College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #8

(As always, we lay out the process here)

Happy Thursday indeed – well not yesterday for Georgia Tech, but never mind.  But with Stanford beating Oregon in a true good vs evil sort of standoff, that with Alabama’s beat down of LSU starts to make things a bit clearer.  That said, until Baylor starts losing – and they began their hell stretch with a great performance over Oklahoma – there is probably not room for a 1-loss team at the top for the near future.  Where do we stand (this week’s games not included):

  1. (1) Baylor
  2. (2) Florida State
  3. (4) Ohio State
  4. (5) Alabama
  5. (3) Oregon
  6. (8) Stanford
  7. (6) Fresno State
  8. (7) Northern Illinois
  9. (9) Oklahoma State
  10. (10) Auburn
  11. (14) Missouri
  12. (12) Michigan State
  13. (13) South Carolina
  14. (15) Ball State
  15. (19) Arizona State
  16. (16) Clemson
  17. (20) LA-Lafayette
  18. (24) UCF
  19. (–) UCLA
  20. (–) Wisconsin
  21. (23) Louisville
  22. (18) Houston
  23. (–) Texas A&M
  24. (22) BYU
  25. Minnesota

Stanford’s dominant win over Oregon grabbed the headlines, as well it should.  Even if our standings put Oregon as the highest rated Pac-12 team by a smidge (after all Stanford still a better loss than Utah), Stanford is in the Pac-12 drivers seat now, and if they win out – you probably do not have to worry about them not being recognized.  What has happened in that program has been miraculous.  How is the bowl lineup affected?

  1. Baylor v Florida State – the National Title Game
  2. Stanford, Alabama, UCF and Ohio State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno rings the bell.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Oregon, Oklahoma State, Auburn.  Northern Illinois is tempting, but from a BCS perspective (especially considering last year’s bowl result) the other two schools win out.

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Baylor v Florida State
  • Rose Bowl:  Stanford v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Auburn v Oregon
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v Central Florida
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Baylor v Alabama
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Florida State v Ohio State
  • Orange Bowl: Auburn v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl: Oregon v Missouri
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  Oklahoma State v South Carolina

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets. Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Fresno State
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Oregon
  5. Ohio State
  6. Indiana
  7. Arizona State
  8. Alabama
  9. Clemson
  10. Missouri
  11. Houston
  12. LSU
  13. Marshall
  14. East Carolina
  15. Miami-FL
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. UCF
  18. Wisconsin
  19. Northern Illinois
  20. Louisville

Top 20 defenses

  1. Alabama
  2. Stanford
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Florida State
  5. Michigan State
  6. Florida
  7. Louisville
  8. Wisconsin
  9. USC
  10. BYU
  11. Washington
  12. Missouri
  13. Oregon
  14. Iowa
  15. North Texas
  16. Baylor
  17. Utah State
  18. Ohio State
  19. Kent State
  20. Houston

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Purdue
  2. Stanford
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Tennessee
  5. Utah
  6. Pittsburgh
  7. Georgia
  8. Virginia
  9. Arizona State
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Mississippi State
  12. BYU
  13. North Carolina
  14. Kansas
  15. Indiana
  16. Arkansas
  17. California
  18. Oklahoma
  19. South Carolina
  20. Florida

Conferences Ratings

  1. Pac 12 (9.53)
  2. SEC (9.42)
  3. Big 12 (8.97)
  4. Big Ten (8.90)
  5. ACC (8.79)
  6. Sun Belt (7.49)
  7. American (7.05)
  8. Independent (6.77)
  9. MAC (6.63)
  10. Mountain West (6.45)
  11. Conference USA (6.39)
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