2014 College Football – Week 8 – Cannibalism

It is very possible that the four best teams in the country reside in the two states west of Georgia.  Certainly Alabama’s evisceration of Texas A&M (yes, I know – they aren’t that good) improved their quality measures a lot.  In terms offense and defense, Alabama has been very strong.  That said, they are behind in the conference race, and that has to take some precedent.  Now, the selection committee’s criteria is super-fuzzy, but I have to think that conference supremacy matters.  As such, the Mississippi schools still lead the charge here.

Of course, this is obvious stuff.  What is interesting though is that, while the SEC West and the Big XII have taken turns beating themselves up, (the Pac-12 too) the ACC and Big Ten suddenly have some opportunities to sneak into one of the Final Four spots.  In fact, once Florida State dispatched Notre Dame in the clear Game of the Year to date, the Big Ten suddenly had something to brag about.

As far as the one-man playoff selection committee?

  • The final 4: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Michigan State and Florida State.  The two SEC teams are obvious here.  As for why the #5 and #10 teams on the list get the nod?  The committee is expected to weigh conference supremacy some, so I will too.  That is certainly part of it.  But it is also worth looking at the ranking scores, not just the ordinal ranks.  Once we get out of the top 4, you basically have 10 teams separate by 5 percent.  This is not a large gap, and with the limited datasets you have to make some leaps.  I take Michigan State as the Big Ten leader and highest rated non SEC team, and Florida State by virtue of leading its conference, still being unbeaten and a head to head result over #9.  If you wanted to choose TCU or Baylor or even Ohio State, you would not be crazy.
  • Other automatic qualifiers:  TCU from the Big 12, USC from the Pac 12, Marshall from “everybody else”.  With Florida State in the national semifinals, the Orange Bowl by fiat takes Clemson, the next highest ranked ACC team.  The opponent is the highest rated SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame opponent so hooray for Alabama.
  • This leaves just three more spots.  Here Auburns get in with monstrous strength ratings.  Baylor and Georgia get the other two slots.  This leaves us with a Cotton Bowl which might take 5 hours to play.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.
    • Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss v Florida State
    • Rose Bowl: Mississippi State v Michigan State
    • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Alabama
    • Cotton Bowl: Baylor v Auburn  
    • Peach Bowl: Georgia v Marshall
    • Fiesta Bowl: TCU v USC

