2012 College Football Update 4

Well, that was interesting.  It is hard to decide what was the highlight of the weekend – South Carolina’s loud pronouncement of their intention, Florida continuing to quietly amass the best resume in the county, Notre Dame sort of doing the same thing, or the Big Ten and ACC competing to see which conference outlook is the most depressing.  That said, Ohio State is clearly a national title contender, oh …. As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Florida 5 0 0.746 (3) 30.231 (4) 121
2 Notre Dame 5 0 0.758 (1) 28.27 (6) 120
3 Alabama 5 0 0.675 (8) 36.893 (1) 118
4 Ohio State 6 0 0.704 (5) 23.787 (11) 117
5 Oregon 6 0 0.67 (10) 30.955 (2) 117
6 South Carolina 6 0 0.685 (7) 29.903 (5) 117
7 Kansas State 5 0 0.633 (13) 26.753 (8) 116
8 Stanford 4 1 0.748 (2) 22.148 (15) 116
9 West Virginia 5 0 0.702 (6) 23.683 (12) 116
10 Georgia 5 1 0.655 (11) 23.017 (13) 113
11 Oregon State 4 0 0.713 (4) 13.61 (33) 112
12 Texas 4 1 0.627 (16) 30.908 (3) 111
13 Iowa State 4 1 0.674 (9) 21.396 (17) 110
14 Boise State 4 1 0.628 (15) 14.559 (30) 109
15 Florida State 5 1 0.597 (24) 22.65 (14) 109
16 Cincinnati 4 0 0.6 (23) 17.883 (22) 108
17 Texas Tech 4 1 0.61 (20) 23.867 (10) 108
18 Penn State 4 2 0.592 (25) 16.465 (25) 106
19 Oklahoma 3 1 0.578 (31) 27.468 (7) 102
20 Arizona 3 3 0.628 (14) 14.865 (28) 101
21 Baylor 3 1 0.618 (18) 20.143 (19) 101
22 USC 4 1 0.616 (19) 15.665 (27) 99
23 LSU 5 1 0.581 (29) 16.301 (26) 98
24 Michigan State 4 2 0.626 (17) 13.424 (35) 98
25 Michigan 3 2 0.587 (26) 21.535 (16) 97
26 Mississippi State 5 0 0.574 (33) 13.457 (34) 97
27 Texas A&M 4 1 0.582 (28) 25.226 (9) 96
28 Tulsa 5 1 0.58 (30) 9.323 (49) 96
29 Clemson 5 1 0.567 (39) 16.885 (24) 92
30 San Jose State 4 1 0.571 (37) 12.244 (40) 89
31 Nebraska 4 2 0.577 (32) 13.17 (37) 88
32 Arizona State 4 1 0.552 (46) 19.273 (20) 87
33 Missouri 3 3 0.572 (35) 11.379 (42) 87
34 Northwestern 5 1 0.564 (40) 10.911 (43) 87
35 Washington 3 2 0.64 (12) 7.835 (55) 85
36 Western Kentucky 4 1 0.574 (34) 7.671 (56) 85
37 Toledo 5 1 0.57 (38) 8.043 (53) 84
38 NC State 4 2 0.571 (36) 10.677 (44) 83
39 Tennessee 3 2 0.553 (45) 13.926 (32) 81
40 Duke 5 1 0.556 (43) 7.218 (58) 80
41 Iowa 3 2 0.559 (42) 6.915 (61) 78
42 Louisville 5 0 0.556 (44) 6.457 (66) 78
43 Northern Illinois 5 1 0.531 (55) 7.034 (59) 77
44 Fresno State 4 2 0.549 (48) 18.196 (21) 76
45 Vanderbilt 2 3 0.583 (27) 7.029 (60) 76
46 Miami-FL 4 2 0.609 (21) 5.549 (71) 75
47 Louisiana Tech 5 0 0.545 (50) 14.326 (31) 72
48 UCLA 4 2 0.527 (58) 12.42 (39) 72
49 California 2 4 0.527 (57) 13.234 (36) 71
50 Kentucky 1 5 0.607 (22) 8.664 (51) 70
51 Troy 3 2 0.534 (54) 6.385 (67) 69
52 Maryland 3 2 0.543 (51) 3.473 (77) 67
53 Rutgers 5 0 0.561 (41) 7.426 (57) 66
54 Utah 2 3 0.491 (75) 9.407 (48) 64
55 BYU 4 2 0.515 (61) 14.587 (29) 63
56 North Carolina 4 2 0.517 (60) 17.139 (23) 63
57 LA-Lafayette 4 1 0.495 (73) 6.193 (69) 62
