2012 College Football Update 6

Well, after falling asleep at the wheel for a week, a week where Florida threw down against South Carolina and Kansas State continued to stake their claim in an increasingly amazing season, we are back in the saddle. Of course, this past week’s action was also very telling as Alabama faced its first decent opponent since the opener and Notre Dame had a chance to show the doubters a thing or two against the increasingly mighty Sooners. Interestingly, compared to the last time we did this, Notre Dame has done nothing but really bolster their resume, but then so did another team with a Heisman clubhouse leader.  As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Alabama 8 0 0.692 (3) 38.848 (1) 123
2 Kansas State 8 0 0.669 (4) 29.141 (3) 121
3 Notre Dame 8 0 0.733 (1) 25.929 (5) 121
4 Florida 7 1 0.693 (2) 26.046 (4) 120
5 Oregon 8 0 0.633 (10) 30.549 (2) 120
6 Ohio State 9 0 0.665 (6) 20.299 (10) 119
7 Florida State 8 1 0.592 (21) 24.892 (8) 115
8 Georgia 7 1 0.623 (13) 16.39 (17) 115
9 South Carolina 7 2 0.632 (11) 19.472 (11) 115
10 Oregon State 6 1 0.665 (7) 15.046 (26) 114
11 Stanford 6 2 0.667 (5) 15.726 (20) 112
12 Texas Tech 6 2 0.629 (12) 21.079 (9) 112
13 Arizona 5 3 0.634 (9) 17.023 (16) 111
14 LSU 7 1 0.623 (14) 15.889 (19) 111
15 Clemson 7 1 0.595 (18) 18.659 (13) 110
16 Nebraska 6 2 0.637 (8) 15.114 (23) 110
17 Oklahoma 5 2 0.594 (19) 25.108 (7) 106
18 Boise State 7 1 0.574 (27) 16.37 (18) 105
19 Texas A&M 6 2 0.588 (24) 25.336 (6) 105
20 Iowa State 5 3 0.6 (16) 15.108 (24) 104
21 Penn State 5 3 0.581 (25) 14.643 (27) 102
22 Mississippi State 7 1 0.572 (29) 14.609 (28) 101
23 Michigan 5 3 0.595 (17) 15.335 (22) 100
24 Texas 6 2 0.569 (31) 14.27 (31) 98
25 Cincinnati 5 2 0.569 (32) 14.154 (32) 97
26 USC 6 2 0.577 (26) 14.13 (33) 95
27 North Carolina 6 3 0.561 (35) 12.94 (34) 94
28 Oklahoma State 5 2 0.554 (39) 18.158 (14) 94
29 Northwestern 7 2 0.568 (33) 11.35 (42) 93
30 San Jose State 6 2 0.589 (23) 14.584 (29) 93
31 West Virginia 5 2 0.593 (20) 8.288 (50) 93
32 Louisville 8 0 0.561 (34) 8.759 (47) 92
33 Michigan State 5 4 0.59 (22) 12.052 (38) 90
34 Utah State 7 2 0.545 (42) 18.791 (12) 90
35 Washington 4 4 0.601 (15) 4.049 (69) 87
36 Fresno State 6 3 0.558 (38) 17.349 (15) 85
37 UCLA 6 2 0.572 (30) 12.796 (36) 85
38 BYU 5 4 0.529 (51) 15.573 (21) 80
39 Wisconsin 6 3 0.546 (40) 11.951 (40) 80
40 Western Kentucky 6 2 0.531 (49) 7.922 (51) 78
41 Kent State 7 1 0.531 (48) 6.389 (59) 77
42 Tennessee 3 5 0.534 (46) 10.462 (44) 77
43 Virginia Tech 4 4 0.518 (56) 12.714 (37) 77
44 NC State 5 3 0.533 (47) 8.356 (49) 76
45 Rutgers 7 1 0.545 (41) 11.438 (41) 76
46 TCU 5 3 0.505 (61) 12.001 (39) 76
47 Tulsa 7 1 0.539 (43) 9.624 (46) 73
48 Iowa 4 4 0.529 (50) 3.566 (71) 72
49 Miami-FL 4 4 0.56 (36) 5.437 (62) 71
50 Missouri 4 4 0.528 (52) 7.899 (52) 71
51 Duke 6 3 0.534 (45) 3.944 (70) 69
52 Toledo 8 1 0.559 (37) 7.332 (54) 69
53 Baylor 3 4 0.52 (55) 7.261 (55) 68
54 Louisiana Tech 7 1 0.506 (60) 15.063 (25) 66
55 Navy 5 3 0.574 (28) 6.864 (58) 65
