2012 College Football Update 3

One of the good things about being a fan of a large, BCS-level sort of school, even one with the sort of football Napoleon complex that Georgia Tech has, is that when it’s time to line up a cupcake, I win either way.  While it was disappointing and baffling to see Georgia Tech get their clocks cleaned by Middle Tennessee State yesterday, at the same time a Sun Belt team beat a high falutin snooty ACC/SEC program, and that is never a bad thing.  After all, these schools are being played to give the large school an automatic victory – it is always fun when the jobber does not play according to the script.  Similarly, Washington – a good team despite getting obliterated by LSU in Baton Rouge – decimated by injury, showed big and knocked off last week’s #1 Stanford Cardinal.  Suddenly, it is looking like an SEC/Big 12 oligarchy – in other words, a lot like the last few years.   As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Florida 4 0 0.705 (4) 31.596 (3) 120
2 Alabama 5 0 0.682 (7) 35.45 (1) 119
3 Texas Tech 4 0 0.685 (6) 31.231 (4) 118
4 Kansas State 4 0 0.702 (5) 29.028 (6) 117
5 Georgia 5 0 0.673 (8) 28.413 (7) 116
6 Notre Dame 4 0 0.747 (3) 27.052 (8) 116
7 Texas 4 0 0.669 (10) 34.929 (2) 116
8 Florida State 5 0 0.668 (11) 25.582 (11) 115
9 Oregon 5 0 0.664 (12) 30.61 (5) 114
10 Stanford 3 1 0.766 (2) 26.958 (9) 114
11 Oregon State 3 0 0.825 (1) 18.85 (21) 112
12 South Carolina 5 0 0.661 (14) 24.498 (12) 112
13 West Virginia 4 0 0.672 (9) 22.363 (14) 112
14 Iowa State 3 1 0.659 (15) 20.978 (15) 111
15 Ohio State 5 0 0.658 (16) 17.083 (26) 109
16 Clemson 4 1 0.648 (19) 18.119 (24) 108
17 LSU 5 0 0.593 (27) 19.515 (19) 107
18 Boise State 3 1 0.651 (18) 16.006 (30) 105
19 Mississippi State 4 0 0.603 (25) 15.444 (35) 103
20 Missouri 3 2 0.654 (17) 16.273 (29) 102
21 Northwestern 5 0 0.592 (28) 12.621 (41) 101
22 Arizona 3 2 0.648 (20) 15.604 (33) 99
23 Miami-FL 4 1 0.638 (22) 10.903 (46) 99
24 UCLA 4 1 0.585 (33) 19.805 (17) 95
25 Arizona State 4 1 0.58 (34) 20.004 (16) 94
26 Michigan State 3 2 0.634 (23) 11.838 (43) 94
27 Cincinnati 3 0 0.639 (21) 16.608 (28) 93
28 Nebraska 4 1 0.585 (32) 18.402 (23) 93
29 Baylor 3 1 0.592 (29) 19.698 (18) 92
30 Washington 3 1 0.662 (13) 9.922 (52) 91
31 Ohio 5 0 0.559 (44) 10.729 (48) 89
32 Louisville 5 0 0.573 (35) 7.671 (60) 88
33 Tennessee 3 2 0.567 (39) 17.633 (25) 88
34 Western Kentucky 4 1 0.595 (26) 7.799 (59) 87
35 Oklahoma State 2 2 0.554 (49) 22.766 (13) 85
36 Wisconsin 3 2 0.586 (31) 8.63 (55) 85
37 Kentucky 1 4 0.611 (24) 8.098 (57) 82
38 Purdue 3 1 0.539 (56) 17.026 (27) 82
39 South Florida 2 3 0.57 (36) 9.973 (50) 80
40 Iowa 3 2 0.569 (37) 6.529 (67) 78
41 Louisiana Tech 4 0 0.59 (30) 11.692 (44) 78
42 USC 3 1 0.565 (42) 15.965 (31) 78
43 Auburn 1 3 0.569 (38) 14.921 (37) 77
44 Tulsa 4 1 0.549 (50) 5.601 (69) 76
45 TCU 4 0 0.565 (41) 14.594 (39) 75
46 LA-Lafayette 3 1 0.542 (53) 7.994 (58) 72
47 Duke 4 1 0.556 (47) 4.081 (74) 71
48 Utah State 4 1 0.526 (66) 10.101 (49) 71
49 Michigan 2 2 0.555 (48) 14.929 (36) 70
50 Rutgers 4 0 0.541 (55) 1.582 (84) 70
51 North Carolina 3 2 0.509 (74) 15.548 (34) 69
52 San Jose State 4 1 0.556 (46) 11.069 (45) 68
