2012 MLB Update #3 – the All Star Break

Yeah, this is EXACTLY how I expected the teams to stack up heading into the second half of the season.  As always, rankings and formula are here:

Rank Team W L Pythag SOS Recent RecRank Total
1 Pittsburgh Pirates 49 37 0.558 (7) 0.502 (13) 0.646 1 0.569
2 Washington Nationals 49 34 0.59 (2) 0.504 (9) 0.594 3 0.563
3 Anaheim Angels 48 38 0.562 (6) 0.501 (14) 0.606 2 0.556
4 Chicago White Sox 47 38 0.583 (5) 0.497 (19) 0.564 5 0.548
5 Saint Louis Cardinals 46 40 0.589 (3) 0.509 (5) 0.538 8 0.545
6 New York Mets 46 40 0.526 (12) 0.5 (15) 0.59 4 0.539
7 Texas Rangers 52 34 0.597 (1) 0.504 (12) 0.505 17 0.535
8 New York Yankees 52 33 0.588 (4) 0.486 (28) 0.512 15 0.529
9 Boston Red Sox 43 43 0.548 (8) 0.496 (20) 0.524 10 0.522
10 Detroit Tigers 44 42 0.508 (15) 0.492 (24) 0.56 6 0.52
11 Oakland Athletics 43 43 0.505 (17) 0.494 (21) 0.557 7 0.518
12 Atlanta Braves 46 39 0.545 (9) 0.491 (26) 0.515 12 0.517
13 Milwaukee Brewers 40 45 0.488 (18) 0.519 (1) 0.537 9 0.515
14 Arizona Diamondbacks 42 43 0.514 (14) 0.511 (3) 0.518 11 0.514
15 Cincinnati Reds 47 39 0.538 (10) 0.5 (16) 0.497 18 0.511
16 Toronto Blue Jays 43 43 0.529 (11) 0.491 (25) 0.486 19 0.502
17 Cleveland Indians 44 41 0.464 (21) 0.493 (23) 0.514 13 0.49
18 Seattle Mariners 37 51 0.472 (20) 0.49 (27) 0.506 16 0.489
19 Tampa Bay Rays 45 41 0.506 (16) 0.485 (29) 0.463 23 0.484
20 San Francisco Giants 46 40 0.488 (19) 0.507 (7) 0.429 25 0.475
21 Kansas City Royals 37 47 0.444 (24) 0.498 (18) 0.475 21 0.472
22 San Diego Padres 34 53 0.391 (30) 0.51 (4) 0.512 14 0.471
23 Chicago Cubs 33 51 0.423 (26) 0.499 (17) 0.485 20 0.469
24 Miami Marlins 41 44 0.423 (25) 0.504 (11) 0.467 22 0.465
25 Los Angeles Dodgers 47 40 0.515 (13) 0.512 (2) 0.365 30 0.464
26 Philadelphia Phillies 36 50 0.454 (22) 0.509 (6) 0.411 26 0.458
27 Colorado Rockies 32 52 0.416 (27) 0.504 (10) 0.404 28 0.441
28 Minnesota Twins 36 49 0.392 (29) 0.493 (22) 0.436 24 0.44
29 Houston Astros 33 53 0.406 (28) 0.505 (8) 0.407 27 0.44
30 Baltimore Orioles 45 40 0.451 (23) 0.479 (30) 0.377 29 0.436

While somehow or another I do not expect the Pirates to keep churning out this level of performance – at the same time, the pitching behind James McDonald has been really good, and clearly Andrew McCutchen is having an MVP caliber season.  Even if they just go .500 the rest of the way, that is a 87-75, which puts them well within reach of the wild card.  Using the power rankings as a proxy win pct, they project even better.  Indeed, if we use the overall ranking to forecast projected record, the playoff seeds might look like this:

American League

  1. Rangers (93-69)
  2. Yankees (93-69)
  3. White Sox (89-73)
  4. Angels (90-72)
  5. Tigers (84-78)

As such, with the added wild card team, the race for the last playoff spot has thrown the AL into chaos – as there are a lot of teams with .500-ish projections.  Boson (83-79), Oakland (82-80), Toronto (81-81), Cleveland (82-80), Tampa (82-80), Baltimore (79-83) all project to maybe be around to to the final week.  So there is a ton of baseball to be played and a seeming guarantee that a meh team could win the world series.

The NL

  1. Nationals (93-69)
  2. Pirates (92-70)
  3. Diamondbacks (82-80)
  4. Cardinals (87-75)
  5. Mets (87-75)

The NL is a bit more top heavy I suppose, though the Braves (87), Reds (86), Brewers (80) and Giants/Dodgers (82) are around too.  What is interesting is the stark lack of the teams that make the system so (sniff!) unfair.  Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers all not represented (though a couple of those teams are on the fringes).  While I do not expect this to be a true small market World Series, the claim that baseball has to the best parity model of any sport is still very much in tow.

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3 thoughts on “2012 MLB Update #3 – the All Star Break

    1. Sure. But they also had a negative run differential while putting up a decent record. This has been a stronger outfit. Not saying it will last, but they deserve the respect accorded to a strong team while they are.

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