2012 College Football Update 8

Well, that was a strange week away, huh? After last week knocked Alabama off of the island, with Texas A&M winning the game of the year – it sure seemed like we were in an Oregon-Kansas State collision course. Of course, this week both Oregon and Kansas State screwed that up – and so Notre Dame is now the one lone unbeaten, and Notre Dame still has a game left with the disappointing but potent USC. Pretty clearly the SEC is back in the game here. As always, rankings below are as of yesterday’s action, and the methodology can be found here:

Rank Team W L RPI Margin PairWins
1 Notre Dame 11 0 0.684 (1) 22.909 (5) 123
2 Florida 10 1 0.666 (3) 21.426 (8) 121
3 Ohio State 11 0 0.641 (5) 18.488 (13) 121
4 Alabama 10 1 0.628 (7) 30.899 (1) 120
5 Florida State 10 1 0.58 (22) 23.068 (4) 119
6 Kansas State 10 1 0.625 (8) 22.313 (6) 118
7 Oregon 10 1 0.607 (14) 28.13 (2) 118
8 Georgia 10 1 0.607 (13) 19.587 (11) 116
9 Clemson 10 1 0.614 (11) 21.965 (7) 114
10 Stanford 9 2 0.667 (2) 16.604 (20) 113
11 LSU 9 2 0.622 (9) 18.163 (14) 112
12 Nebraska 9 2 0.652 (4) 17.453 (18) 112
13 Texas A&M 9 2 0.605 (15) 24.018 (3) 112
14 Oklahoma 8 2 0.602 (16) 20.391 (10) 111
15 Oregon State 8 2 0.635 (6) 17.684 (15) 110
16 South Carolina 9 2 0.618 (10) 17.604 (16) 108
17 Texas 8 2 0.583 (19) 15.833 (22) 107
18 Oklahoma State 7 3 0.577 (23) 19.15 (12) 106
19 UCLA 9 2 0.58 (21) 14.384 (28) 105
20 Michigan 8 3 0.608 (12) 16.235 (21) 104
21 San Jose State 9 2 0.569 (25) 15.691 (23) 103
22 Utah State 9 2 0.564 (28) 20.431 (9) 101
23 Penn State 7 4 0.565 (27) 15.472 (24) 99
24 Rutgers 9 1 0.558 (31) 12.586 (34) 98
25 Arizona 7 4 0.594 (17) 11.663 (37) 97
26 USC 7 4 0.568 (26) 15.064 (26) 97
27 Northwestern 8 3 0.571 (24) 10.319 (44) 96
28 Boise State 9 2 0.52 (55) 16.766 (19) 91
29 Fresno State 8 3 0.556 (32) 17.56 (17) 91
30 Arkansas State 8 3 0.55 (35) 10.074 (47) 89
31 Cincinnati 7 3 0.54 (41) 14.029 (30) 88
32 Michigan State 5 6 0.559 (30) 11.143 (41) 88
33 Washington 7 4 0.583 (20) 5.891 (63) 88
34 Louisville 9 1 0.548 (38) 8.312 (52) 87
35 Iowa State 6 5 0.549 (36) 10.113 (46) 85
36 Toledo 8 3 0.561 (29) 8.286 (53) 85
37 Mississippi State 8 3 0.552 (34) 12.134 (35) 84
38 Texas Tech 7 4 0.547 (39) 10.653 (43) 84
39 Virginia Tech 6 5 0.526 (49) 12.592 (33) 84
40 Wisconsin 7 4 0.546 (40) 13.817 (32) 84
41 Ball State 8 3 0.589 (18) 9.158 (49) 82
42 North Carolina 7 4 0.518 (56) 10.984 (42) 79
43 Tulsa 9 2 0.549 (37) 11.848 (36) 79
44 San Diego State 8 3 0.527 (46) 11.487 (39) 77
45 Baylor 5 5 0.521 (53) 11.543 (38) 76
46 Vanderbilt 7 4 0.536 (44) 8.961 (50) 76
47 BYU 6 5 0.514 (58) 15.365 (25) 75
48 Syracuse 6 5 0.536 (43) 8.129 (54) 75
49 TCU 6 4 0.517 (57) 9.683 (48) 74
50 UCF 8 3 0.527 (48) 14.373 (29) 73
51 Louisiana Tech 9 2 0.524 (51) 14.618 (27) 72
52 West Virginia 5 5 0.527 (47) 6.236 (59) 72
53 Georgia Tech 6 5 0.489 (69) 10.244 (45) 71
54 Northern Illinois 10 1 0.52 (54) 13.995 (31) 71
55 LA-Lafayette 6 4 0.523 (52) 7.964 (55) 70