53 Vanderbilt 1 3 0.566 (40) 9.834 (53) 67
54 Ball State 3 2 0.559 (45) 1.642 (83) 65
55 Utah 2 2 0.543 (52) 12.321 (42) 65
56 Central Michigan 2 2 0.548 (51) -11.078 (115) 64
57 Fresno State 3 2 0.535 (59) 18.461 (22) 64
58 Nevada 4 1 0.511 (73) 8.281 (56) 64
59 UTSA 5 0 0.505 (77) 6.912 (63) 63
60 Penn State 3 2 0.531 (60) 15.728 (32) 62
61 Toledo 4 1 0.562 (43) 7.27 (62) 62
62 Kent State 3 1 0.53 (61) -5.461 (107) 58
63 Texas A&M 3 1 0.524 (67) 26.74 (10) 58
64 NC State 3 2 0.537 (58) 9.483 (54) 57
65 Troy 3 2 0.526 (65) 4.068 (75) 57
66 Northern Illinois 4 1 0.495 (81) 6.081 (68) 56
67 Wake Forest 3 2 0.523 (68) 0.259 (91) 52
68 New Mexico 2 3 0.541 (54) 4.551 (72) 51
69 UCF 2 2 0.514 (70) 10.769 (47) 51
70 Ole Miss 3 2 0.528 (64) 6.825 (65) 50
71 Oklahoma 2 1 0.506 (76) 18.936 (20) 49
72 Connecticut 3 2 0.445 (99) 5.583 (70) 48
73 Marshall 2 3 0.53 (62) 4.181 (73) 47
74 Virginia 2 3 0.5 (80) 2.868 (80) 46
75 Minnesota 4 1 0.537 (57) 2.382 (81) 44
76 BYU 3 2 0.49 (83) 14.844 (38) 42
77 Virginia Tech 3 2 0.491 (82) 13.41 (40) 42
78 Maryland 2 2 0.504 (79) 6.552 (66) 41
79 North Texas 2 3 0.53 (63) 1.724 (82) 40
80 California 1 4 0.481 (85) 7.286 (61) 39
81 Boston College 1 3 0.505 (78) 3.376 (77) 38
82 Syracuse 1 3 0.476 (87) 3.266 (78) 34
83 Arkansas State 2 3 0.485 (84) 1.115 (89) 30
84 East Carolina 3 2 0.513 (71) -0.601 (94) 29
85 Indiana 2 2 0.466 (91) 1.161 (86) 28
86 Georgia Tech 2 3 0.445 (100) 9.929 (51) 25
87 Illinois 2 3 0.474 (88) -0.921 (95) 25
88 Texas State 2 2 0.513 (72) -1.807 (98) 25
89 UAB 0 4 0.517 (69) -2.319 (99) 24
90 SMU 1 3 0.459 (94) 0.903 (90) 23
91 Arkansas 1 4 0.451 (97) 1.152 (87) 22
92 LA-Monroe 2 2 0.429 (103) 3.565 (76) 21
93 Pittsburgh 2 2 0.433 (102) 1.342 (85) 21
94 San Diego State 2 3 0.425 (104) 4.873 (71) 21
95 South Alabama 1 4 0.454 (96) -0.161 (92) 21
96 Western Michigan 2 3 0.464 (93) -1.129 (97) 21
97 Bowling Green 2 3 0.454 (95) -2.59 (100) 19
98 Buffalo 1 3 0.451 (98) -0.997 (96) 19
99 FIU 1 4 0.441 (101) -4.408 (102) 16
100 Florida Atlantic 1 4 0.473 (90) -5.225 (106) 16
101 Houston 1 3 0.466 (92) -4.775 (104) 16
102 Navy 1 3 0.473 (89) -5.635 (109) 16
103 MTSU 3 1 0.405 (110) 6.832 (64) 15
104 Miami-OH 3 2 0.506 (75) -10.805 (114) 14
105 Washington State 2 3 0.414 (108) -5.552 (108) 14
106 Southern Miss 0 4 0.477 (86) -6.369 (110) 13
107 Hawaii 1 3 0.415 (107) -12.138 (117) 12
108 Rice 1 4 0.425 (105) -9.608 (112) 12
109 New Mexico State 1 4 0.389 (111) -8.235 (111) 11
110 Kansas 1 3 0.375 (115) -0.541 (93) 10
111 Temple 1 2 0.37 (116) 1.141 (88) 10
112 UTEP 1 4 0.386 (114) -4.29 (101) 10
113 Non FBS 10 87 0.421 (106) -18.644 (123) 9
114 Air Force 2 2 0.352 (119) 2.935 (79) 8
115 Wyoming 1 3 0.389 (112) -5.018 (105) 8
116 UNLV 1 4 0.356 (117) -4.717 (103) 7
117 Akron 1 4 0.323 (122) -11.421 (116) 6
118 Colorado State 1 4 0.351 (120) -10.733 (113) 6
119 Colorado 1 4 0.355 (118) -17.065 (119) 3
120 Eastern Michigan 0 4 0.338 (121) -17.203 (120) 2
121 Memphis 0 4 0.304 (124) -12.15 (118) 1
122 Army 0 4 0.304 (123) -18.296 (122) 0
123 Idaho 0 5 0.297 (125) -17.419 (121) 0
124 Massachusetts 0 5 0.387 (113) -20.447 (124) 0
125 Tulane 0 4 0.406 (109) -21.231 (125) 0

