College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #6

(As always, we lay out the process here)

With UCLA going down to Oregon in the 2nd half of their Pac-12 North gauntlet, they slip off the island for now.  Nebraska’s shocking loss to Minnesota did not help their case any certainly.  At the same time, Ohio State crushing Penn State in its penultimate chance to beat a good opponent before the Big Ten Championship went about as well as you could ask.  For a team which let Buffalo hang around, they have improved quite a bit.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Miami (the latter BARELY) kept the first big Miami-FSU game in years alive.  Finally, in one of the best games of the weekend, Texas Tech falls from the unbeaten ranks.  Oklahoma awaits Baylor next Thursday for more giant killing.  For the rest of the Top 25 (note this does not include the action from Monday to Thursday):

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (3) Oregon
  4. (5) Ohio State
  5. (4) Alabama
  6. (7) Miami-FL
  7. (8) Fresno State
  8. (11) Stanford
  9. (10) Northern Illinois
  10. (15) Oklahoma State
  11. (13) Auburn
  12. (12) Michigan
  13. (9) Texas Tech
  14. (19) Ball State
  15. (21) Michigan State
  16. (24) South Carolina
  17. (6) Missouri
  18. (17) LSU
  19. (20) Oklahoma
  20. (–) Houston
  21. (22) LA-Lafayette
  22. (–) BYU
  23. (–) Clemson
  24. (–) Louisville
  25. (23) Central Florida

Stanford continues their move up with a solid win on the road against a good Oregon State side – they remain first in line for now among the 1-lossers.  How does this impact the BCS projections?  With the top 3 staying the same, not that much.

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Oregon, Alabama, Houston and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Miami-FL, Stanford, Oklahoma State

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl:  Oregon v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl:  Miami-FL v  Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Houston
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Auburn
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama v Oklahoma State
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  Michigan v Texas Tech

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets.

Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Arizona State
  6. Ohio State
  7. Indiana
  8. Alabama
  9. Houston
  10. Missouri
  11. Miami-FL
  12. LSU
  13. Michigan
  14. Wisconsin
  15. Louisville
  16. Central Florida
  17. Clemson
  18. Georgia
  19. Georgia Tech
  20. East Carolina

Top 20 defenses

  1. Virginia Tech
  2. Alabama
  3. Florida
  4. Stanford
  5. Florida State
  6. Louisville
  7. USC
  8. Michigan State
  9. BYU
  10. Wisconsin
  11. Oregon
  12. Iowa
  13. Memphis
  14. Washington
  15. UCLA
  16. TCU
  17. Houston
  18. Auburn
  19. Ohio State
  20. Missouri

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Georgia
  2. North Carolina
  3. Stanford
  4. Arizona State
  5. Florida
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Utah
  8. Virginia
  9. Virginia Tech
  10. Indiana
  11. Tennessee
  12. Texas A&M
  13. Purdue
  14. Pittsburgh
  15. California
  16. Iowa State
  17. Washington
  18. TCU
  19. Kansas
  20. Oklahoma

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (9.85)
  2. SEC (9.57)
  3. Big 12 (9.06)
  4. Big Ten (9.01)
  5. ACC (8.88)
  6. Sun Belt (7.24)
  7. Independent (6.90)
  8. American (6.87)
  9. MAC (6.49)
  10. Mountain West (6.32)
  11. Conference USA (6.16)
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