2014 College Football – Final Rankings and Thoughts

Well, there you go: Alabama-Ohio State and Oregon-Florida State is the first true National Semifinal. Three cartoonishly loathsome programs (to a degree or another) and one actually loathsome one (hello, Jameis Winston and his gutless buddies and coach and Attorney General).  After all, it’s one thing to root against LeBron James for some TV show – Kirk Herbstreit blathering about how FSU has transcended the distraction of a rape hearing is decidedly another.  Oregon is the clear people’s champ here – if nothing else because they are the best dressed.  Anyway, other thoughts:

  • One of the silliest things about today’s fanfare is that the season actually has not ended.  There is Army-Navy next week, and if the committee were serious about its job, that game does matter since it is one of Ohio State’s schedule data points.  This leads to another matter.
  • Did this committee actually study all 129 FBS schools?  This is one of the questions one had about this job as opposed to the NCAA Basketball Selection Committee.  After all, Northern Illinois and Troy are not identical teams.  I would expect the basketball selection committee to know about mid-majors – it is part of the gig.  Here, the mid-majors did not seem to figure into calculations.  Florida State lined up an FCS team and did not get dinged – neither did Oregon.
  • The Final Four that was chosen was entirely defensible.  The thought process was not.  If TCU was #3 last week, nothing happened to drop them to #6.  If anything, Ohio State’s vivisection of Wisconsin should have jeopardized #4 Florida State, who had to recover an onside kick to beat a good Georgia Tech team.
  • When Jeff Long pointed out the Big XII’s lack of a championship game as a problem, that seriously strained the credibility of the committee.  The conferences that have championship games needed them – because the schedules were asymmetric.  The Big XII played a true round robin – there was no need to agonize over the result.  If you care about conference championships, you can care about it either way.  That the committee needed an additional datapoint is hogwash.
  • I read a lot about the Big XII pointing out that they need a championship game to avoid these issues.  That is stupid – championship games are usually money losers and the selection committee does not have it as a hard and fast rule.
  • At the end of the day though, this is a television program, and so having geographic diversity makes sense.  The “right” four teams can mean lots of things after all.

A true tournament would be a 16-teamer of course.  How would it look this year?  We’ll use the rankings below because what the hell – at least I tried harder than Condi did.

Automatic Bids:

  • SEC (Alabama – #1)
  • Big Ten (Ohio State – #2)
  • Big XII (Baylor – #3, get the automatic bid by virtue of head to head)
  • Pac-12 (Oregon – #6)
  • ACC (Florida State – #8)
  • Mountain West (Boise State – #10)
  • Conference USA (Marshall – #12)
  • American (Cincinnati – #27, 3 way tie broken by rank)
  • Mid-American (Northern Illinois – #33)
  • Sun Belt (Georgia Southern – #36)

At Large Bids: TCU (#4), Michigan State (#5), Ole Miss (#7), Mississippi State (#9), Wisconsin (#11), Georgia Tech (#15 – beat #14 and #13, actual scores close and why not).

Brackets – we flip flop Boise State and Wisconsin to avoid the rematch in Round 1:

  • Alabama (1) v Georgia Southern (16)
  • Florida State (8) v Mississippi State (9)
  • TCU (4) v Georgia Tech (13)
  • Michigan State (5) v Marshall (12)
  • Ohio State (2) v Northern Illinois (15)
  • Ole Miss (7) v Wisconsin (10)
  • Baylor (3) v Cincinnati (14)
  • Oregon (6) v Boise State (11)

 

Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team W L RPI Scale DSR Scale TotalRank
1 Alabama 12 1 0.953 (2) 1 (1) 0.976
2 Ohio State 12 1 0.922 (3) 0.923 (2) 0.923
3 Baylor 11 1 0.885 (6) 0.898 (4) 0.892
4 TCU 11 1 0.897 (5) 0.884 (6) 0.89
5 Michigan State 10 2 0.806 (10) 0.92 (3) 0.863
6 Oregon 12 1 0.908 (4) 0.809 (11) 0.859
7 Ole Miss 9 3 0.788 (13) 0.887 (5) 0.838
8 Florida State 13 0 1 (1) 0.663 (29) 0.831
9 Mississippi State 10 2 0.849 (8) 0.806 (12) 0.828
10 Boise State 11 2 0.859 (7) 0.785 (15) 0.822
11 Wisconsin 10 3 0.763 (16) 0.822 (10) 0.792
12 Marshall 12 1 0.832 (9) 0.736 (19) 0.784
13 Georgia 9 3 0.721 (24) 0.824 (8) 0.773
14 Clemson 9 3 0.76 (17) 0.783 (16) 0.772
15 Georgia Tech 10 3 0.784 (14) 0.751 (17) 0.768
16 Louisville 9 3 0.733 (22) 0.79 (14) 0.762
17 Auburn 8 4 0.706 (26) 0.793 (13) 0.75
18 LSU 8 4 0.655 (34) 0.829 (7) 0.742
19 Colorado State 10 2 0.802 (11) 0.615 (39) 0.708
20 Kansas State 9 3 0.739 (21) 0.676 (24) 0.707
21 UCLA 9 3 0.76 (18) 0.636 (37) 0.698
22 Arizona 11 3 0.8 (12) 0.571 (49) 0.686
23 Nebraska 9 3 0.725 (23) 0.646 (34) 0.685
24 Oklahoma 8 4 0.637 (37) 0.72 (20) 0.679
25 Arizona State 9 3 0.742 (19) 0.604 (41) 0.673
26 Arkansas 6 6 0.52 (58) 0.823 (9) 0.671
27 Cincinnati 9 3 0.713 (25) 0.625 (38) 0.669
28 USC 8 4 0.681 (30) 0.647 (32) 0.664
29 West Virginia 7 5 0.572 (47) 0.75 (18) 0.661
30 UCF 9 3 0.681 (31) 0.639 (35) 0.66
31 BYU 8 4 0.623 (39) 0.678 (23) 0.65
32 Missouri 10 3 0.74 (20) 0.534 (60) 0.637
33 Northern Illinois 11 2 0.763 (15) 0.51 (65) 0.636
34 Stanford 7 5 0.582 (45) 0.688 (22) 0.635
35 Memphis 9 3 0.688 (29) 0.582 (46) 0.635
36 Georgia Southern 9 3 0.691 (27) 0.577 (47) 0.634
37 East Carolina 8 4 0.587 (43) 0.667 (27) 0.627
38 Louisiana Tech 8 5 0.624 (38) 0.613 (40) 0.619
39 Air Force 8 3 0.69 (28) 0.544 (56) 0.617
40 Minnesota 8 4 0.661 (33) 0.558 (53) 0.609
41 Boston College 7 5 0.549 (54) 0.669 (26) 0.609
42 Notre Dame 7 5 0.571 (48) 0.637 (36) 0.604
43 Miami-FL 6 6 0.506 (62) 0.672 (25) 0.589
44 Duke 9 3 0.648 (36) 0.526 (62) 0.587
45 Florida 6 5 0.527 (55) 0.646 (33) 0.586
46 Iowa 7 5 0.512 (60) 0.658 (31) 0.585
47 Utah State 9 4 0.675 (32) 0.482 (72) 0.579
48 Texas A&M 7 5 0.585 (44) 0.567 (51) 0.576
49 Western Michigan 8 4 0.588 (42) 0.553 (54) 0.571
50 Virginia Tech 6 6 0.477 (71) 0.659 (30) 0.568
51 Pittsburgh 6 6 0.435 (81) 0.693 (21) 0.564
52 LA-Lafayette 8 4 0.6 (41) 0.525 (63) 0.562
53 Penn State 6 6 0.458 (77) 0.663 (28) 0.561
54 Toledo 8 4 0.615 (40) 0.493 (70) 0.554
55 NC State 7 5 0.56 (51) 0.539 (59) 0.549
56 Utah 8 4 0.649 (35) 0.444 (81) 0.546
57 Tennessee 6 6 0.493 (65) 0.594 (44) 0.544
58 Navy 6 5 0.525 (57) 0.551 (55) 0.538
59 Arkansas State 7 5 0.498 (64) 0.577 (48) 0.537
60 Houston 7 5 0.474 (73) 0.595 (43) 0.534
61 Appalachian State 7 5 0.463 (75) 0.596 (42) 0.529
62 Texas 6 6 0.489 (66) 0.569 (50) 0.529
63 Western Kentucky 7 5 0.563 (50) 0.494 (69) 0.529
64 South Carolina 6 6 0.474 (72) 0.56 (52) 0.517
65 North Carolina 6 6 0.498 (63) 0.533 (61) 0.515
