4 1 0.585 (102) 244
70 Florida State 5 2 0.582 (104) 243
71 Penn State 5 2 0.586 (101) 242
72 Oklahoma 4 1 0.593 (91) 241
73 Virginia 5 1 0.582 (105) 240
74 Montana 4 2 0.597 (90) 240
75 Lamar 4 2 0.644 (60) 238
76 Temple 3 2 0.616 (78) 233
77 Norfolk State 4 2 0.609 (83) 228
78 Arizona 4 2 0.558 (117) 228
79 Santa Clara 4 2 0.559 (116) 228
80 Michigan State 4 2 0.6 (88) 225
81 Miami-OH 2 2 0.565 (113) 225
82 Toledo 4 1 0.544 (123) 223
83 Richmond 4 2 0.593 (94) 222
84 Duquesne 4 2 0.574 (106) 215
85 South Florida 5 2 0.537 (131) 215
86 North Dakota State 6 0 0.708 (24) 212
87 Marshall 5 0 0.684 (31) 208
88 Tulane 7 0 0.665 (46) 208
89 TCU 4 2 0.564 (114) 208
90 Indiana 6 0 0.683 (36) 207
91 Wagner 5 1 0.665 (47) 207
92 South Dakota State 4 3 0.599 (89) 207
93 Wake Forest 4 2 0.533 (137) 206
94 Kansas 3 2 0.551 (120) 205
95 Northeastern 3 1 0.654 (53) 205
96 Colorado State 4 2 0.527 (143) 205
97 Oakland 3 2 0.65 (55) 203
98 Pepperdine 3 2 0.53 (140) 203
99 Milwaukee 5 1 0.644 (58) 202
100 Utah State 3 2 0.529 (141) 202
101 Miami-FL 4 1 0.641 (63) 201
102 Wichita State 3 2 0.526 (145) 201
103 DePaul 4 1 0.631 (69) 200
104 Coastal Carolina 5 1 0.632 (68) 200
105 UC-Santa Barbara 4 1 0.528 (142) 200
106 George Mason 4 2 0.527 (144) 200
107 Florida 4 1 0.633 (66) 200
108 Georgetown 4 1 0.614 (79) 198
109 Wyoming 6 1 0.614 (80) 198
110 Georgia Tech 4 2 0.52 (148) 197
111 Kent State 2 1 0.521 (147) 197
112 Youngstown State 4 1 0.613 (81) 196
113 Bucknell 5 2 0.601 (86) 195
114 Lehigh 4 2 0.61 (82) 195
115 Texas A&M 4 1 0.601 (87) 194
116 Eastern Washington 3 2 0.609 (84) 194
117 Long Island 2 3 0.518 (150) 194
118 Vermont 4 2 0.592 (95) 192
119 South Alabama 2 2 0.588 (97) 191
120 Portland State 4 2 0.588 (99) 189
121 East Carolina 4 1 0.588 (98) 189
122 West Virginia 3 1 0.51 (158) 187
123 Loyola-MD 4 1 0.586 (100) 187
124 Drake 4 2 0.52 (149) 186
125 TX-San Antonio 4 3 0.539 (127) 186
126 MTSU 6 1 0.583 (103) 186
127 SC State 4 2 0.571 (107) 185
128 Saint Bonaventure 2 2 0.571 (108) 184
129 Charlotte 3 2 0.569 (110) 183
130 Cal Poly 4 2 0.57 (109) 183
131 Maryland 3 2 0.513 (155) 182
132 Maine 2 1 0.566 (111) 181
133 Yale 3 2 0.565 (112) 180
134 Elon 3 2 0.56 (115) 180
135 Charleston Southern 3 2 0.51 (159) 179
136 Boise State 4 1 0.556 (118) 178
137 Albany 4 3 0.553 (119) 177
138 Oklahoma State 3 2 0.51 (161) 177
139 Akron 3 2 0.51 (160) 177
140 Providence 4 2 0.545 (121) 176
141 Buffalo 3 1 0.545 (122) 175
142 Mercer 4 2 0.544 (124) 174
143 Bowling Green 4 2 0.506 (163) 174
144 New Mexico 4 2 0.541 (125) 174
145 USC Upstate 5 2 0.538 (128) 172
146 McNeese State 3 2 0.54 (126) 172
147 Illinois State 4 2 0.538 (129) 170
148 VCU 3 3 0.537 (130) 169
149 Florida Atlantic 3 4 0.509 (162) 169
150 Tulsa 4 3 0.536 (132) 168
151 Central Michigan 4 2 0.496 (169) 168
152 Oral Roberts 4 2 0.535 (134) 167
153 BYU 4 2 0.535 (133) 167
154 Western Illinois 2 2 0.535 (135) 166
155 Villanova 4 2 0.532 (138) 164
156 James Madison 3 2 0.534 (136) 164
157 SE Missouri State 3 3 0.489 (174) 163
158 Eastern Illinois 3 2 0.531 (139) 162
159 Colorado 3 2 0.521 (146) 162
160 San Francisco 5 3 0.516 (151) 160
161 Wofford 3 3 0.515 (152) 159
162 FIU 2 3 0.47 (189) 159
