2015 Fake NASCAR Standings

Quick explanation:

  • I don’t care that much about NASCAR, but the attempts to revise the Chase constantly has continually amused me.  As such, I envisioned a better, simpler way to do what the sport wants.  To wit:
    • Go back to the old points system, with two changes.  1) 200 points for a win, instead of 185.  But the rest – 170 for 2nd, 165 for 3rd, down to 106, 103, 100 for 19th to 21st.  2) no points for 22nd or worse.  Anybody can get bonus points though (leading a lap, leading most laps).  This prioritizes good results and not just taking the grid.
    • Double point for the Daytona 500.  The most prestigious race should count more.
    • Flip the Chase.  After 26 races, the Top 20 drivers qualify for Miami.  Everybody else goes to zero.  The Chase accumulates points and then drivers 21 to 25 qualify for Miami as well. This results in a field of no fewer than 25.  Maybe cap the grid at 30 (using pre-Chase standings as a wild card tiebreaker if need be).
    • Make Miami only for the finalists.  Use the PGA TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP seeding – which means that only the Top 5 drivers can win the Cup without help.  It doesn’t make sense for every driver driving in the playoffs not to have a chance to win everything.  The last rated driver still has terrible odds (basically needs the field to finish 25-24-23-22-…-1) to win.  But it is a chance!
    • I did something similar last year – but running this with last year’s data Kevin Harvick still won the cup (he won Miami of course)

Anyway – the results after Race 25.  Kyle Larson gets into the last position:

Rnk Driver PTS WINS
1 Kevin Harvick 3944 2
2 Joey Logano 3745 3
3 Dale Earnhardt Jr 3512 2
4 Jimmie Johnson 3340 4
5 Brad Keselowski 3186 1
6 Martin Truex Jr 3160 1
7 Kurt Busch 2972 2
8 Ryan Newman 2860 0
9 Matt Kenseth 2810 3
10 Jamie McMurray 2746 0
11 Denny Hamlin 2714 1
12 Jeff Gordon 2709 0
13 Carl Edwards 2668 2
14 Aric Almirola 2535 0
15 Kasey Kahne 2487 0
16 Clint Bowyer 2395 0
17 Paul Menard 2323 0
18 Greg Biffle 1972 0
19 Austin Dillon 1962 0
20 Kyle Busch 1928 4
21 Kyle Larson 1879 0
22 Tony Stewart 1623 0
23 David Ragan 1621 0
24 AJ Allmendinger 1466 0
25 Casey Mears 1456 0
26 Danica Patrick 1390 0
27 Sam Hornish Jr 1324 0
28 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 1079 0
29 Justin Allgaier 1040 0
30 Trevor Bayne 842 0
31 David Gilliland 592 0
32 Regan Smith 572 0
33 Landon Cassill 448 0
34 Ryan Blaney 393 0
35 Chase Elliott 333 0
36 Alex Bowman 331 0
37 Brett Moffitt 264 0
38 Michael Annett 258 0
39 Cole Whitt 234 0
40 Ty Dillon 230 0
41 Matt Crafton 218 0
42 Matt DiBenedetto 214 0
43 Johnny Sauter 212 0
44 Josh Wise 149 0
45 JJ Yeley 136 0
46 Brian Scott 124 0
47 Brian Vickers 118 0
48 Michael McDowell 103 0
49 Chris Buescher 103 0
50 Mike Bliss 10 0
51 Reed Sorenson 5 0
52 Joe Nemechek 5 0
53 Erik Jones 5 0
54 Bobby Labonte 0 0
55 Michael Waltrip 0 0
56 Mike Wallace 0 0
57 Marcos Ambrose 0 0
58 Terry Labonte 0 0
59 Jeff Burton 0 0
60 David Reutimann 0 0
61 Travis Kvapil 0 0

Based on races 26-35, the Final Top 25 (spots 21-25 are wild cards)

  1. Kevin Harvick – 5300 points – reset to 2000
  2. Joey Logano – 5164 points – reset to 1800
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr – 4754 points – reset to 1600
  4. Jimmie Johnson – 4539 points – reset to 1440
  5. Brad Keselowski – 4486 points – reset to 1280
  6. Martin Truex Jr – 4413 points – reset to 1120
  7. Kurt Busch – 4219 points – reset to 960
  8. Jeff Gordon – 4203 points – reset to 800
  9. Carl Edwards – 4111 points – reset to 640
  10. Ryan Newman – 4019 points – reset to 480
  11. Denny Hamlin – 4005 points – reset to 384
  12. Jamie McMurray – 3918 points – reset to 368
  13. Matt Kenseth – 3677 points – reset to 352
  14. Aric Almirola – 3591 points – reset to 336
  15. Kasey Kahne – 3396 points – reset to 320
  16. Kyle Busch – 3309 points – reset to 304
  17. Paul Menard – 3185 points – reset to 288
  18. Clint Bowyer – 3156 points – reset to 272
  19. Kyle Larson – 2718 points – reset to 256
  20. Greg Biffle – 2687 points – reset to 248
  21. Ricky Stenhouse Jr – 866 points – reset to 240
  22. Austin Dillon – 619 points – reset to 232
  23. Casey Mears – 438 points – reset to 224
  24. Danica Patrick – 436 points – reset to 216
  25. Sam Hornish Jr – 435 points – reset to 208

As noted, Homestead in my pretend world would have a points structure similar to the PGA TOUR championship where all 25 drivers can theoretically win, but only the Top 5 can win without any help.  Using the actual Homestead standings for these 25, the final results?

  1. Kevin Harvick (2000 + 1200) 3200 points
  2. Joey Logano (1800 + 600) 2400 points
  3. Kyle Busch (304 + 2000) 2304 points
  4. Brad Keselowski (1280 + 800) 2080 points
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr (1600 + 196) 1796 points
  6. Jimmie Johnson (1440 + 320) 1760 points
  7. Martin Truex Jr (1120+260) 1380 points
  8. Kurt Busch (960 + 340) 1300 points
  9. Jeff Gordon (800 + 400) 1200 points
  10. Carl Edwards (640 + 280) 920 points
  11. Matt Kenseth (352+360) 712 points
  12. Ryan Newman (480+220) 700 points
  13. Kyle Larson (256+440) 696 points
  14. Denny Hamlin (384+300) 684 points
  15. Jamie McMurray (368+ 240) 608 points
  16. Kasey Kahne (320 + 216) 536 points
  17. Aric Almirola (336 + 192) 528 points
  18. Paul Menard (288 + 212) 500 points
  19. Greg Biffle (248 + 224) 472 points
  20. Austin Dillon (232 + 228) 460 points
  21. Clint Bowyer (272 + 184) 456 points
  22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr (240 + 208) 448 points
  23. Danica Patrick (216 + 204) 420 points
  24. Casey Mears (224 + 188) 412 points
  25. Sam Hornish Jr (208 + 200) 408 points

Kyle Busch, the Cup champion (and a legit one, since that’s what the rules dictated) would not have won and overcome his 11 race absence.  However, he would have won a $1M bonus for the race, and ended up #3 for the year which is an amazing run.

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