56 Utah 3 5 0.493 (67) 8.646 (48) 64
57 LA-Monroe 6 2 0.522 (54) 9.832 (45) 63
58 Northern Illinois 8 1 0.504 (63) 12.812 (35) 62
59 Ole Miss 5 3 0.506 (59) 7.854 (53) 60
60 Vanderbilt 4 4 0.504 (62) 2.737 (76) 60
61 Ball State 6 3 0.538 (44) 4.938 (64) 59
62 Pittsburgh 4 4 0.443 (89) 5.788 (60) 59
63 UCF 6 2 0.5 (65) 11.198 (43) 59
64 Minnesota 5 3 0.494 (66) 1.791 (81) 58
65 Arkansas State 5 3 0.51 (58) 5.613 (61) 57
66 Syracuse 4 4 0.501 (64) 7.133 (56) 57
67 Arizona State 5 3 0.491 (69) 14.463 (30) 56
68 Bowling Green 6 3 0.493 (68) 2.354 (78) 56
69 Kentucky 1 8 0.513 (57) -2.391 (94) 56
70 California 3 6 0.485 (72) 4.289 (68) 52
71 Arkansas 3 5 0.47 (81) 4.505 (66) 51
72 South Florida 2 6 0.485 (73) 4.875 (65) 49
73 Wake Forest 4 4 0.487 (71) -2.814 (97) 49
74 Auburn 1 7 0.479 (77) -0.641 (85) 48
75 Ohio 7 1 0.488 (70) 3.318 (73) 47
76 San Diego State 6 3 0.472 (79) 6.972 (57) 46
77 Purdue 3 5 0.481 (75) 3.185 (74) 44
78 Air Force 5 3 0.457 (83) 5.041 (63) 42
79 Central Michigan 3 5 0.47 (80) -7.397 (110) 41
80 Indiana 3 5 0.474 (78) 3.143 (75) 41
81 Nevada 6 3 0.444 (87) 4.438 (67) 40
82 New Mexico 4 5 0.481 (76) 1.877 (80) 40
83 MTSU 5 3 0.454 (84) 1.105 (82) 36
84 LA-Lafayette 4 3 0.443 (88) 2.591 (77) 35
85 Marshall 3 5 0.449 (85) -1.024 (87) 33
86 North Texas 3 5 0.482 (74) -1.651 (89) 33
87 Troy 4 4 0.442 (90) -0.799 (86) 31
88 Houston 4 4 0.437 (94) 1.104 (83) 30
89 UTSA 5 3 0.429 (97) -2.716 (96) 30
90 Kansas 1 7 0.436 (95) -0.619 (84) 28
91 Temple 3 4 0.438 (91) -1.937 (91) 27
92 Western Michigan 3 6 0.423 (98) -1.319 (88) 27
93 East Carolina 5 4 0.463 (82) -3.498 (99) 26
94 Buffalo 1 7 0.438 (92) -2.712 (95) 25
95 Maryland 4 4 0.437 (93) -2.22 (93) 25
96 Texas State 3 4 0.448 (86) -3.79 (100) 25
97 Rice 3 6 0.416 (101) -1.868 (90) 24
98 SMU 4 4 0.412 (107) 2.242 (79) 23
99 Virginia 2 6 0.406 (112) -5.659 (104) 22
100 Boston College 2 6 0.412 (105) -3.387 (98) 19
101 Miami-OH 4 4 0.524 (53) -7.777 (112) 19
102 Florida Atlantic 2 6 0.435 (96) -6.71 (108) 18
103 Connecticut 3 5 0.408 (110) -2.115 (92) 16
104 Georgia Tech 3 5 0.405 (114) 3.478 (72) 16
105 South Alabama 2 6 0.409 (109) -4.87 (103) 16
106 Wyoming 1 7 0.421 (99) -6.347 (106) 16
107 Illinois 2 6 0.412 (106) -6.44 (107) 14
108 Washington State 2 6 0.415 (103) -7.061 (109) 13
109 FIU 1 8 0.406 (111) -4.658 (102) 12
110 UAB 1 7 0.403 (115) -7.671 (111) 12
111 UTEP 2 7 0.406 (113) -5.953 (105) 11
112 Akron 1 8 0.362 (119) -9.776 (113) 10
113 UNLV 1 8 0.399 (116) -3.971 (101) 10
114 Colorado State 2 6 0.396 (117) -10.527 (114) 8
115 Tulane 2 6 0.415 (102) -12.035 (117) 8
116 Southern Miss 0 8 0.418 (100) -12.59 (118) 7
117 Non FBS 10 89 0.413 (104) -19.16 (124) 6
118 Eastern Michigan 1 7 0.383 (118) -13.517 (119) 5
119 Army 1 7 0.361 (120) -11.723 (116) 4
120 Colorado 1 7 0.409 (108) -16.357 (121) 4
121 New Mexico State 1 7 0.346 (125) -11.265 (115) 4
122 Hawaii 1 6 0.359 (121) -16.473 (122) 3
123 Memphis 1 7 0.357 (122) -14.072 (120) 2
124 Idaho 1 7 0.353 (123) -17.895 (123) 1
125 Massachusetts 0 8 0.347 (124) -23.15 (125) 0