163 Colgate 2 3 0.515 (153) 158
164 VMI 3 2 0.514 (154) 157
165 Notre Dame 5 2 0.512 (156) 156
166 Stetson 3 2 0.512 (157) 155
167 Fairfield 3 4 0.499 (165) 155
168 Stephen F Austin 2 2 0.502 (164) 154
169 Jacksonville 2 3 0.498 (166) 151
170 Appalachian State 3 2 0.497 (168) 150
171 CS-Fullerton 3 2 0.496 (170) 149
172 Sacred Heart 4 3 0.498 (167) 149
173 Eastern Michigan 4 2 0.494 (171) 148
174 Manhattan 3 3 0.494 (172) 147
175 Iowa 4 2 0.49 (173) 146
176 Memphis 2 2 0.466 (193) 146
177 Georgia State 3 3 0.465 (194) 145
178 LSU 3 3 0.472 (188) 145
179 Texas State 4 2 0.461 (200) 145
180 Presbyterian 3 3 0.488 (175) 144
181 Rice 4 2 0.486 (177) 144
182 Portland 2 4 0.469 (191) 144
183 LaSalle 3 3 0.467 (192) 143
184 Northwestern State 3 3 0.487 (176) 142
185 Tennessee 3 2 0.484 (179) 141
186 Furman 3 2 0.486 (178) 141
187 North Carolina A&T 3 3 0.482 (180) 140
188 San Diego 4 2 0.461 (201) 139
189 North Florida 3 4 0.481 (182) 138
190 Tennessee State 3 4 0.482 (181) 138
191 Ball State 2 2 0.479 (183) 137
192 Old Dominion 3 3 0.459 (204) 136
193 Alabama A&M 2 2 0.479 (184) 136
194 Houston 3 2 0.455 (207) 134
195 Troy 2 3 0.474 (185) 134
196 Idaho 3 2 0.473 (186) 134
197 Utah Valley 3 3 0.464 (195) 132
198 IPFW 2 2 0.469 (190) 132
199 Western Carolina 3 4 0.473 (187) 131
200 Stony Brook 2 3 0.463 (197) 129
201 Lafayette 3 3 0.463 (196) 129
202 Drexel 2 2 0.462 (198) 128
203 Rutgers 3 3 0.461 (199) 127
204 Eastern Kentucky 3 4 0.461 (202) 126
205 Lipscomb 3 3 0.46 (203) 124
206 Morehead State 3 4 0.456 (206) 124
207 Fresno State 2 4 0.435 (218) 124
208 Delaware 2 2 0.457 (205) 123
209 Northern Colorado 2 4 0.455 (209) 121
210 Kennesaw State 2 3 0.451 (210) 120
211 Gardner-Webb 3 5 0.455 (208) 120
212 Clemson 3 2 0.451 (211) 119
213 Pennsylvania 3 4 0.441 (216) 119
214 SMU 4 3 0.448 (212) 118
215 Green Bay 2 4 0.435 (219) 118
216 Quinnipiac 2 2 0.426 (228) 118
217 Texas 3 2 0.448 (213) 117
218 Saint John’s 4 3 0.429 (225) 116
219 Air Force 3 1 0.425 (230) 116
220 Nevada 4 3 0.444 (214) 116
221 Southern Utah 4 3 0.442 (215) 115
222 Siena 2 3 0.439 (217) 114
223 SE Louisiana 3 2 0.435 (220) 112
224 TN-Martin 2 5 0.434 (221) 111
225 Texas A&M-CC 1 3 0.423 (231) 111
226 Loyola Marymount 3 2 0.433 (222) 111
227 Pacific 2 2 0.43 (223) 109
228 Canisius 1 3 0.43 (224) 109
229 Texas Tech 3 3 0.416 (236) 108
230 Hampton 2 3 0.427 (226) 108
231 Boston U 2 4 0.427 (227) 107
232 Butler 3 3 0.426 (229) 106
233 Niagara 2 3 0.423 (232) 105
234 NC-Asheville 3 4 0.419 (233) 104
235 Delaware State 2 3 0.419 (234) 103
236 USC 3 4 0.418 (235) 102
237 Detroit 3 4 0.416 (238) 100
238 TX-Arlington 3 2 0.416 (237) 100
239 Sacramento State 3 2 0.414 (239) 99
240 Radford 3 4 0.413 (240) 98
241 Hofstra 3 4 0.402 (251) 97
242 Navy 3 4 0.413 (241) 97
243 MO-Kansas City 3 4 0.407 (248) 97
244 Seattle 1 2 0.412 (242) 96
245 NC Central 3 3 0.41 (243) 95
246 Washington State 2 4 0.409 (244) 93
247 Houston Baptist 2 4 0.409 (245) 92
248 LA-Lafayette 3 4 0.409 (246) 92
249 Saint Francis-NY 1 4 0.408 (247) 91
250 Tennessee Tech 3 3 0.405 (249) 90
251 North Dakota 3 2 0.392 (257) 89
252 Marist 2 4 0.395 (256) 89
253 Central Connecticut 3 2 0.405 (250) 89
254 NC-Greensboro 2 3 0.401 (252) 88