56 Missouri 5 6 0.534 (45) 7.577 (57) 69
57 Kent State 10 1 0.556 (33) 8.832 (51) 68
58 Ole Miss 5 6 0.512 (60) 7.206 (58) 63
59 NC State 6 5 0.492 (67) 4.888 (65) 62
60 Duke 6 5 0.525 (50) 2.571 (73) 61
61 LA-Monroe 7 4 0.501 (62) 7.935 (56) 61
62 Western Kentucky 6 5 0.478 (73) 4.813 (66) 61
63 Pittsburgh 4 6 0.458 (83) 6.211 (60) 58
64 Bowling Green 7 4 0.505 (61) 5.026 (64) 57
65 Navy 7 4 0.54 (42) 4.783 (67) 57
66 Tennessee 4 7 0.495 (65) 5.894 (62) 57
67 Arkansas 4 7 0.5 (63) 2.761 (72) 56
68 Utah 4 7 0.464 (81) 6.005 (61) 56
69 Miami-FL 5 6 0.513 (59) 4.744 (68) 55
70 MTSU 7 3 0.492 (66) 3.716 (69) 54
71 Minnesota 6 5 0.489 (68) -0.017 (82) 52
72 Arizona State 6 5 0.477 (75) 11.316 (40) 51
73 Iowa 4 7 0.471 (78) 0.792 (77) 51
74 Purdue 5 6 0.499 (64) 1.406 (75) 50
75 Ohio 8 3 0.478 (74) 2.791 (71) 48
76 Troy 5 6 0.453 (86) 0.107 (81) 47
77 South Florida 3 7 0.475 (76) 1.667 (74) 46
78 Wake Forest 5 6 0.487 (70) -5.829 (105) 46
79 Auburn 3 8 0.458 (84) 0.163 (80) 43
80 California 3 9 0.481 (72) -0.974 (86) 43
81 East Carolina 7 4 0.483 (71) -0.659 (83) 43
82 Nevada 7 4 0.454 (85) 3.455 (70) 41
83 Kentucky 2 9 0.471 (77) -4.332 (99) 38
84 Virginia 4 7 0.449 (89) -3.113 (93) 38
85 Indiana 4 7 0.464 (80) -0.705 (84) 36
86 North Texas 4 7 0.461 (82) -4.132 (97) 36
87 Rice 5 6 0.444 (90) 0.589 (79) 32
88 Temple 4 6 0.452 (87) -2.585 (89) 32
89 Air Force 6 5 0.44 (93) 0.713 (78) 31
90 UTSA 7 4 0.439 (94) -4.228 (98) 31
91 Buffalo 4 7 0.451 (88) -2.802 (91) 30
92 Houston 4 7 0.436 (97) -2.663 (90) 26
93 Marshall 5 6 0.43 (101) -1.822 (87) 25
94 Connecticut 4 6 0.418 (104) -0.91 (85) 23
95 FIU 3 8 0.436 (98) -3.017 (92) 23
96 Maryland 4 7 0.441 (91) -4.51 (101) 23
97 Western Michigan 4 8 0.414 (107) -2.072 (88) 22
98 Kansas 1 10 0.437 (95) -4.81 (102) 21
99 Texas State 3 7 0.437 (96) -4.429 (100) 21
100 Wyoming 4 7 0.434 (100) -3.74 (95) 21
101 Central Michigan 5 6 0.44 (92) -6.507 (107) 20
102 Florida Atlantic 3 8 0.435 (99) -5.048 (103) 20
103 SMU 5 6 0.411 (108) 1.219 (76) 20
104 Boston College 2 9 0.424 (103) -4.127 (96) 19
105 Miami-OH 4 7 0.469 (79) -7.807 (110) 19
106 New Mexico 4 8 0.405 (111) -3.716 (94) 18
107 Illinois 2 9 0.415 (106) -7.863 (111) 17
108 UTEP 3 8 0.408 (110) -6.278 (106) 14
109 UAB 3 8 0.395 (116) -8.779 (113) 12
110 Washington State 2 9 0.403 (112) -9.998 (115) 11
111 Colorado State 3 8 0.4 (115) -8.417 (112) 9
112 Memphis 3 8 0.4 (114) -7.401 (109) 9
113 South Alabama 2 9 0.371 (123) -6.926 (108) 9
114 Army 2 9 0.4 (113) -9.425 (114) 8
115 Eastern Michigan 2 9 0.409 (109) -11.437 (118) 6
116 Tulane 2 9 0.384 (117) -11.367 (117) 6
117 Non FBS 10 97 0.416 (105) -18.7 (123) 6
118 Akron 1 10 0.356 (124) -10 (116) 5
119 UNLV 2 10 0.372 (122) -5.242 (104) 4
120 Hawaii 1 9 0.375 (119) -15.404 (120) 3
121 Colorado 1 10 0.424 (102) -19.461 (125) 1
122 Massachusetts 1 10 0.379 (118) -19.226 (124) 1
123 New Mexico State 1 9 0.348 (125) -15.533 (121) 1
124 Southern Miss 0 11 0.373 (121) -12.93 (119) 1
125 Idaho 1 10 0.374 (120) -17.131 (122) 0

