College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #13

If the season ended today –  (rankings here🙂

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps.  This week, after looking at the criteria – it felt like we did need at least one “How did they play” component, so we’ve added the Pomeroy Ranking to the composition of the rankings.  Technically this is still only 20% of the crtieria, and at best 50% (since every team can be compared on both RPI and KenPom at the least).  So yes, this is not consistent with the frameworks earlier, but hopefully it is a better one in what the committee should be looking at.

An addtional feature, now that the conference tournaments have started – I tried to apply the bracketing rules now, and so this week’s 68 is internally consistent with what the tournament could look like:

East Region (Boston, Massachusetts – #1 Overall Seed)

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) STONY BROOK/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) Virginia vs (9) HARVARD

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (4) UNLV vs (13) Oregon/South Dakota State
  • (5) Saint Louis vs (12) Virginia Commonwealth

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) Marquette vs (15) AKRON
  • (7) Southern Mississippi vs (10) Purdue

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (3) Missouri vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) Creighton vs (11) Miami-FL

West Region (Phoenix, Arizona – #4 overall seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) North Carolina vs (16) VALPARAISO
  • (8) Iowa State vs (9) San Diego State

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) Northwestern/Xavier
  • (5) New Mexico vs (12) BELMONT

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (2) MICHIGAN STATE vs (15) MONTANA
  • (7) California vs (10) SAINT MARY’S

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (3) TEMPLE vs (14) NEVADA
  • (6) MEMPHIS vs (11) Seton Hall

South Region (Atlanta, Georgia – #2 Overall seed)

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) Florida State vs (9) ORAL ROBERTS

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (4) Gonzaga vs (13) West Virginia
  • (5) Wisconsin vs (12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (7) Alabama vs (10) Kansas State

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (3) Baylor vs (14) WASHINGTON
  • (6) Louisville vs (11) Brigham Young

Midwest Region (Saint Louis, Missouri – #3 Overall Seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) DUKE vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE/SAVANNAH STATE
  • (8) MURRAY STATE vs (9) Connecticut

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (4) Indiana vs (13) Texas
  • (5) Florida vs (12) IONA

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Vanderbilt vs (10) Notre Dame

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (3) WICHITA STATE vs (14) DREXEL
  • (6) Michigan vs (11) LONG BEACH STATE

Last Four In: Oregon, Northwestern, Xavier, South Dakota State

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Arizona, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s

Next Four Out: South Florida, Ohio, Colorado State, Mississippi State

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • Pac 12 (4)
  • Atlantic 10 (3)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Big 12 (6)
  • Big East (8)
  • Colonial (2)
  • ACC (5)
  • West Coast (3)
  • Summit (2)
  • SEC (4)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Mountain West (3)

The NIT Field (the regular season champs below the current at-large cut line, and the remaining at-larges without a home … as spots are clinched, at-large teams join the pool)

  1. Drexel
  2. Cincinnati
  3. Arizona
  4. Dayton
  5. Washington
  6. Saint Joseph’s
  7. South Florida
  8. Ohio
  9. Davidson
  10. Colorado State
  11. Mississippi State
  12. NC State
  13. Illinois
  14. LSU
  15. Cleveland State
  16. Denver
  17. Northern Iowa
  18. New Mexico State
  19. Tulsa
  20. Central Florida
  21. Akron
  22. Massachusetts
  23. George Mason
  24. Texas-Arlington
  25. Bucknell
  26. Montana
  27. Valparaiso
  28. Long Island
  29. UNC-Asheville
  30. Stony Brook
  31. Mississippi Valley State
  32. Savannah State

 

 

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