College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #5

(As always, we lay out the process here)

Well, what was I saying about LSU?  After losing to Ole Miss, suddenly the SEC is a complete mess – outside of Alabama of course.  With Georgia and South Carolina losing, as well as Missouri taking down Florida, the Tigers rather inconceivably are in really good shape to make the SEC title game.  Georgia is clearly decimated by injury now, as is Florida – despite their very obvious virtues on offense and defense, there is only so much one can endure.  Meanwhile, Florida State delivered the most dominant statement of the year clearly, going into Clemson and decapitating a very good Clemson team.  Additionally, Stanford bounced back big with a very workmanlike win against UCLA, while Miami-FL dodged a bullet in Chapel Hill.  If they can get by Wake Forest, it sets up the biggest Florida State-Miami game since I was in college the first time.  As for the rest of the Top 25, Baylor’s annihilation of Iowa State has kept them trucking, and Louisville’s dreams basically died.  Otherwise?

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (3) Oregon
  4. (6) Alabama
  5. (5) Ohio State
  6. (8) Missouri
  7. (4) Miami-FL
  8. (12) Fresno State
  9. (11) Texas Tech
  10. (15) Northern Illinois
  11. (16) Stanford
  12. (20) Michigan
  13. (24) Auburn
  14. (9) UCLA
  15. (21) Oklahoma State
  16. (19) Oregon State
  17. (14) LSU
  18. (22) Virginia Tech
  19. (18) Ball State
  20. (–) Oklahoma
  21. (23) Michigan State
  22. (–) LA-Lafayette
  23. (–) Central Florida
  24. (17) South Carolina
  25. (10) Louisville

Stanford at #11 move in place of LSU for the top 1-loss team.  This is probably a fair result.  They have played the 7th toughest schedule to date and have the top win quality of any “beaten” team.  After all, Utah is a road loss to a decent enough side – for now.  While the carnage last week upset the middle of the rankings, the top did not shift quite as much.  The implications?

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Oregon, Alabama, Central Florida and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Missouri, Miami-FL and Texas Tech

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl:  Miami-FL v UCF
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v  Texas Tech
  • Fiesta Bowl: Missouri v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Alabama
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Ohio State
  • Cotton Bowl: Missouri v Texas Tech
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  Michigan v Auburn

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets.

Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Oregon
  3. Florida State
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Arizona State
  6. Indiana
  7. Ohio State
  8. Missouri
  9. Miami-FL
  10. LSU
  11. Alabama
  12. Michigan
  13. Houston
  14. Louisville
  15. Fresno State
  16. Clemson
  17. Wisconsin
  18. Georgia
  19. Georgia Tech
  20. Utah

Top 20 defenses

  1. Virginia Tech
  2. Alabama
  3. Florida
  4. Florida State
  5. Stanford
  6. Louisville
  7. Washington
  8. Wisconsin
  9. UCLA
  10. BYU
  11. Memphis
  12. TCU
  13. USC
  14. Oregon
  15. Missouri
  16. Michigan State
  17. Auburn
  18. Mississippi State
  19. Utah State
  20. Iowa

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Georgia
  2. California
  3. Washington
  4. Utah
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Stanford
  8. Virginia
  9. Indiana
  10. Mississippi State
  11. Kentucky
  12. Boston College
  13. Florida
  14. LSU
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Florida State
  17. North Carolina
  18. Arizona State
  19. Louisiana-Monroe
  20. Syracuse

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (10.12)
  2. SEC (9.63)
  3. Big Ten (9.08)
  4. ACC (9.08)
  5. Big 12 (9.06)
  6. Sun Belt (7.36)
  7. American (6.86)
  8. Mountain West (6.41)
  9. MAC (6.36)
  10. Independent (6.20)
  11. Conference USA (5.91)
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2 thoughts on “College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #5

    1. @Kansas State is not an amazing win. Interestingly they beat a team by 57 who were a terrible call away from perhaps upsetting Ohio State, if you want a barometer.

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