58 Ohio 6 0 0.541 (52) 8.797 (50) 62
59 TCU 4 1 0.531 (56) 9.954 (46) 61
60 UTSA 5 0 0.479 (83) 6.817 (63) 61
61 Wisconsin 4 2 0.545 (49) 6.836 (62) 61
62 Central Michigan 2 3 0.552 (47) -8.735 (109) 60
63 UCF 3 2 0.512 (63) 11.952 (41) 60
64 Nevada 5 1 0.488 (78) 6.763 (64) 59
65 Oklahoma State 2 2 0.506 (68) 20.535 (18) 57
66 Connecticut 3 3 0.489 (77) 6.029 (70) 56
67 Ball State 3 3 0.507 (65) 1.746 (83) 55
68 Wake Forest 3 3 0.504 (69) 0.246 (90) 51
69 Utah State 4 2 0.493 (74) 10.401 (45) 50
70 Temple 2 2 0.447 (97) 3.573 (76) 48
71 Minnesota 4 1 0.537 (53) 3.08 (78) 47
72 South Florida 2 4 0.506 (67) 6.279 (68) 46
73 Kent State 4 1 0.479 (84) -2.126 (99) 44
74 LA-Monroe 3 2 0.486 (80) 9.948 (47) 44
75 New Mexico 3 3 0.506 (66) 4.047 (75) 44
76 UAB 1 4 0.515 (62) 1.992 (82) 42
77 Virginia 2 4 0.486 (81) -1.141 (97) 41
78 Arkansas 2 4 0.498 (71) 2.883 (79) 40
79 Ole Miss 3 3 0.477 (85) 8.352 (52) 39
80 Auburn 1 4 0.485 (82) 4.871 (72) 38
81 Marshall 2 4 0.496 (72) 2.054 (81) 38
82 Navy 2 3 0.52 (59) 1.146 (86) 38
83 Arkansas State 3 3 0.498 (70) 1.5 (85) 37
84 Virginia Tech 3 3 0.467 (90) 13.083 (38) 36
85 Purdue 3 2 0.467 (91) 7.87 (54) 35
86 Syracuse 2 3 0.474 (87) 2.7 (80) 34
87 Bowling Green 3 3 0.487 (79) 0.219 (91) 32
88 Buffalo 1 4 0.456 (92) 0.653 (88) 28
89 San Diego State 3 3 0.441 (98) 6.678 (65) 27
90 Illinois 2 4 0.475 (86) -0.728 (96) 26
91 SMU 2 3 0.451 (95) 0.703 (87) 26
92 East Carolina 3 3 0.49 (76) -2.528 (101) 24
93 South Alabama 1 4 0.454 (93) -0.605 (95) 23
94 Western Michigan 3 3 0.43 (100) 0.454 (89) 23
95 Houston 2 3 0.429 (101) -0.29 (93) 21
96 Indiana 2 3 0.425 (102) -0.153 (92) 21
97 North Texas 2 4 0.469 (89) -3.605 (103) 21
98 Texas State 2 3 0.47 (88) -6.749 (107) 21
99 Georgia Tech 2 4 0.419 (106) 4.853 (73) 20
100 Washington State 2 4 0.452 (94) -6.159 (105) 20
101 Wyoming 1 4 0.424 (103) -1.767 (98) 18
102 Pittsburgh 2 3 0.387 (111) 1.701 (84) 17
103 Miami-OH 3 3 0.511 (64) -10.436 (112) 16
104 FIU 1 5 0.42 (105) -4.863 (104) 14
105 Kansas 1 4 0.402 (109) -3.219 (102) 14
106 Boston College 1 4 0.398 (110) -2.362 (100) 13
107 Florida Atlantic 1 4 0.422 (104) -9.134 (110) 13
108 MTSU 3 2 0.384 (112) 4.234 (74) 13
109 Southern Miss 0 5 0.451 (96) -10.636 (114) 11
110 Hawaii 1 4 0.417 (107) -15.101 (120) 10
111 UNLV 1 5 0.361 (115) -6.261 (106) 9
112 UTEP 1 5 0.351 (116) -7.476 (108) 9
113 Air Force 2 3 0.317 (124) -0.425 (94) 8
114 New Mexico State 1 5 0.33 (121) -10.206 (111) 7
115 Rice 1 5 0.363 (114) -10.446 (113) 7
116 Non FBS 10 88 0.413 (108) -18.698 (122) 6
117 Akron 1 5 0.314 (125) -11.887 (117) 5
118 Colorado State 1 5 0.341 (117) -11.436 (116) 5
119 Army 1 4 0.338 (118) -12.307 (118) 3
120 Memphis 1 4 0.322 (122) -11.025 (115) 2
121 Tulane 0 5 0.433 (99) -18.73 (123) 2
122 Colorado 1 4 0.338 (119) -18.172 (121) 1
123 Eastern Michigan 0 5 0.335 (120) -20.977 (124) 0
124 Idaho 1 5 0.317 (123) -14.487 (119) 0
125 Massachusetts 0 6 0.363 (113) -21.937 (125) 0

