2012 College Football Update 5

Well, Sunday night and that must mean the first BCS Rankings hit the presses.  I can proudly say that the Top 2 as of initial printing, 2 of my Top 3 match the BCS, which granted is not the goal of the rankings – after all I think mine are better!  But it is interesting that the #1 team in terms of adjusted scoring margin and the #2 team in RPI terms sit at the top – a classic case of the “what” vs the “who”.   As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Notre Dame 6 0 0.744 (1) 25.883 (6) 122
2 Alabama 6 0 0.686 (5) 37.808 (1) 121
3 Florida 6 0 0.723 (2) 25.69 (9) 120
4 Ohio State 7 0 0.666 (6) 20.991 (13) 118
5 Oregon 6 0 0.638 (12) 29.487 (3) 118
6 Oregon State 5 0 0.71 (3) 18.561 (16) 118
7 Kansas State 6 0 0.655 (10) 25.744 (8) 117
8 South Carolina 6 1 0.642 (11) 26.746 (5) 116
9 Texas Tech 5 1 0.657 (9) 29.125 (4) 116
10 Oklahoma 4 1 0.626 (13) 31.707 (2) 113
11 Iowa State 4 2 0.661 (7) 21.76 (11) 112
12 Stanford 4 2 0.695 (4) 18.248 (17) 112
13 Georgia 5 1 0.605 (18) 18.704 (15) 110
14 Texas A&M 5 1 0.619 (14) 25.869 (7) 110
15 Florida State 6 1 0.566 (32) 24.565 (10) 107
16 West Virginia 5 1 0.66 (8) 14.473 (31) 107
17 LSU 6 1 0.611 (17) 16.739 (19) 106
18 Penn State 4 2 0.59 (21) 15.992 (24) 106
19 Texas 4 2 0.598 (20) 21.599 (12) 105
20 Boise State 5 1 0.618 (15) 15.244 (28) 104
21 USC 5 1 0.613 (16) 14.607 (30) 103
22 Michigan 4 2 0.584 (24) 20.69 (14) 100
23 North Carolina 5 2 0.569 (31) 16.158 (22) 97
24 Mississippi State 6 0 0.563 (35) 13.116 (36) 96
25 Arizona 3 3 0.602 (19) 14.21 (32) 95
26 Western Kentucky 5 1 0.588 (22) 8.182 (52) 94
27 Clemson 5 1 0.562 (36) 15.717 (25) 92
28 Nebraska 4 2 0.585 (23) 13.781 (35) 92
29 Northwestern 6 1 0.572 (28) 10.14 (44) 92
30 Michigan State 4 3 0.582 (25) 10.767 (42) 91
31 Cincinnati 5 0 0.564 (34) 15.354 (27) 88
32 TCU 5 1 0.532 (50) 15.643 (26) 88
33 Iowa 4 2 0.566 (33) 7.11 (58) 87
34 Louisville 6 0 0.548 (41) 8.047 (54) 87
35 Arizona State 5 1 0.525 (53) 18.065 (18) 86
36 Louisiana Tech 5 1 0.55 (40) 16.255 (20) 85
37 Virginia Tech 4 3 0.519 (59) 16.179 (21) 85
38 Wisconsin 5 2 0.572 (30) 10.966 (40) 85
39 UCLA 5 2 0.561 (37) 13.098 (37) 84
40 Tulsa 6 1 0.546 (43) 9.271 (46) 82
41 Northern Illinois 6 1 0.523 (56) 10.324 (43) 81
42 Utah State 5 2 0.523 (57) 14.021 (33) 81
43 Tennessee 3 3 0.544 (45) 13.959 (34) 78
44 California 3 4 0.544 (44) 12.461 (38) 76
45 Rutgers 6 0 0.577 (27) 9.197 (47) 76
46 NC State 4 2 0.535 (48) 10.089 (45) 75
47 Toledo 6 1 0.528 (52) 5.472 (64) 75
48 Fresno State 4 3 0.534 (49) 16.009 (23) 74
49 Baylor 3 2 0.541 (46) 11.654 (39) 73
50 Oklahoma State 3 2 0.498 (71) 14.634 (29) 73
51 Missouri 3 4 0.551 (39) 8.732 (51) 72
52 Washington 3 3 0.577 (26) 6.755 (60) 72
53 San Jose State 4 2 0.524 (54) 9.086 (49) 70
54 BYU 4 3 0.493 (74) 10.957 (41) 69
55 Maryland 4 2 0.532 (51) 1.401 (84) 68
56 Miami-FL 4 3 0.572 (29) 5.194 (68) 68
57 Vanderbilt 2 4 0.556 (38) 4.61 (69) 67
58 Nevada 6 1 0.49 (76) 7.258 (56) 64
59 Temple 3 2 0.501 (66) 5.533 (63) 63
60 Arkansas 3 4 0.5 (69) 5.564 (62) 60
61 Ball State 4 3 0.518 (60) 4.036 (73) 60
62 Navy 3 3 0.537 (47) 1.005 (87) 58
63 Ohio 7 0 0.516 (61) 6.757 (59) 57
64 South Florida 2 4 0.523 (55) 6.356 (61) 55
65 LA-Lafayette 4 1 0.502 (65) 7.242 (57) 54
66 LA-Monroe 4 2 0.497 (72) 9.181 (48) 53
67 Troy 3 3 0.514 (62) 5.435 (65) 53
68 Connecticut 3 4 0.458 (92) 4.51 (70) 51
69 UCF 4 2 0.493 (75) 8.139 (53) 49
70 Wake Forest 3 3 0.495 (73) -0.412 (92) 49
71 New Mexico 4 3 0.521 (58) 2.958 (76) 47
72 Ole Miss 4 3 0.489 (77) 7.423 (55) 47
73 Central Michigan 2 4 0.5 (68) -10.663 (113) 46
74 Duke 5 2 0.511 (63) 3.851 (74) 46
75 Utah 2 4 0.487 (79) 8.798 (50) 46
76 Bowling Green 4 3 0.511 (64) 2.847 (77) 44
77 Minnesota 4 2 0.5 (67) 2.793 (78) 44
78 Pittsburgh 2 4 0.41 (107) 2.746 (79) 44
79 Kent State 5 1 0.476 (84) -1.514 (95) 42
80 UTSA 5 1 0.434 (97) 1.365 (85) 42
81 Syracuse 2 4 0.485 (80) 3.21 (75) 40
82 Kentucky 1 6 0.547 (42) 1.268 (86) 39
83 Auburn 1 5 0.483 (81) 2.489 (80) 38
84 Arkansas State 4 3 0.482 (82) 0.943 (88) 34
85 Purdue 3 3 0.46 (89) 4.459 (71) 34
86 East Carolina 4 3 0.481 (83) 0.524 (89) 33
87 Marshall 2 4 0.487 (78) 0.35 (90) 33
88 Houston 3 3 0.458 (93) 4.127 (72) 32
89 Texas State 3 3 0.473 (86) -1.488 (94) 30
90 Virginia 2 5 0.451 (96) -2.581 (98) 30
91 Indiana 2 4 0.46 (91) 2.225 (82) 29
92 UAB 1 5 0.46 (90) -2.433 (96) 25
93 Buffalo 1 5 0.452 (95) -2.53 (97) 23
94 Georgia Tech 2 4 0.413 (103) 5.232 (67) 21
95 Illinois 2 5 0.46 (88) -3.819 (103) 21
96 Kansas 1 5 0.417 (100) 0.086 (91) 21
97 North Texas 2 4 0.474 (85) -3.899 (104) 21
98 Rice 2 5 0.42 (99) -3.303 (101) 19
99 San Diego State 4 3 0.407 (110) 5.417 (66) 17
100 South Alabama 1 5 0.411 (105) -2.965 (100) 17
101 Western Michigan 3 4 0.41 (108) -1.4 (93) 17
102 Boston College 1 5 0.411 (106) -3.376 (102) 15
103 Miami-OH 3 4 0.498 (70) -11.225 (115) 15
104 MTSU 4 2 0.404 (112) 2.366 (81) 15
105 SMU 2 4 0.413 (104) -5.448 (108) 15
106 Washington State 2 5 0.414 (101) -7.595 (110) 15
107 Southern Miss 0 6 0.463 (87) -6.527 (109) 14
108 FIU 1 6 0.408 (109) -4.094 (105) 12
109 Florida Atlantic 1 5 0.42 (98) -8.377 (112) 12
110 Hawaii 1 5 0.405 (111) -14.505 (119) 11
111 UTEP 1 6 0.398 (113) -4.418 (106) 11
112 Air Force 3 3 0.372 (116) 1.597 (83) 10
113 Wyoming 1 5 0.386 (114) -2.662 (99) 10
114 Akron 1 6 0.355 (119) -8.039 (111) 9
115 UNLV 1 6 0.373 (115) -4.995 (107) 9
116 Tulane 1 5 0.455 (94) -14.709 (120) 7
117 Non FBS 10 89 0.413 (102) -18.752 (124) 7
118 Army 1 5 0.355 (118) -11.116 (114) 6
119 New Mexico State 1 5 0.325 (125) -11.544 (116) 4
120 Eastern Michigan 0 6 0.362 (117) -16.98 (121) 3
121 Colorado State 1 6 0.342 (123) -13.07 (117) 2
122 Memphis 1 5 0.343 (122) -13.9 (118) 1
123 Colorado 1 5 0.346 (121) -17.45 (123) 0
124 Idaho 1 6 0.338 (124) -17.117 (122) 0
125 Massachusetts 0 6 0.35 (120) -21.525 (125) 0

