2014 College Football – Week 11 – An Inedible Nut

So, what happened.  I ranted quite a bit about how the committee’s selection is not an improvement over the BCS, or whatever the hell it is that I do.  That still is very much the case.  Of course since we last talked, Auburn lost and LSU lost, but of course losses in the midst of the SEC West just have not shown the impact that losses in other conferences have shown.  Honestly there is no actually bad SEC West defeat.

But a home loss to Ohio State?  Oh, Sparty.  The loss to Ohio State moves them out of the lead in the Big Ten.  While metrically they are not in terrible shape – it is impossible to justly give them the nod over many other more deserving teams.

  • The final 4: Mississippi State, Alabama,  Baylor and Ohio State.  With Ole Miss going down, this sets us free to pick Alabama as the wild card.  Looking at the TotalRank, TCU, Baylor and Ohio State are the clear 3 teams to draw from (although if you still respect FSU for being unbeaten – unimpressively against an easier schedule maybe).  Baylor gets the nod with the head to head win over TCU while the Buckeyes have just been a lot more impressive than Florida State.  Both the Buckeyes and Oregon have ghastly home losses to live down (the Buckeyes looks much worse certainly).  The rub is that the Buckeyes have played better generally since and their demolition of a very good Michigan State team on the road is better than that.
  • Other automatic qualifiers:  Oregon from the Pac 12, Florida State from the ACC, Marshall from “everybody else”.  Auburn as the highest ranked of (SEC, Notre Dame, Big Ten) gives them the Orange Bowl spot.
  • This leaves just four more spots.  Here, this gets Ole Miss, TCU, Michigan State and Georgia as the other teams to get to 12.  The bowl matchups come up pretty easily here, although TCU goes to the Fiesta Bowl to avoid the Sparty-Duck rematch.
  • BOWL PROJECTIONS.
    • Sugar Bowl: Mississippi State v Ohio State
    • Rose Bowl: Alabama v Baylor
    • Orange Bowl: Florida State v Auburn
    • Cotton Bowl: Michigan State v Ole Miss  
    • Peach Bowl: Georgia v Marshall
    • Fiesta Bowl: TCU v Oregon

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 8 1 0.975 (2) 1 (1) 0.987
2 Auburn 7 2 0.881 (6) 0.893 (4) 0.887
3 Ole Miss 8 2 0.866 (8) 0.899 (3) 0.882
4 Mississippi State 9 0 1 (1) 0.762 (14) 0.881
5 TCU 8 1 0.883 (5) 0.874 (5) 0.879
6 Baylor 8 1 0.822 (13) 0.91 (2) 0.866
7 Ohio State 8 1 0.849 (9) 0.858 (8) 0.854
8 Florida State 9 0 0.965 (3) 0.647 (29) 0.806
9 Oregon 9 1 0.891 (4) 0.71 (18) 0.801
10 Michigan State 7 2 0.74 (26) 0.858 (7) 0.799
11 Georgia 7 2 0.791 (19) 0.795 (11) 0.793
12 LSU 7 3 0.713 (28) 0.871 (6) 0.792