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 6 1 0.883 (5) 1 (1) 0.941
2 Ole Miss 7 0 0.984 (2) 0.89 (3) 0.937
3 Mississippi State 6 0 1 (1) 0.832 (4) 0.916
4 Auburn 5 1 0.923 (3) 0.891 (2) 0.907
5 Michigan State 6 1 0.769 (12) 0.79 (8) 0.779
6 TCU 5 1 0.776 (11) 0.776 (10) 0.776
7 Georgia 6 1 0.815 (7) 0.736 (13) 0.776
8 Baylor 6 1 0.732 (17) 0.819 (5) 0.775
9 Notre Dame 6 1 0.843 (6) 0.687 (16) 0.765
10 Florida State 7 0 0.916 (4) 0.585 (34) 0.75
11 LSU 6 2 0.695 (25) 0.79 (7) 0.743
12 Ohio State 5 1 0.685 (29) 0.799 (6) 0.742
13 Clemson 5 2 0.736 (16) 0.742 (11) 0.739
14 Marshall 7 0 0.777 (9) 0.683 (18) 0.73
15 Nebraska 6 1 0.768 (13) 0.685 (17) 0.726
16 West Virginia 5 2 0.643 (31) 0.784 (9) 0.714
17 Louisville 6 2 0.692 (28) 0.726 (14) 0.709
18 Oregon 6 1 0.776 (10) 0.631 (27) 0.704
19 Oklahoma 5 2 0.696 (24) 0.661 (21) 0.679
20 USC 5 2 0.694 (26) 0.655 (22) 0.674
21 Boise State 5 2 0.693 (27) 0.654 (23) 0.674
22 Arizona State 5 1 0.716 (18) 0.591 (31) 0.653
23 UCLA 5 2 0.713 (20) 0.589 (32) 0.651
24 Kansas State 5 1 0.716 (19) 0.581 (35) 0.648
25 Arizona 5 1 0.749 (15) 0.533 (44) 0.641
26 Colorado State 6 1 0.757 (14) 0.521 (46) 0.639
27 Texas A&M 5 3 0.678 (30) 0.586 (33) 0.632
28 Minnesota 6 1 0.79 (8) 0.434 (65) 0.612
29 Duke 6 1 0.7 (23) 0.505 (49) 0.603
30 East Carolina 5 1 0.7 (22) 0.503 (52) 0.602
31 Virginia Tech 4 3 0.511 (52) 0.669 (19) 0.59
32 Wisconsin 4 2 0.514 (51) 0.664 (20) 0.589
33 Arkansas 3 4 0.439 (68) 0.738 (12) 0.589
34 Pittsburgh 4 3 0.462 (63) 0.71 (15) 0.586
35 Penn State 4 2 0.566 (40) 0.606 (29) 0.586
36 Miami-FL 4 3 0.539 (46) 0.626 (28) 0.583
37 Florida 3 3 0.51 (54) 0.653 (24) 0.582
38 Iowa 5 2 0.555 (43) 0.6 (30) 0.578
39 Stanford 4 3 0.501 (56) 0.639 (25) 0.57
40 Georgia Tech 5 2 0.617 (34) 0.512 (47) 0.565
41 Arkansas State 4 2 0.563 (41) 0.546 (40) 0.554
42 Boston College 4 3 0.465 (62) 0.634 (26) 0.549
43 Maryland 5 2 0.605 (36) 0.482 (57) 0.543
44 Utah 5 1 0.704 (21) 0.377 (87) 0.54
45 Kentucky 5 2 0.625 (32) 0.456 (61) 0.54
46 Memphis 3 3 0.51 (55) 0.569 (36) 0.539
47 Rutgers 5 2 0.591 (37) 0.457 (60) 0.524
48 Georgia Southern 5 2 0.542 (45) 0.504 (50) 0.523
49 Virginia 4 3 0.461 (64) 0.557 (38) 0.509
50 Missouri 5 2 0.624 (33) 0.389 (80) 0.507
51 South Carolina 4 3 0.499 (57) 0.511 (48) 0.505
52 BYU 4 3 0.472 (61) 0.53 (45) 0.501
53 Oklahoma State 5 2 0.611 (35) 0.389 (81) 0.5
54 Oregon State 4 2 0.536 (47) 0.461 (59) 0.498
55 Air Force 5 2 0.581 (38) 0.406 (73) 0.494
56 Nevada 4 3 0.534 (48) 0.449 (62) 0.492
57 MTSU 5 3 0.574 (39) 0.408 (72) 0.491
58 Tennessee 3 4 0.437 (69) 0.54 (43) 0.489
59 UCF 4 2 0.557 (42) 0.412 (71) 0.485
60 UAB 4 3 0.417 (76) 0.544 (42) 0.48
61 NC State 4 4 0.446 (65) 0.501 (53) 0.473
62 Houston 4 3 0.379 (82) 0.559 (37) 0.469
63 California 4 3 0.516 (50) 0.421 (67) 0.468
64 Louisiana Tech 4 3 0.511 (53) 0.42 (68) 0.465
65 Washington 5 2 0.553 (44) 0.376 (88) 0.465
66 South Alabama 4 2 0.476 (59) 0.446 (63) 0.461
67 Northwestern 3 4 0.371 (84) 0.549 (39) 0.46
68 San Jose State 3 3 0.474 (60) 0.437 (64) 0.456
69 Utah State 4 3 0.52 (49) 0.391 (77) 0.456