Some notes from the week, and then our playoff preview:

  • I guess we should/could have seen this week’s two losses coming – or for that matter Alabama’s loss.  Alabama had recorded that wildly impressive comeback at LSU – but they also had built up their shield of invincibility against a very soft schedule – and an SEC schedule without any of the East threats.  Texas A&M is at least as good as LSU and had more playmaking with Manziell and thus they lost.  Kansas State?  Well that is less forgivable as Baylor gave up 40 points a game and 71 to West Virginia – though they have an elite offense.  Oregon merely lost an overtime game to a peer elite program – they had not faced much truly difficult opposition all season either, but Stanford is really really good.
  • So, with 2 weeks to go – what should we be focusing on.  Well, Stanford has to win at UCLA (#19 in this list) to clinch the Pac-12 North and earn the honor of facing UCLA a second time for the Pac-12 title.  If Stanford loses, then Oregon comes back into play – if it wins at #15 Oregon State in the Civil War.  For some reason, I keep expecting Oregon to emerge from this.  The funny thing is that Oregon took its loss late, which is usually suicidal – but has a chance to build up some serious brownie points.
  • Florida is in a peculiarly good position.  They are going to lose the SEC East, so their season ends with their annual tilt against #5 Florida State.  They beat Florida, their #2 RPI position will continue to strengthen.  Meanwhile they will be standing by and watching the SEC title game.  For the most part, the SEC title game winner is ahead of Florida in the pecking order.  However, if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech this week – and GT has been pretty good in Athens the two times Paul Johnson had faced them – and then beats Alabama in the SEC title game, it might be hard to keep Florida from being the #1 team in the SEC.  That said, I have to think Alabama is the most likely option.
  • From a straight BCS perspective, Alabama and Georgia and Notre Dame have the simplest “win and your in” tasks.  The ratings here are not huge Georgia fans, but as a practical BCS matter, it’s straightforward.

So how would our rankings and what we think of the rest of the season inform the BCS projection?

  • Notre Dame is #1.  Florida is the rankings #2 – but playing the season out, Alabama feels much more likely, so Notre Dame v Alabama
  • Oregon v Nebraska is the Rose Bowl, Florida State qualifies for the Orange Bowl, Kansas State qualifies for the Fiesta Bowl.
  • The Sugar Bowl loses Alabama as its tie-in, so it gets a replacement.  The choice is between Florida and Georgia, but Florida’s resume is just a ton better.
  • The Fiesta Bowl gets the first at-large.  All of the Pac-12 teams will be 3-loss teams in this scenario.  Oklahoma is the Big 12 team that would make the most sense but Kansas State is here already.  So we stay in the Pac-12 and go with UCLA – we are out of Pac-12 teams but the other conferences do not make a ton of sense.
  • The Sugar Bowl gets Clemson – very easy here.  Orange gets Louisville.

So in summation:

  • BCS Title Game: Notre Dame v Alabama
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon v Nebraska
  • Sugar Bowl: Florida v Clemson
  • Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v UCLA
  • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Louisville

A National Playoff model – now that we know what it will look like, is easier to fill.  If we assume the Fiesta Bowl and the Sugar Bowl get the National Semifinals based on – well they are the last bowls to get rotated in …

  • The Top 4 seeds are: Notre Dame, Alabama (winning the SEC), Florida State (who in this view beats Florida), and Oregon (who nudges out K-State with wins over Oregon State and UCLA, of course Stanford wins out this is moot and goes to K-State).  Oregon/Kansas State get the #3 seed in this view.
  • As such, Notre Dame plays Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, Alabama plays Oregon in the Sugar Bowl.
  • The Sugar Bowl as part of the national title rotation sends its champs to other places – but since both K-State and Alabama are actual semifinalists, no big deal.
  • The Rose Bowl loses Oregon, but gets a replacement – Oregon takes Stanford here and goes Stanford-Nebraska for the Rose Bowl (avoiding a regular season rematch of Nebraska-UCLA)
  • The Orange Bowl loses Florida State and goes with Clemson instead.  Florida as the next best SEC team goes here.
  • The Peach Bowl and Cotton get whomever … we got with Kansas State v Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and Georgia v Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl.
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One thought on “2012 College Football Update 8

  1. If Ohio State is eligible in your poll, then they have to be #2, at least. They’ve taken care of business, and Florida hasn’t. It is so hard to win every game, regardless of what conference you play in.

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