As for the impressions of the last week (or two)?

  1. Alabama continues its leading adjusted scoring margin by taking apart previously unbeaten Mississippi State.  Obviously this leads into their big road test coming up at LSU.  LSU will not be scared of them sure, but Alabama’s offense looks downright frightening with the efficiency AJ McCarron is displaying.  I have a hard time trusting LSU’s offense, but still Baton Rouge at night is not to be slept on.
  2. Florida as you recall was the top team here for the last few weeks, but obviously cede that with the loss to Georgia.  However, the drop is merely to #4, as Georgia is not chopped liver, and they are still #2 in the RPI.  Their resume is spectacular, just a bit less spectacular than it had been.
  3. Notre Dame of course with its stunning domination of Oklahoma I think at this point has to have quieted critics – and this is coming from someone who dislikes Notre Dame!  The schedule opens up until the season ending jaunt to USC.  I am not sure they will ever wow people like Oregon does, but their #1 RPI position is extremely worthy.  That said, they are tied with Kansas State for pairwins, but beat them out with the higher RPI.

So, where does this leave us for a BCS “should” projection?

  • Alabama vs Notre Dame as your national title game.  This is pretty obvious.
  • Rose Bowl gets what it wants – Oregon vs Nebraska
  • Florida is #4 and the non-SEC winner, so automatically in
  • Rest of the lineup is Fiesta-Sugar-Orange in priority.  The automatic bids are Kansas State (Big 12), Florida State (ACC), Big East (Louisville).  Oregon State and Texas Tech get the honors for the other slots.

The bowl lineup:

  • BCS Title Game: Alabama v Notre Dame
  • Rose: Oregon v Nebraska
  • Fiesta: Kansas State v Oregon State
  • Sugar: Florida v Texas Tech
  • Orange: Florida State v Louisville

If we go to the 2014-15 “National Championship” model, with is more fleshed out you’d be looking at your six championship bowls:

  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten Champ v Pac-12 Champ)
  • Champions Bowl (either Cotton or Sugar, SEC champ v Big-12 champ)
  • Orange Bowl (ACC Champ v either Notre Dame, SEC at-large or Big Ten at-large)
  • Fiesta Bowl
  • Cotton-Sugar Bowl
  • Peach Bowl (yes, I know it has a corporate name – I don’t care)

The Top 4 seeds would be Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon.  Since a committee is selecting the four teams, them passing over a league champ for an SEC team that won’t win its division most likely seems a hard sell.  Two of the six bowls will be deemed national semifinals.  Given the rotation the BCS had, it stands to reason the Fiesta and Sugar would get its turn.  So the Sugar Bowl gets Alabama vs Oregon, while Notre Dame-Kansas State is the Fiesta Bowl matchup.  This leaves us with the other four bowls to deal with, so let’s go.

Contracted Bowls:

The Rose Bowl gets Nebraska, period.  Losing Oregon to the Final Four, they get their choice of the highest remaining teams.  Oregon State is #10 and still a worthy Pac-12 team to take, so we have an Oregon State vs Nebraska Rose Bowl

The Champions Bowl loses both its teams, but we are contracted to have an SEC-Big 12 matchup, so we go down the line to Florida vs Texas Tech.  We assume this is the Cotton Bowl this year.

The Orange Bowl gets Florida State and the best team remaining.  The best choice is Georgia, so Florida State v Georgia

The final bowl is the Peach Bowl.  As an access bowl it has no ties, just the best matchup.  We take South Carolina v Stanford.

In summary:

  • Fiesta Bowl (Semifinal A): Notre Dame v Kansas State
  • Sugar Bowl (Semifinal B): Alabama v Oregon
  • Champions Bowl: Florida v Texas Tech
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon State v Nebraska
  • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Georgia
  • Peach Bowl: South Carolina v Stanford
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