255 Fordham 1 2 0.4 (253) 86
256 Bradley 3 3 0.395 (255) 86
257 Evansville 2 2 0.399 (254) 86
258 Brown 3 4 0.39 (258) 84
259 Mount Saint Mary’s 1 4 0.388 (259) 83
260 Savannah State 2 5 0.388 (260) 82
261 AR-Pine Bluff 1 3 0.386 (261) 81
262 Louisiana Tech 2 3 0.385 (262) 81
263 Southern 2 4 0.384 (263) 79
264 Howard 2 3 0.384 (264) 77
265 Hawaii 2 2 0.383 (265) 77
266 Coppin State 1 4 0.381 (266) 76
267 Dartmouth 2 4 0.378 (267) 75
268 San Jose State 2 3 0.378 (268) 74
269 Cincinnati 3 2 0.375 (269) 73
270 Boston College 2 4 0.366 (270) 71
271 Mississippi Valley 1 5 0.365 (271) 71
272 Holy Cross 2 4 0.362 (272) 70
273 UC-Riverside 2 4 0.361 (273) 68
274 Wright State 2 4 0.358 (274) 68
275 Nicholls State 1 5 0.357 (275) 67
276 Northern Arizona 2 4 0.355 (276) 66
277 Arizona State 2 4 0.351 (280) 65
278 Arkansas State 1 4 0.354 (277) 65
279 Jacksonville State 2 4 0.353 (278) 64
280 Columbia 1 4 0.353 (279) 63
281 South Dakota 1 3 0.351 (281) 62
282 Montana State 2 3 0.349 (282) 61
283 Princeton 2 5 0.345 (285) 61
284 Texas Southern 1 4 0.349 (283) 60
285 AR-Little Rock 2 4 0.348 (284) 59
286 Samford 1 3 0.344 (286) 58
287 FL Gulf Coast 2 5 0.344 (287) 57
288 Cornell 2 4 0.342 (288) 56
289 Central Arkansas 2 3 0.339 (290) 56
290 Loyola-IL 1 4 0.34 (289) 55
291 UCLA 1 4 0.338 (291) 54
292 North Texas 1 3 0.337 (292) 53
293 High Point 2 3 0.336 (293) 52
294 NJIT 2 3 0.335 (294) 51
295 TX-Pan American 2 5 0.332 (295) 50
296 NB-Omaha 2 4 0.326 (296) 49
297 Southern Illinois 1 3 0.323 (297) 47
298 Citadel 2 3 0.322 (298) 47
299 Liberty 2 5 0.318 (299) 46
300 Jackson State 1 6 0.316 (300) 45
301 Western Kentucky 2 5 0.314 (301) 44
302 Illinois-Chicago 2 3 0.314 (302) 43
303 South Carolina 2 4 0.31 (303) 42
304 IUPUI 2 4 0.307 (304) 41
305 Fairleigh Dickinson 1 4 0.307 (305) 40
306 New Hampshire 1 2 0.306 (306) 39
307 Chattanooga 2 4 0.3 (307) 38
308 Bethune-Cookman 2 4 0.3 (308) 37
309 NC-Wilmington 0 4 0.297 (309) 36
310 Rhode Island 1 5 0.296 (310) 35
311 Saint Peter’s 1 4 0.292 (311) 34
312 Winthrop 1 5 0.29 (312) 33
313 Idaho State 1 4 0.289 (313) 32
314 UAB 1 4 0.288 (314) 31
315 CS-Northridge 1 4 0.288 (315) 30
316 MD-Eastern Shore 1 7 0.284 (316) 30
317 Sam Houston State 1 5 0.281 (317) 29
318 Alcorn State 1 5 0.281 (318) 28
319 Rider 1 6 0.278 (320) 26
320 Bryant 1 5 0.281 (319) 26
321 Western Michigan 0 6 0.277 (321) 25
322 Monmouth 0 6 0.271 (322) 24
323 Longwood 2 5 0.27 (323) 23
324 Grambling State 0 5 0.269 (324) 22
325 Army 2 4 0.269 (325) 21
326 Georgia Southern 1 4 0.266 (326) 20
327 William and Mary 1 6 0.258 (327) 19
328 UTEP 1 3 0.257 (328) 18
329 UC-Davis 1 6 0.256 (329) 17
330 Morgan State 0 6 0.255 (330) 16
331 Prairie View A&M 2 5 0.253 (331) 15
332 Chicago State 0 6 0.252 (332) 14
333 Austin Peay 0 7 0.244 (333) 13
334 Utah 1 5 0.235 (335) 11
335 LA-Monroe 0 6 0.236 (334) 11
336 Northern Illinois 0 5 0.234 (336) 10
337 SIU-Edwardsville 0 4 0.228 (337) 9
338 Towson 0 5 0.217 (338) 8
339 UMBC 0 5 0.21 (339) 7
340 Saint Francis-PA 0 5 0.204 (340) 6
341 Alabama State 0 4 0.198 (341) 5
342 Binghamton 0 5 0.189 (343) 3
343 UC-Irvine 0 6 0.192 (342) 3
344 Hartford 0 6 0.189 (344) 2
345 Florida A&M 0 6 0.169 (345) 1
346 Z-Others 7 177 0.148 (346) 0