13 Wisconsin 7 2 0.741 (25) 0.821 (9) 0.781
14 Clemson 7 2 0.793 (18) 0.766 (12) 0.779
15 Nebraska 8 1 0.845 (10) 0.707 (20) 0.776
16 Notre Dame 7 2 0.839 (12) 0.693 (22) 0.766
17 Boise State 7 2 0.798 (17) 0.723 (17) 0.761
18 Marshall 9 0 0.814 (15) 0.705 (21) 0.76
19 Arizona State 8 1 0.873 (7) 0.629 (32) 0.751
20 UCLA 8 2 0.845 (11) 0.611 (33) 0.728
21 Louisville 7 3 0.689 (31) 0.763 (13) 0.726
22 Georgia Tech 8 2 0.771 (20) 0.672 (25) 0.722
23 Miami-FL 6 3 0.717 (27) 0.727 (16) 0.722
24 Kansas State 7 2 0.756 (22) 0.66 (28) 0.708
25 Oklahoma 6 3 0.699 (29) 0.71 (19) 0.705
26 Colorado State 9 1 0.822 (14) 0.586 (38) 0.704
27 West Virginia 6 4 0.625 (42) 0.752 (15) 0.689
28 Duke 8 1 0.812 (16) 0.565 (48) 0.688
29 Texas A&M 7 3 0.755 (23) 0.602 (35) 0.679
30 Arizona 7 2 0.77 (21) 0.584 (40) 0.677
31 Florida 5 3 0.661 (35) 0.676 (24) 0.668
32 USC 6 3 0.686 (32) 0.63 (31) 0.658
33 Arkansas 4 5 0.499 (65) 0.803 (10) 0.651
34 Minnesota 7 2 0.751 (24) 0.512 (57) 0.632
35 Louisiana Tech 7 3 0.66 (36) 0.567 (46) 0.613
36 Stanford 5 4 0.557 (51) 0.665 (27) 0.611
37 Georgia Southern 8 2 0.643 (38) 0.579 (43) 0.611
38 Memphis 6 3 0.632 (40) 0.58 (42) 0.606
39 East Carolina 6 2 0.627 (41) 0.581 (41) 0.604
40 Air Force 7 2 0.671 (34) 0.521 (54) 0.596
41 Arkansas State 6 3 0.603 (43) 0.586 (39) 0.595
42 BYU 5 4 0.57 (49) 0.59 (36) 0.58
43 Iowa 6 3 0.579 (48) 0.578 (44) 0.579
44 Missouri 7 2 0.692 (30) 0.464 (70) 0.578
45 LA-Lafayette 6 3 0.596 (44) 0.556 (50) 0.576
46 Boston College 6 4 0.535 (58) 0.605 (34) 0.57
47 Penn State 5 4 0.506 (63) 0.63 (30) 0.568
48 Virginia Tech 4 5 0.446 (74) 0.667 (26) 0.557
49 Tennessee 4 5 0.518 (60) 0.59 (37) 0.554
50 Maryland 6 3 0.641 (39) 0.455 (73) 0.548
51 Utah State 7 3 0.655 (37) 0.435 (80) 0.545
52 Cincinnati 5 3 0.58 (47) 0.506 (58) 0.543
53 Utah 6 3 0.674 (33) 0.409 (83) 0.542
54 Nevada 5 3 0.586 (45) 0.494 (62) 0.54
55 Pittsburgh 4 5 0.378 (85) 0.686 (23) 0.532
56 UCF 5 3 0.537 (56) 0.525 (53) 0.531
57 Michigan 5 5 0.483 (67) 0.557 (49) 0.52
58 Texas 5 5 0.505 (64) 0.53 (51) 0.518
59 Western Michigan 6 3 0.556 (52) 0.473 (67) 0.514
60 California 5 4 0.54 (55) 0.483 (65) 0.512
61 Northern Illinois 7 2 0.582 (46) 0.437 (78) 0.509
62 Rice 6 3 0.553 (53) 0.465 (68) 0.509
63 Central Michigan 6 4 0.467 (71) 0.518 (56) 0.493
64 South Carolina 4 5 0.451 (72) 0.529 (52) 0.49
65 Rutgers 5 4 0.541 (54) 0.437 (79) 0.489
66 North Carolina 4 5 0.482 (68) 0.492 (64) 0.487
67 Houston 5 4 0.399 (82) 0.571 (45) 0.485
68 NC State 5 5 0.495 (66) 0.464 (71) 0.479
69 Washington 6 4 0.561 (50) 0.391 (88) 0.476
70 Kentucky 5 5 0.473 (69) 0.454 (74) 0.463
71 Navy 4 5 0.427 (76) 0.498 (60) 0.463
72 Virginia 4 6 0.407 (81) 0.519 (55) 0.463