66 Central Michigan 7 5 0.482 (68) 0.544 (57) 0.513
67 Rice 7 5 0.558 (53) 0.464 (74) 0.511
68 Washington 8 5 0.564 (49) 0.453 (79) 0.508
69 Maryland 7 5 0.559 (52) 0.448 (80) 0.504
70 San Diego State 7 5 0.512 (59) 0.484 (71) 0.498
71 Rutgers 7 5 0.575 (46) 0.413 (90) 0.494
72 UTEP 7 5 0.526 (56) 0.457 (77) 0.491
73 Michigan 5 7 0.394 (85) 0.587 (45) 0.49
74 Nevada 6 5 0.506 (61) 0.456 (78) 0.481
75 UAB 6 6 0.438 (78) 0.511 (64) 0.475
76 Texas State 7 5 0.47 (74) 0.471 (73) 0.471
77 Virginia 5 7 0.391 (87) 0.539 (58) 0.465
78 MTSU 6 6 0.463 (76) 0.441 (82) 0.452
79 Northwestern 5 7 0.388 (88) 0.507 (67) 0.448
80 South Alabama 6 6 0.438 (79) 0.457 (76) 0.447
81 California 5 7 0.392 (86) 0.501 (68) 0.447
82 Illinois 6 6 0.479 (69) 0.407 (92) 0.443
83 Oklahoma State 6 6 0.483 (67) 0.354 (99) 0.418
84 Temple 6 6 0.434 (82) 0.389 (94) 0.411
85 Fresno State 5 7 0.4 (84) 0.421 (84) 0.411
86 Ohio 6 6 0.422 (83) 0.39 (93) 0.406
87 Old Dominion 6 6 0.438 (80) 0.367 (98) 0.402
88 Kentucky 5 7 0.368 (89) 0.42 (86) 0.394
89 Oregon State 5 7 0.364 (90) 0.42 (85) 0.392
90 Bowling Green 7 6 0.479 (70) 0.3 (110) 0.389
91 Washington State 3 9 0.258 (101) 0.507 (66) 0.383
92 Texas Tech 4 8 0.312 (94) 0.424 (83) 0.368
93 Buffalo 5 6 0.314 (93) 0.407 (91) 0.36
94 Akron 5 7 0.296 (97) 0.418 (88) 0.357
95 Ball State 5 7 0.325 (91) 0.33 (103) 0.327
96 Wyoming 4 8 0.3 (95) 0.341 (101) 0.321
97 Colorado 2 10 0.181 (114) 0.458 (75) 0.32
98 LA-Monroe 4 8 0.261 (100) 0.375 (96) 0.318
99 San Jose State 3 8 0.221 (106) 0.415 (89) 0.318
100 Indiana 4 8 0.298 (96) 0.325 (105) 0.312
101 Syracuse 3 9 0.255 (102) 0.368 (97) 0.312
102 Tulane 3 9 0.208 (109) 0.381 (95) 0.295
103 New Mexico 4 8 0.315 (92) 0.267 (113) 0.291
104 FIU 4 8 0.218 (107) 0.336 (102) 0.277
105 Purdue 3 9 0.217 (108) 0.311 (107) 0.264
106 South Florida 4 8 0.271 (98) 0.243 (118) 0.257
107 Hawaii 4 8 0.237 (103) 0.273 (111) 0.255
108 Southern Miss 3 9 0.223 (105) 0.271 (112) 0.247
109 UTSA 4 8 0.264 (99) 0.218 (120) 0.241
110 Kansas 3 9 0.208 (110) 0.248 (116) 0.228
111 Iowa State 2 10 0.153 (116) 0.301 (109) 0.227
112 Florida Atlantic 3 9 0.185 (113) 0.263 (114) 0.224
113 Massachusetts 3 9 0.123 (118) 0.322 (106) 0.222
114 North Texas 4 8 0.191 (112) 0.247 (117) 0.219
115 Miami-OH 2 10 0.08 (123) 0.351 (100) 0.215
116 Idaho 1 10 0 (129) 0.42 (87) 0.21
117 Tulsa 2 10 0.092 (120) 0.327 (104) 0.209
118 Army 4 7 0.232 (104) 0.181 (123) 0.206
119 Wake Forest 3 9 0.201 (111) 0.211 (121) 0.206
120 Kent State 2 9 0.095 (119) 0.305 (108) 0.2
121 Vanderbilt 3 9 0.178 (115) 0.164 (125) 0.171
122 Troy 3 9 0.15 (117) 0.186 (122) 0.168
123 New Mexico State 2 10 0.061 (127) 0.262 (115) 0.162
124 UNLV 2 11 0.089 (122) 0.222 (119) 0.155
125 Connecticut 2 10 0.077 (124) 0.152 (126) 0.114
126 Georgia State 1 11 0.009 (128) 0.168 (124) 0.088
127 Eastern Michigan 2 10 0.091 (121) 0.032 (127) 0.062
128 SMU 1 11 0.077 (125) 0 (129) 0.038
129 Non FBS 8 100 0.071 (126) 0.003 (128) 0.037
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