A few of the quick notes:

  • First off, definitely a hat tip to West Virginia.  Coming from the Big East, there has been much skepticism whether the throw-heavy attack can handle a high timber of opponent.  Last week’s win over Baylor did not prove much as Baylor’s defense is pretty awful.  But going to Austin, against a pretty good Texas team?  There you go.
  • Staying in the Big 12, last week’s surprise of Texas Tech seemed like a mirage – and well, you know …
  • Florida State’s shocking loss at NC State takes them off of the National Championship chase, I’d think.  Given the increasingly horrendous form of the ACC, it is hard to envision how Florida State could pile up the schedule brownie points to win a 1 loss tie.  Speaking of horrible ACC form, Georgia Tech forgetting how to play defense, Virginia Tech losing at UNC after going 0-2 against the Big East, Virginia getting drubbed by Duke, Notre Dame can’t get “into” the league fast enough.

Where does this leave our BCS projection?

  • The national title game.  Florida has the best resume in the country, and Notre Dame with its rout of Miami is starting to pile up a lot of quality.  (and Notre Dame’s schedule ahead offers many more chances)
  • The Rose Bowl gets the teams it wants, Oregon vs Michigan – the highest rated of the conference unbeatens.  Frankly, I’d give Ohio State the nod given their ranking and how silly prospective punishment is – but hey, we’ll follow the regs for now.
  • The Sugar Bowl gets a replacement, and obviously #3 Alabama.  The order to fill the rest is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange.  Right now Kansas State is the Fiesta Bowl rep, and so they get Stanford.  The Sugar Bowl gets West Virginia and the Orange Bowl gets – dare I say – Duke (the highest ranked unbeaten) against Cincinnati from the Big East

In summary

  • BCS Title Game: Florida v Notre Dame
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon v Michigan
  • Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v West Virginia
  • Orange Bowl: Duke v Cincinnati

In a national semifinal sort of framework, the top four seeds are clearly Florida, Notre Dame, Alabama and Oregon – though Ohio State obviously would get in if eligible.

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