College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #4

(As always, we lay out the process here)

In one of the more entertaining and unpredictable Saturday’s in a while, our 17 unbeatens went down to 14.  Michigan losing at Penn State was a mild surprise – but you figured Penn State would be geared up.  It was their biggest game this season at home for a team that does not have a ton to play for.  Oklahoma losing at Texas was a shocker given the form both teams had shown entering.  Stanford?  Well, that’s life on the road in a tough league.  We also have Missouri having the most Pyrrhic of victories, stunning Georgia while losing their QB for the season.  On paper they have the inside track in the SEC East.  In reality, uh oh.  What else of value?  Oregon is still Oregon, Washington isn’t quite yet – and LSU registered another high quality scalp to put themselves squarely as the best 1-loss team in the nation.  The rest of the rankings/standings?

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (3) Oregon
  4. (5) Miami-FL
  5. (10) Ohio State
  6. (7) Alabama
  7. (4) Clemson
  8. (9) Missouri
  9. (8) UCLA
  10. (11) Louisville
  11. (12) Texas Tech
  12. (13) Fresno State
  13. (14) Houston
  14. (19) LSU
  15. (17) Northern Illinois
  16. (6) Stanford
  17. (25) South Carolina
  18. (21) Ball State
  19. (–) Oregon State
  20. (16) Michigan
  21. (22) Oklahoma State
  22. (24)  Virginia Tech
  23. (–) Michigan State
  24. (–) Auburn
  25. (–) Texas A&M

Michigan State and Oregon State move in after just solid play so far – Oregon State in particular shaking off that ghastly lost to Eastern Washington to put a nice resume together with some terrific performances.  Fortunately for them, the Pac gives them a LOT of chances to create value.  Michigan State might be the best defense in the country.  How do the bowl projections change?

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Oregon, Alabama, Louisville and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. Miami-FL is at-large and #4 so they get in
  6. This leaves 8 of the 10 spots filled – so 2 at-larges left.  This week they go to Missouri, UCLA.  Clemson and LSU are squeezed out by the 2-team max rule.

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl:  Miami-FL v Missouri
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v  Louisville
  • Fiesta Bowl: UCLA v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Miami-FL
  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Ohio State
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama v Texas Tech
  • Fiesta Bowl: UCLA v Missouri
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  LSU v Louisville

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets.

Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Oregon
  3. Florida State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Indiana
  6. Miami-FL
  7. LSU
  8. Arizona State
  9. Ohio State
  10. Missouri
  11. Clemson
  12. Georgia
  13. Fresno State
  14. Washington
  15. Utah
  16. Texas Tech
  17. Nebraska
  18. UCLA
  19. Oregon State
  20. Alabama

Top 20 defenses

  1. Florida
  2. Washington
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Alabama
  5. Louisville
  6. Florida State
  7. Wisconsin
  8. BYU
  9. Memphis
  10. UCLA
  11. Oregon
  12. Stanford
  13. Clemson
  14. Iowa
  15. Auburn
  16. Missouri
  17. Mississippi State
  18. TCU
  19. Michigan State
  20. Miami-FL

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Georgia
  2. California
  3. Washington
  4. Utah
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Stanford
  8. Virginia
  9. Indiana
  10. Mississippi State
  11. Kentucky
  12. Boston College
  13. Florida
  14. LSU
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Florida State
  17. North Carolina
  18. Arizona State
  19. Louisiana-Monroe
  20. Syracuse

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (10.23)
  2. SEC (9.73)
  3. ACC (9.24)
  4. Big 12 (9.13)
  5. Big Ten (9.07)
  6. Sun Belt (7.31)
  7. American (7.04)
  8. Mountain West (6.35)
  9. Independent (6.16)
  10. MAC (6.14)
  11. Conference USA (5.73)

 

 

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