Behold, the new #1 – and it’s still not Alabama! Florida has delivered the mail to a more consistent degree than any other team in the country to date – and this is fully knowing that they almost kicked a game away to Bowling Green. The wins at College Station and Knoxville look very strong, and with South Carolina stumbling around for a spell against Kentucky, THAT even looks a scooch better now. Alabama is a better team and their top ranked adjusted scoring margin shows that, but Florida has unambiguously accomplished more. A couple other highlights from the week?

  • Texas Tech’s schedule looks less soft than it is at this point.  Basically Iowa State was its first decent opponent.  To give you an idea, Texas State, New Mexico and the erstwhile FBS collective rank 87, 68 and 113 respectively.  Iowa State is #14 which is what is holding Texas Tech up, as well as Texas State’s decent start.  I suspect this will thin out over time.
  • After a nice start, the Pac-12 has faded a bit, although they have a bunch of teams littered with upside.  In particular, Oregon State’s #1 RPI ranking is to be commended.  UCLA, Arizona and Wisconsin have a combined 1 loss against other opponents – the Beavers have delivered a combination of defense and QB play to remain a pest.  Few schools and coaches are as well matched as Oregon State and Mike Riley, who with the occasional hiccup delivers quality season after quality season in a very very hard place to win.

So what does this leave as far as BCS projectin?

  1. Well, with Florida and Alabama in different divisions, hard to give them the Top 2.  So we move to #3 where Texas Tech for now gets the honor opposite Florida.  Obviously, it’s early.
  2. With the Sugar and Fiesta Bowl losing anchors, we slide Alabama and Kansas State into those slots respectively.
  3. With Ohio State not eligible, have to move to Northwestern as the Big Ten rep, with Oregon taking the Pac-12.
  4. The batting order for the rest is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.  Fiesta Bowl with the first pick takes Notre Dame, Sugar Bowl takes Stanford to oppose Alabama and the Orange Bowl takes the Big East champ, Cincinnati for now.

This week’s BCS Lineup:

  • BCS Title Game: Florida vs Texas Tech
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Northwestern
  • Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Notre Dame
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Stanford
  • Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Cincinnati

Going to the 2014 model, Florida and Texas Tech the Top 2 seeds.  Alabama clearly #3 and Kansas State gets the nod at #4 for now.

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2 thoughts on “2012 College Football Update 3

    1. Oh I fully expect Texas Tech to slip. Florida and Oregon State have the best resumes so far to this second. That will possibly change.

      LSU I think is better than Florida but LSU has not played any real opponents yet.

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