What have we learned this week?

  1. I think at this point, I’d expect the adjusted scoring margin to better match the BCS and whatnot.  After all, the BCS is largely concerned with eye test, and Alabama and Oregon answer the mail there.  Of course, these rankings consider the “who” as well as the “how”.  Is Notre Dame “better” than Alabama?  That is hard to justify by the eye test, but it is clear that Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon State, have all actually “accomplished” more.  That said, clearly Alabama will get its chances.
  2. The big game of the week was South Carolina-LSU obviously, a win LSU had to have to keep its BCS hopes going.  South Carolina was #6 of course last week, and clearly the rankings did not punish them for a close loss.  Indeed, LSU adds some beef for their until recently fairly lean profile.
  3. The big winners of the week turn out to be Oklahoma.  With their evisceration of Texas, Oklahoma is in very good shape to possibly be in line to move up if they keep winning Big 12 games.  Especially with Texas Tech’s win looking better and better, Oklahoma could be at the top of this list pretty soon.

So what does this mean BCS-wise?

  • Championship Game: Notre Dame vs Alabama, pretty straighforward.  The Sugar Bowl takes Florida getting first crack
  • Rose Bowl gets Oregon State, which nips out Oregon on the vast difference in schedule merit.  From the Big Ten, someone has to win I guess – Michigan gets the nod for now.
  • Fiesta Bowl – Kansas State at the top, they play Oregon … Sugar Bowl – Florida vs Texas Tech, though I’d imagine it will be Oklahoma if you ask me this later.  Orange Bowl gets Cincinnati vs Maryland – ick!

Notre Dame, Florida, Bama and Oregon State are your final four.

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