College Football Rankings Experiment 2013 – Standings #11

(As always, we lay out the process here) You saw the Auburn game.  Championship Week has already kicked off.  Northern Illinois clearly won’t be joining us in the BCS, and Fresno State’s case is in peril with its loss.  In any case, projections below take that into account – so enjoy.  Rankings are through last week

  1. (1) Florida State
  2. (2) Baylor
  3. (3) Ohio State
  4. (5) Oklahoma State
  5. (6) Northern Illinois
  6. (4) Alabama
  7. (8) Auburn
  8. (10) Michigan State
  9. (7) Fresno State
  10. (9) Oregon
  11. (13) Arizona State
  12. (14) South Carolina
  13. (11) Stanford
  14. (12) Missouri
  15. (19) Cincinnati
  16. (18) Central Florida
  17. (21) Louisville
  18. (22) Ball State
  19. (16) Clemson
  20. (25) Marshall
  21. (23) Oklahoma
  22. (24) LSU
  23. (–) Duke
  24. (15) Wisconsin
  25. (–) UCLA

Bowl projections – right now rankings keep Fresno State there, although as a matter of realism, I doubt this holds up

  1. Florida State v Ohio State – the National Title Game
  2. Arizona State, Auburn, UCF and Oklahoma State round out the BCS league champs.  All automatic.
  3. Any non-AQ champ in the Top 12 would go here.  Fresno State
  4. Notre Dame not in Final 8 – no worries about them
  5. No other automatic at-larges
  6. This leaves 7 of the 10 spots filled – so 3 at-larges left.  This week they go to Baylor, Alabama and Michigan State.  Fresno State is tempting, but from a BCS perspective (especially considering last year’s bowl result) the other two schools win out.

So projecting bowls with this lot?

  • BCS Title Game: Florida State v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl:  Arizona State v Michigan State
  • Orange Bowl: Alabama v Baylor
  • Sugar Bowl: Auburn v UCF
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Fresno State

But next year, there won’t be a BCS to kick around, so what would we do then?  Using next year’s alignment – I use a combination of ranking, geographic preference and what would be good on TV:

  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal 1): Florida State v Oklahoma State
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal 2): Ohio State v Baylor
  • Orange Bowl:  Alabama v Clemson
  • Cotton Bowl: Auburn v Michigan State
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oregon v Fresno State
  • Chik-Fil-A Bowl:  South Carolina v Stanford

So near the end, stick with the elements.

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