College Basketball Pairwise NCAA Forecast #14

If the season ended today –  (rankings here)

The Field of 68.  Easier to present it this way – ignoring procedural seeding rules.  Conference champs (leaders, wins first tiebreak, pairwise ranking second) in caps.  This week, after looking at the criteria – it felt like we did need at least one “How did they play” component, so we’ve added the Pomeroy Ranking to the composition of the rankings.  Technically this is still only 20% of the crtieria, and at best 50% (since every team can be compared on both RPI and KenPom at the least).  So yes, this is not consistent with the frameworks earlier, but hopefully it is a better one in what the committee should be looking at.

An addtional feature, now that the conference tournaments have started – I tried to apply the bracketing rules now, and so this week’s 68 is internally consistent with what the tournament could look like.  Now, with conference tourneys starting, we will get the bracket filled with concrete teams.  Also, the NIT field will start to get cleared up.  In particular, pay attention to Iona losing in the MAAC semifinals.  Iona still has an at-large worthy profile (a bubble one, but still), so Fairfield or Loyola might end up stealing a bid.  Fortunately for bubblers, Belmont took care of business in the Atlantic Sun tourney.  Clinched teams will be underlined as we start updating is after each night of Championship Week.

East Region (Boston, Massachusetts – #1 Overall Seed)

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (1) SYRACUSE vs (16) STONY BROOK/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
  • (8) HARVARD vs (9) ORAL ROBERTS

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (4) Michigan vs (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) CREIGHTON vs (12) Brigham Young

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) Missouri vs (15) MONTANA
  • (7) MURRAY STATE vs (10) Connecticut

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (3) Wichita State vs (14) AKRON
  • (6) Vanderbilt vs (11) Purdue

West Region (Phoenix, Arizona – #4 overall seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) Duke vs (16) LONG ISLAND
  • (8) Alabama vs (9) SAINT MARY’S

(Albuquerque, New Mexico)

  • (4) Baylor vs (13) Northwestern/NC State
  • (5) MEMPHIS vs (12) West Virginia

(Omaha, Nebraska)

  • (2) KANSAS vs (15) VALPARAISO
  • (7) Florida vs (10) Notre Dame

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (3) Indiana vs (14) MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  • (6) NEW MEXICO vs (11) Oregon

South Region (Atlanta, Georgia – #2 Overall seed)

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (1) KENTUCKY vs (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON
  • (8) California vs (9) Virginia

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (4) Saint Louis vs (13) BELMONT
  • (5) Wisconsin vs (12) Cincinnati

(Louisville, Kentucky)

  • (2) Ohio State vs (15) LOYOLA-MARYLAND
  • (7) Iowa State vs (10) Nevada

(Portland, Oregon)

  • (3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
  • (6) Florida State vs (11) DREXEL

Midwest Region (Saint Louis, Missouri – #3 Overall Seed)

(Greensboro, North Carolina)

  • (1) NORTH CAROLINA vs (16) NC-ASHEVILLE/SAVANNAH STATE
  • (8) San Diego State vs (9) Southern Mississippi

(Nashville, Tennessee)

  • (4) Georgetown vs (13) Texas/Iona
  • (5) Gonzaga vs (12) LONG BEACH STATE

(Columbus, Ohio)

  • (2) MICHIGAN STATE vs (15) BUCKNELL
  • (7) Louisville vs (10) Kansas State

(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

  • (3) TEMPLE vs (14) WASHINGTON
  • (6) UNLV vs (11) Virginia Commonwealth

Last Four In: Texas, Northwestern, Iona, NC State

First Four Out: Xavier, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Miami-FL

Next Four Out: Saint Joseph’s, Ohio, Dayton, Arizona

Multi-Bid Leagues

  • ACC (5)
  • Metro Atlantic (2)
  • Big 12 (6)
  • Big Ten (7)
  • Summit (2)
  • West Coast (3)
  • Colonial (2)
  • Pac 12 (3)
  • Big East (8)
  • SEC (4)
  • Conference USA (2)
  • Mountain West (3)

The NIT Field (the regular season champs below the current at-large cut line, and the remaining at-larges without a home … as spots are clinched, at-large teams join the pool.  With NC-Asheville winning their conference tournament, that frees up an at-large bid)

  1. Seton Hall
  2. Colorado State
  3. Washington
  4. Miami-FL
  5. Middle Tennessee State
  6. Saint Joseph’s
  7. Ohio
  8. Dayton
  9. Arizona
  10. Denver
  11. South Florida
  12. Mississippi State
  13. Davidson
  14. Stanford
  15. Ole Miss
  16. New Mexico State
  17. Tennessee
  18. Central Florida
  19. Akron
  20. Cleveland State
  21. Illinois
  22. George Mason
  23. Weber State
  24. Montana
  25. Northern Iowa
  26. Bucknell
  27. Valparaiso
  28. Long Island
  29. Texas-Arlington
  30. Stony Brook
  31. Mississippi Valley State
  32. Savannah State
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