2014 College Football – Week 5 – Starting to Catch Up

One of the maxims I have maintained about this exercise is that each week’s rankings are not a future indicator – but a summary of what we know about the season up to now.  Florida State’s schedule, for instance – had a combined one win against FBS opposition.  However, with a true road win at NC State combined with Clemson, Oklahoma State and even Yale defeating Army, Florida State’s profile made a quantum leap.  Nebraska’s win over Miami-FL looks better now, and the sheer destruction wrought by Michigan State combined with the Oregon loss not being at all bad, and their standing is enhanced.  West Virginia, a 2-2 team has actually played really well – and these rankings reflect that.  After all, speculation about which teams have “tough roads” ahead are well informed perhaps, but not backed by results.  Each week we learn more about the teams – as well as about what their resumes are really.

Anyway, with 5 weeks in the hopper, and our 2nd week of true standings, some of the big boys are starting to catch up.  And this week looks to be particularly massive at the top of the table

  1. THURSDAY: (23) Arizona at (11) Oregon
  2. (31) Miami-FL at (27) Georgia Tech
  3. (13) Texas A&M at (4) Mississippi State
  4. (18) Florida at (37) Tennessee
  5. (1) Alabama at (3) Ole Miss
  6. (5) Oklahoma at (16) TCU
  7. (26) Stanford at (7) Notre Dame
  8. (8) LSU at (2) Auburn
  9. (46) Arizona State at (12) USC
  10. (14) Nebraska at (21) Michigan State
  11. (68) Utah at (6) UCLA

As far as the one-man playoff selection?

  • The final 4: Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma and UCLA still get the top 4 spots.  While UCLA is slightly behind the other two SEC teams, its conference kingpin status elevates them into the Top 4.  This gives you an Alabama-UCLA Sugar Bowl and Auburn-Oklahoma Rose Bowl.
  • The other Big 5 champs (we use losses in conference as first tiebreaker, and rating as the second) are Florida State for the ACC and Nebraska for the Big Ten.  East Carolina is the current “best of the rest” at #25.
  • This speaks for seven of the 12 spots.  That leaves Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Baylor and BYU as the reamining bids.  LSU is ranked above BYU, but it is a small margin – small enough that the undefeated record would probably seduce a selection committee for now.  Based on the Orange Bowl contract, Florida State plays the highest ranked of SEC/Big Ten/ND, so that puts Ole Miss in play.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.  Note we get a particularly juicy Cotton Bowl.  Nebraska in this projection goes to the Fiesta Bowl with its longtime Big XII old affiliation.  One expects Notre Dame to be able to carry the Atlanta game more.
    • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v UCLA
    • Rose Bowl: Auburn v Oklahoma
    • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Ole Miss
    • Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v Baylor
    • Peach Bowl: Notre Dame v East Carolina
    • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v BYU

