College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #7

(As always, we lay out the process here) Well, we don’t have to worry about Miami now, do we?  So we are down to 7, with a couple of fascinating Thursday night games involving two of them – #1 Baylor faces down #17 Oklahoma,  who has already played dream shatterer to Texas Tech, while Oregon tries to avenge its loss to #8 Stanford from a year ago.  Similarly Alabama has their “should not be a big deal on paper” game against #21 LSU.  But we also know LSU has the chops to pull off the upset.  I’d also note #12 Michigan State’s trip to Lincoln as another big game for the shape of the non-Buckeye Big Ten.  The rankings???

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (3) Oregon
  4. (4) Ohio State
  5. (5) Alabama
  6. (7) Fresno State
  7. (9) Northern Illinois
  8. (8) Stanford
  9. (10) Oklahoma State
  10. (11) Auburn
  11. (6) Miami-FL
  12. (15) Michigan State
  13. (16) South Carolina
  14. (17) Missouri
  15. (14) Ball State
  16. (23) Clemson
  17. (19) Oklahoma
  18. (20) Houston
  19. (–) Arizona State
  20. (21) LA-Lafayette
  21. (18) LSU
  22. (22) BYU
  23. (24) Louisville
  24. (25) Central Florida
  25. (–) Arizona

Stanford continues their move up with a solid win on the road against a good Oregon State side – they remain first in line for now among the 1-lossers.  How does this impact the BCS projections?  With the top 3 staying the same, not that much.

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Oregon, Alabama, Houston and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Stanford, Oklahoma State, Auburn

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl:  Oregon v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl:  Auburn v Oklahoma State
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Houston
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl: Alabama v Oklahoma State
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  South Carolina v  Auburn

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets. Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon
  4. Arizona State
  5. Texas A&M
  6. Ohio State
  7. Indiana
  8. Alabama
  9. Clemson
  10. Missouri
  11. Houston
  12. LSU
  13. UCF
  14. Louisville
  15. Miami-FL
  16. Wisconsin
  17. Oklahoma State
  18. Georgia
  19. Northern Illinois
  20. Marshall

Top 20 defenses

  1. Alabama
  2. Virginia Tech
  3. Florida
  4. Florida State
  5. Stanford
  6. Michigan
  7. USC
  8. Louisville
  9. Wisconsin
  10. BYU
  11. Iowa
  12. Oregon
  13. Washington
  14. Missouri
  15. UCLA
  16. North Texas
  17. Utah State
  18. Ohio State
  19. Memphis
  20. TCU

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Georgia
  2. Purdue
  3. Virginia
  4. Utah
  5. Stanford
  6. North Carolina
  7. Tennessee
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Arizona State
  10. Indiana
  11. Florida
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. BYU
  14. Washington
  15. Mississippi State
  16. California
  17. Memphis
  18. Florida State
  19. Pittsburgh
  20. Arkansas

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (9.82)
  2. SEC (9.49)
  3. Big 12 (8.95)
  4. Big Ten (8.90)
  5. ACC (8,79)
  6. Sun Belt (7.38)
  7. American (6.98)
  8. Independent (6.86)
  9. MAC (6.53)
  10. Mountain West (6.44)
  11. Conference USA (6.25)
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