73 Toledo 6 3 0.515 (61) 0.406 (84) 0.461
74 MTSU 5 4 0.515 (62) 0.403 (85) 0.459
75 South Alabama 5 4 0.451 (73) 0.448 (75) 0.449
76 Oklahoma State 5 4 0.522 (59) 0.37 (92) 0.446
77 Northwestern 3 6 0.321 (93) 0.566 (47) 0.443
78 UTEP 5 4 0.469 (70) 0.414 (82) 0.442
79 San Jose State 3 5 0.384 (84) 0.498 (61) 0.441
80 UAB 5 5 0.415 (78) 0.464 (69) 0.44
81 Bowling Green 6 3 0.535 (57) 0.331 (100) 0.433
82 Washington State 3 7 0.351 (90) 0.503 (59) 0.427
83 Illinois 4 5 0.442 (75) 0.393 (86) 0.418
84 Texas State 5 4 0.39 (83) 0.44 (76) 0.415
85 Temple 5 4 0.419 (77) 0.388 (89) 0.403
86 Syracuse 3 7 0.354 (89) 0.429 (81) 0.391
87 San Diego State 5 4 0.413 (79) 0.354 (96) 0.384
88 Western Kentucky 4 5 0.412 (80) 0.355 (94) 0.383
89 Akron 4 5 0.32 (94) 0.439 (77) 0.38
90 Oregon State 4 5 0.359 (88) 0.393 (87) 0.376
91 Appalachian State 4 5 0.267 (102) 0.473 (66) 0.37
92 Colorado 2 8 0.245 (103) 0.494 (63) 0.37
93 Ohio 5 5 0.376 (86) 0.354 (97) 0.365
94 Texas Tech 3 6 0.339 (91) 0.383 (90) 0.361
95 Wyoming 4 6 0.375 (87) 0.326 (102) 0.351
96 Purdue 3 7 0.325 (92) 0.357 (93) 0.341
97 Tulane 3 6 0.282 (100) 0.376 (91) 0.329
98 Indiana 3 6 0.308 (96) 0.33 (101) 0.319
99 Fresno State 3 6 0.31 (95) 0.308 (104) 0.309
100 LA-Monroe 3 6 0.237 (107) 0.355 (95) 0.296
101 Old Dominion 4 6 0.305 (97) 0.287 (108) 0.296
102 Southern Miss 3 7 0.303 (98) 0.274 (112) 0.288
103 New Mexico 3 6 0.283 (99) 0.272 (114) 0.278
104 Kansas 3 6 0.278 (101) 0.274 (113) 0.276
105 Iowa State 2 7 0.243 (105) 0.308 (105) 0.276
106 Ball State 3 6 0.193 (110) 0.343 (99) 0.268
107 FIU 3 7 0.176 (113) 0.35 (98) 0.263
108 Florida Atlantic 3 7 0.237 (106) 0.284 (109) 0.261
109 Idaho 1 8 0.006 (128) 0.456 (72) 0.231
110 North Texas 3 6 0.2 (109) 0.255 (116) 0.227
111 South Florida 3 6 0.234 (108) 0.209 (121) 0.222
112 Tulsa 2 7 0.141 (116) 0.289 (107) 0.215
113 Buffalo 3 6 0.143 (115) 0.282 (111) 0.212
114 Massachusetts 2 7 0.116 (119) 0.299 (106) 0.208
115 Hawaii 2 7 0.132 (117) 0.282 (110) 0.207
116 UTSA 2 7 0.187 (111) 0.221 (119) 0.204
117 Vanderbilt 3 7 0.244 (104) 0.156 (125) 0.2
118 Miami-OH 2 8 0.068 (125) 0.316 (103) 0.192
119 Wake Forest 2 7 0.184 (112) 0.178 (123) 0.181
120 New Mexico State 2 8 0.089 (123) 0.267 (115) 0.178
121 Army 3 6 0.168 (114) 0.182 (122) 0.175
122 Connecticut 2 7 0.119 (118) 0.228 (118) 0.174
123 UNLV 2 8 0.108 (121) 0.213 (120) 0.161
124 Kent State 1 8 0.018 (127) 0.251 (117) 0.135
125 Troy 2 8 0.072 (124) 0.136 (126) 0.104
126 Georgia State 1 9 0 (129) 0.161 (124) 0.08
127 Non FBS 8 94 0.11 (120) 0.012 (128) 0.061
128 Eastern Michigan 2 7 0.098 (122) 0 (129) 0.049
129 SMU 0 8 0.039 (126) 0.048 (127) 0.044
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