College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #10

(As always, we lay out the process here) First of all, Happy Thanksgiving.  Obviously, the holiday (and me being in transit) has impacted the weekly missive.  But clearly Baylor’s loss to Okie State changes things – but how much?  Their resume was very strong coming in – and the results are a little surprising, even to me.  I hesitate to use intervention to the numbers as much as possible when projecting but I think it can be fair.  But first the numbers, and Okie State vaults into solid Top 5 territory.  The win was better for them than the loss was bad for Baylor.

  1. (2) Florida State
  2. (1) Baylor
  3. (3) Ohio State
  4. (4) Alabama
  5. (8) Oklahoma State
  6. (6) Northern Illinois
  7. (7) Fresno State
  8. (9) Auburn
  9. (5) Oregon
  10. (11) Michigan State
  11. (10) Stanford
  12. (13) Missouri
  13. (15) Arizona State
  14. (12) South Carolina
  15. (17) Wisconsin
  16. (14) Clemson
  17. (16) LA-Lafayette
  18. (18) Central Florida
  19. (21) Cincinnati
  20. (23) East Carolina
  21. (20) Louisville
  22. (22) Ball State
  23. (–) Oklahoma
  24. (–) LSU
  25. (–) Marshall

The Iron Bowl with #4 Alabama v #8 Auburn top the charts for this week’s matches.  That said, the matchup to me feels more on paper than in reality.  There is a class dropoff after number 6 to me anyway.  But I digress.  More importantly, Baylor is no longer in the drivers seat for the Big 12.  How much should that impact their fate, given the numbers are still super strong?  Personally, the question comes down to whether any of its peers are relatively close.  I say Ohio State qualifies. :

  1. Florida State v Ohio State – the National Title Game
  2. Stanford, Alabama, UCF and Oklahoma State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Northern Illinois still leads.
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Baylor, Auburn and Oregon.  Fresno State is tempting, but from a BCS perspective (especially considering last year’s bowl result) the other two schools win out.

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Florida State v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl:  Stanford v Auburn
  • Orange Bowl: Oregon v Baylor
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v UCF
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Northern Illinois

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Florida State v Oklahoma State
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Ohio State v Alabama
  • Orange Bowl:  Clemson v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl: Baylor v Oregon
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford v Missouri
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  Auburn v Northern Illinois

One final bit of component rankings – for those interested in some of the details of the experiment.  Offense/Defense is based on yards/pts/turnovers and related to the opponent.  So a team which gets 300 yards against a great defense (or great against others) gets more credit than one that gets 300 yards against an opponent who usually engages in track meets. Top 20 offenses

  1. Baylor
  2. Florida State
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Ohio State
  5. Oregon
  6. Arizona State
  7. Clemson
  8. Georgia
  9. Indiana
  10. Oklahoma State
  11. East Carolina
  12. Northern Illinois
  13. Missouri
  14. Fresno State
  15. Washington
  16. Alabama
  17. Marshall
  18. Auburn
  19. LSU
  20. UCF

Top 20 defenses

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida State
  3. Virginia Tech
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Stanford
  6. Michigan State
  7. Utah State
  8. Louisville
  9. Oklahoma State
  10. Florida
  11. USC
  12. Missouri
  13. Iowa
  14. Houston
  15. North Texas
  16. BYU
  17. Ohio State
  18. Memphis
  19. Washington
  20. Oregon

Top 20 Toughest Schedules

  1. Virginia Tech
  2. Indiana
  3. Purdue
  4. Tennessee
  5. Utah
  6. Arizona State
  7. Virginia
  8. Mississippi State
  9. Georgia
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Pittsburgh
  12. North Carolina
  13. Idaho
  14. Stanford
  15. Notre Dame
  16. Texas A&M
  17. Memphis
  18. California
  19. BYU
  20. Auburn

Conferences Ratings

  1. SEC (9.36)
  2. Pac-12 (9.25)
  3. ACC (8.91)
  4. Big 12 (8.71)
  5. Big Ten (8.63)
  6. Sun Belt (7.29)
  7. American (7.19)
  8. Independent (6.92)
  9. Conference USA (6.72)
  10. MAC (6.69)
  11. Mountain West (6.63)
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