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 4 0 0.96 (2) 1 (1) 0.98
2 Auburn 4 0 0.926 (3) 0.848 (7) 0.887
3 Ole Miss 4 0 0.843 (13) 0.921 (3) 0.882
4 Mississippi State 4 0 0.856 (10) 0.866 (6) 0.861
5 Oklahoma 4 0 0.895 (4) 0.79 (11) 0.842
6 UCLA 4 0 1 (1) 0.659 (31) 0.829
7 Notre Dame 4 0 0.851 (11) 0.767 (16) 0.809
8 LSU 4 1 0.641 (33) 0.963 (2) 0.802
9 Baylor 4 0 0.725 (17) 0.874 (5) 0.8
10 BYU 4 0 0.863 (9) 0.736 (22) 0.799
11 Oregon 4 0 0.873 (6) 0.699 (24) 0.786
12 USC 3 1 0.758 (16) 0.81 (8) 0.784
13 Texas A&M 5 0 0.872 (7) 0.694 (26) 0.783
14 Nebraska 5 0 0.849 (12) 0.66 (29) 0.754
15 Florida State 4 0 0.893 (5) 0.6 (43) 0.747
16 TCU 3 0 0.791 (15) 0.695 (25) 0.743
17 Louisville 4 1 0.678 (25) 0.798 (10) 0.738
18 Florida 2 1 0.686 (24) 0.776 (15) 0.731
19 Georgia 3 1 0.708 (22) 0.74 (21) 0.724
20 West Virginia 2 2 0.567 (52) 0.88 (4) 0.724
21 Michigan State 3 1 0.659 (28) 0.777 (14) 0.718
22 Arkansas 3 2 0.622 (36) 0.788 (12) 0.705
23 Arizona 4 0 0.871 (8) 0.528 (58) 0.7
24 Wisconsin 3 1 0.571 (50) 0.806 (9) 0.689
25 East Carolina 3 1 0.718 (18) 0.652 (34) 0.685
26 Stanford 3 1 0.582 (48) 0.783 (13) 0.682
27 Georgia Tech 4 0 0.799 (14) 0.559 (52) 0.679
28 Marshall 4 0 0.714 (20) 0.637 (35) 0.676
29 Ohio State 3 1 0.593 (45) 0.747 (18) 0.67
30 NC State 4 1 0.655 (30) 0.657 (33) 0.656
31 Miami-FL 3 2 0.563 (54) 0.741 (20) 0.652
32 Minnesota 4 1 0.693 (23) 0.583 (45) 0.638
33 Boise State 3 2 0.578 (49) 0.69 (27) 0.634
34 Northern Illinois 3 1 0.674 (26) 0.571 (46) 0.623
35 Virginia Tech 3 2 0.483 (71) 0.762 (17) 0.623
36 Penn State 4 1 0.617 (37) 0.616 (39) 0.616
37 Tennessee 2 2 0.521 (63) 0.703 (23) 0.612
38 Kansas State 3 1 0.609 (39) 0.612 (41) 0.611
39 Iowa 4 1 0.548 (59) 0.661 (28) 0.604
40 Missouri 4 1 0.648 (32) 0.556 (54) 0.602
41 Pittsburgh 3 2 0.459 (74) 0.742 (19) 0.601
42 Colorado State 3 1 0.657 (29) 0.539 (55) 0.598
43 Memphis 2 2 0.589 (47) 0.603 (42) 0.596
44 California 3 1 0.712 (21) 0.478 (73) 0.595
45 South Carolina 3 2 0.568 (51) 0.62 (38) 0.594
46 Arizona State 3 1 0.608 (40) 0.566 (48) 0.587
47 Nevada 3 1 0.717 (19) 0.449 (80) 0.583
48 Maryland 4 1 0.666 (27) 0.496 (66) 0.581
49 Kentucky 3 1 0.601 (44) 0.561 (50) 0.581
50 Georgia Southern 3 2 0.561 (55) 0.599 (44) 0.58
51 Rutgers 4 1 0.628 (34) 0.524 (59) 0.576
52 Oregon State 3 1 0.627 (35) 0.52 (60) 0.574
53 Clemson 2 2 0.511 (65) 0.623 (37) 0.567
54 Texas 2 2 0.566 (53) 0.561 (51) 0.563
55 Duke 4 1 0.603 (42) 0.507 (63) 0.555
56 Oklahoma State 3 1 0.61 (38) 0.499 (65) 0.555
57 Virginia 3 2 0.536 (60) 0.565 (49) 0.55
58 Boston College 3 2 0.438 (79) 0.659 (30) 0.549
59 MTSU 3 2 0.602 (43) 0.491 (68) 0.547
60 Washington 4 1 0.56 (56) 0.503 (64) 0.532
61 Air Force 3 1 0.653 (31) 0.409 (90) 0.531
62 Akron 2 2 0.493 (69) 0.559 (53) 0.526
63 Navy 2 3 0.422 (86) 0.628 (36) 0.525
64 Washington State 2 3 0.434 (82) 0.614 (40) 0.524
65 Western Kentucky 2 2 0.59 (46) 0.447 (82) 0.519
66 Cincinnati 2 1 0.534 (61) 0.475 (74) 0.504