70 North Carolina 3 4 0.402 (78) 0.493 (54) 0.448
71 Michigan 3 4 0.348 (91) 0.546 (41) 0.447
72 Northern Illinois 5 2 0.478 (58) 0.401 (76) 0.439
73 Akron 4 3 0.426 (72) 0.432 (66) 0.429
74 Texas 3 4 0.353 (90) 0.504 (51) 0.429
75 Rice 3 3 0.443 (67) 0.402 (75) 0.423
76 LA-Lafayette 3 3 0.422 (74) 0.417 (69) 0.42
77 Western Michigan 4 3 0.443 (66) 0.39 (79) 0.417
78 Temple 4 2 0.425 (73) 0.404 (74) 0.414
79 Syracuse 3 4 0.406 (77) 0.416 (70) 0.411
80 Navy 3 4 0.329 (94) 0.492 (55) 0.411
81 Cincinnati 3 3 0.421 (75) 0.391 (78) 0.406
82 Washington State 2 5 0.303 (97) 0.491 (56) 0.397
83 San Diego State 4 3 0.429 (70) 0.343 (92) 0.386
84 Colorado 2 5 0.271 (101) 0.477 (58) 0.374
85 Texas Tech 3 4 0.366 (86) 0.379 (86) 0.373
86 Central Michigan 4 4 0.336 (92) 0.388 (82) 0.362
87 Toledo 4 3 0.388 (80) 0.334 (94) 0.361
88 Indiana 3 4 0.353 (89) 0.352 (91) 0.353
89 Fresno State 3 5 0.361 (88) 0.34 (93) 0.351
90 Bowling Green 5 3 0.429 (71) 0.272 (107) 0.35
91 LA-Monroe 3 3 0.379 (81) 0.315 (99) 0.347
92 Western Kentucky 2 4 0.301 (98) 0.382 (85) 0.341
93 Iowa State 2 5 0.272 (100) 0.384 (84) 0.328
94 Illinois 3 4 0.296 (99) 0.358 (90) 0.327
95 Purdue 3 5 0.317 (96) 0.331 (95) 0.324
96 Ohio 4 4 0.371 (83) 0.248 (111) 0.31
97 FIU 3 5 0.228 (105) 0.386 (83) 0.307
98 Southern Miss 3 4 0.39 (79) 0.218 (117) 0.304
99 UTEP 3 3 0.369 (85) 0.238 (113) 0.303
100 Old Dominion 3 4 0.33 (93) 0.276 (105) 0.303
101 Florida Atlantic 3 4 0.362 (87) 0.234 (115) 0.298
102 Texas State 3 3 0.247 (104) 0.326 (96) 0.287
103 UTSA 2 5 0.26 (103) 0.306 (101) 0.283
104 Wyoming 3 4 0.328 (95) 0.2 (120) 0.264
105 South Florida 3 4 0.262 (102) 0.235 (114) 0.249
106 Appalachian State 2 5 0.153 (114) 0.315 (98) 0.234
107 Tulane 2 5 0.168 (111) 0.297 (102) 0.232
108 Buffalo 3 4 0.153 (113) 0.307 (100) 0.23
109 New Mexico 2 5 0.195 (108) 0.255 (108) 0.225
110 Kansas 2 5 0.193 (109) 0.239 (112) 0.216
111 Hawaii 2 5 0.141 (115) 0.278 (104) 0.209
112 Ball State 2 5 0.115 (117) 0.273 (106) 0.194
113 Massachusetts 2 6 0.125 (116) 0.252 (110) 0.188
114 Idaho 1 6 0 (129) 0.373 (89) 0.187
115 UNLV 2 5 0.182 (110) 0.165 (121) 0.174
116 Tulsa 1 6 0.041 (122) 0.29 (103) 0.165
117 Miami-OH 1 7 0.014 (127) 0.316 (97) 0.165
118 New Mexico State 2 6 0.103 (120) 0.222 (116) 0.163
119 Wake Forest 2 5 0.205 (107) 0.111 (125) 0.158
120 Vanderbilt 2 5 0.206 (106) 0.094 (126) 0.15
121 Georgia State 1 6 0.014 (126) 0.252 (109) 0.133
122 North Texas 2 5 0.107 (119) 0.153 (123) 0.13
123 Kent State 1 6 0.036 (124) 0.212 (118) 0.124
124 Connecticut 1 5 0.03 (125) 0.206 (119) 0.118
125 Army 2 5 0.072 (121) 0.154 (122) 0.113
126 Eastern Michigan 2 5 0.168 (112) 0.01 (128) 0.089
127 Troy 1 6 0.005 (128) 0.125 (124) 0.065
128 Non FBS 8 92 0.108 (118) 0.013 (127) 0.06
129 SMU 0 6 0.04 (123) 0 (129) 0.02

Top 5 offenses by Net DSR:
1. Oregon
2. Georgia Tech
3. Auburn
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama

Top 5 defenses by Net DSR
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Louisville
4. Virginia Tech
5. Stanford

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