Plug in the conferences:

  1. America East: Vermont (118)
  2. Atlantic 10: Saint Louis (4)
  3. ACC: Duke (2)
  4. Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State (51)
  5. Big 12: Missouri (6)
  6. Big East: Syracuse (3)
  7. Big Sky: Weber State (37)
  8. Big South: Campbell (42)
  9. Big Ten: Northwestern (10)
  10. Big West: Long Beach State (54)
  11. Colonial: Northeastern (95)
  12. Conference USA: Southern Miss (56)
  13. Horizon: Cleveland State (21)
  14. Ivy: Harvard (13)
  15. Metro-Atlantic: Iona (39)
  16. Mid-American: Ohio (55)
  17. MEAC: Norfolk State (77)
  18. Missouri Valley: Creighton (16)
  19. Mountain West: UNLV (8)
  20. Northeast: Robert Morris (58)
  21. Ohio Valley: Murray State (25)
  22. Pac-12: California (29)
  23. Patriot: American (60)
  24. SEC: Alabama (1)
  25. Southern: Davidson (48)
  26. Southland: Lamar (75)
  27. SWAC: Alabama A&M (193)
  28. Summit: North Dakota State (86)
  29. Sun Belt: Denver (27)
  30. West Coast: Gonzaga (15)
  31. WAC: New Mexico State (38)

The Top 4 lines of the S-Curve:

Region A:

  1. Alabama
  2. Marquette
  3. UNLV
  4. Creighton

Region B:

  1. Duke
  2. Louisville
  3. Northwestern
  4. Gonzaga

Region C:

  1. Syracuse
  2. Missouri
  3. Illinois
  4. Baylor

Region D:

  1. Saint Louis
  2. Kentucky
  3. Xavier
  4. Harvard
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