67 Temple 3 1 0.504 (67) 0.496 (67) 0.5
68 Utah 3 1 0.531 (62) 0.453 (78) 0.492
69 Illinois 3 2 0.551 (58) 0.423 (86) 0.487
70 Northwestern 2 2 0.437 (81) 0.534 (56) 0.485
71 LA-Monroe 3 1 0.558 (57) 0.407 (91) 0.482
72 Syracuse 2 2 0.429 (84) 0.519 (61) 0.474
73 Indiana 2 2 0.454 (75) 0.491 (69) 0.472
74 Michigan 2 3 0.283 (108) 0.658 (32) 0.471
75 Arkansas State 2 2 0.451 (76) 0.48 (72) 0.465
76 Wyoming 3 2 0.605 (41) 0.317 (107) 0.461
77 Rice 1 3 0.429 (85) 0.488 (70) 0.459
78 Texas Tech 2 2 0.481 (72) 0.429 (85) 0.455
79 UAB 2 2 0.327 (101) 0.568 (47) 0.447
80 Texas State 2 2 0.408 (88) 0.485 (71) 0.446
81 Louisiana Tech 2 3 0.487 (70) 0.394 (92) 0.441
82 North Carolina 2 2 0.416 (87) 0.465 (76) 0.44
83 Old Dominion 3 2 0.496 (68) 0.382 (93) 0.439
84 Colorado 2 3 0.36 (94) 0.517 (62) 0.439
85 South Alabama 2 2 0.445 (77) 0.431 (84) 0.438
86 Fresno State 2 3 0.437 (80) 0.421 (89) 0.429
87 Iowa State 1 3 0.314 (104) 0.534 (57) 0.424
88 Bowling Green 3 2 0.513 (64) 0.335 (100) 0.424
89 Western Michigan 2 2 0.433 (83) 0.376 (95) 0.404
90 Florida Atlantic 2 3 0.51 (66) 0.296 (111) 0.403
91 Houston 2 2 0.342 (97) 0.458 (77) 0.4
92 UTSA 1 3 0.444 (78) 0.354 (99) 0.399
93 UCF 1 2 0.316 (103) 0.453 (79) 0.385
94 UTEP 2 2 0.4 (89) 0.368 (97) 0.384
95 Ohio 3 2 0.469 (73) 0.293 (113) 0.381
96 San Jose State 1 3 0.334 (99) 0.422 (87) 0.378
97 Toledo 3 2 0.371 (92) 0.378 (94) 0.375
98 Buffalo 3 2 0.285 (107) 0.448 (81) 0.367
99 Utah State 2 2 0.385 (90) 0.328 (103) 0.357
100 FIU 2 3 0.272 (110) 0.422 (88) 0.347
101 Appalachian State 1 3 0.21 (116) 0.472 (75) 0.341
102 New Mexico State 2 3 0.332 (100) 0.324 (104) 0.328
103 San Diego State 2 2 0.358 (95) 0.295 (112) 0.327
104 Tulsa 1 3 0.219 (113) 0.434 (83) 0.326
105 Kansas 2 2 0.341 (98) 0.282 (115) 0.311
106 LA-Lafayette 1 3 0.28 (109) 0.335 (101) 0.308
107 Central Michigan 2 3 0.344 (96) 0.268 (117) 0.306
108 South Florida 2 3 0.318 (102) 0.286 (114) 0.302
109 Southern Miss 2 3 0.385 (91) 0.195 (124) 0.29
110 Purdue 2 3 0.237 (112) 0.323 (105) 0.28
111 Tulane 1 4 0.197 (118) 0.36 (98) 0.278
112 Hawaii 1 3 0.179 (121) 0.375 (96) 0.277
113 New Mexico 1 3 0.239 (111) 0.296 (110) 0.268
114 North Texas 2 2 0.362 (93) 0.144 (126) 0.253
115 Wake Forest 2 3 0.301 (106) 0.198 (123) 0.249
116 Connecticut 1 4 0.201 (117) 0.281 (116) 0.241
117 Ball State 1 3 0.146 (124) 0.32 (106) 0.233
118 Georgia State 1 3 0.149 (123) 0.315 (108) 0.232
119 Army 1 3 0.214 (115) 0.231 (119) 0.222
120 Vanderbilt 1 4 0.217 (114) 0.211 (121) 0.214
121 UNLV 1 4 0.189 (120) 0.219 (120) 0.204
122 SMU 0 4 0.153 (122) 0.247 (118) 0.2
123 Miami-OH 0 5 0.07 (127) 0.307 (109) 0.189
124 Idaho 0 4 0 (129) 0.328 (102) 0.164
125 Eastern Michigan 1 3 0.301 (105) 0 (129) 0.15
126 Massachusetts 0 5 0.075 (126) 0.21 (122) 0.143
127 Non FBS 7 88 0.191 (119) 0.09 (128) 0.141
128 Kent State 0 4 0.114 (125) 0.132 (127) 0.123
129 Troy 0 5 0.056 (128) 0.169 (125) 0.112
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