2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six

The methodology was detailed previously.  But after this week’s action, every team has two games in – which means we have mathematically legitimate schedule ratings.  (extremely limited ones, but hey!  It counts.)  My beloved Yellow Jackets were kicked in the teeth by Notre Dame in a game which – in a game with a different betting line – would have been a glorious backdoor cover.  On the bright side, Tech’s two other opponents did well, with Tulane getting its first win and “Other” scoring another FCS win. (to go to a rousing 5-82 on the season)  So in the grand scheme, the loss hurts but does not materially kill any of the goals.  Alabama and USC’s losses are much more problematic – not fatal, but problematic.  Anyway, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Georgia 3 0 0.5934 1.000 0.5934 8
2 UCLA 3 0 0.5799 0.991 0.5799 12
3 LSU 2 0 0.5739 0.987 0.5739 14
4 Oklahoma 3 0 0.5474 0.969 0.5474 19
5 Notre Dame 3 0 0.5456 0.967 0.5456 20
6 Ohio State 3 0 0.5415 0.965 0.5415 22
7 Ole Miss 3 0 0.5229 0.952 0.5229 27
8 Temple 3 0 0.5143 0.946 0.5143 29
9 Northwestern 3 0 0.4914 0.930 0.4914 35
10 Utah 3 0 0.4618 0.910 0.4618 45
11 Florida State 3 0 0.4463 0.900 0.4463 53
12 Miami-FL 3 0 0.4312 0.889 0.4312 58
13 BYU 2 1 0.4174 0.880 0.7507 1
14 Michigan State 3 0 0.4104 0.875 0.4104 69
15 Memphis 3 0 0.3681 0.846 0.3681 83
16 Houston 2 0 0.3631 0.843 0.3631 84
17 California 3 0 0.3624 0.842 0.3624 85
18 Clemson 3 0 0.3611 0.841 0.3611 87
19 Florida 3 0 0.3461 0.831 0.3461 96
20 Kansas State 3 0 0.3415 0.828 0.3415 98
21 Texas A&M 3 0 0.3339 0.823 0.3339 99
22 Oklahoma State 3 0 0.3311 0.821 0.3311 101
23 Toledo 2 0 0.3239 0.816 0.3239 103
24 Alabama 2 1 0.3224 0.815 0.6557 4
25 TCU 3 0 0.3196 0.813 0.3196 104
26 Iowa 3 0 0.3194 0.813 0.3194 105
27 Indiana 3 0 0.3048 0.803 0.3048 110
28 NC State 3 0 0.2982 0.799 0.2982 113
29 Syracuse 3 0 0.2965 0.797 0.2965 114
30 Missouri 3 0 0.2923 0.795 0.2923 115
31 Arizona 3 0 0.2858 0.790 0.2858 116
32 West Virginia 2 0 0.2720 0.781 0.2720 118
33 Ohio 3 0 0.2720 0.781 0.2720 119
34 Stanford 2 1 0.2716 0.780 0.6050 6
35 Baylor 2 0 0.2541 0.768 0.2541 121
36 Navy 2 0 0.2398 0.759 0.2398 122
37 Western Kentucky 2 1 0.2344 0.755 0.5677 15
38 Kentucky 2 1 0.2071 0.736 0.5404 23
39 Wisconsin 2 1 0.1907 0.725 0.5240 25
40 Tulsa 2 1 0.1905 0.725 0.5239 26
41 Tennessee 2 1 0.1778 0.716 0.5111 30
42 Texas Tech 3 0 0.1745 0.714 0.1745 125
43 Boise State 2 1 0.1700 0.711 0.5033 33
44 Hawaii 2 1 0.1684 0.710 0.5017 34
45 Michigan 2 1 0.1537 0.700 0.4870 36
46 Mississippi State 2 1 0.1531 0.700 0.4864 38
47 Northern Illinois 2 1 0.1473 0.696 0.4807 39
48 Auburn 2 1 0.1445 0.694 0.4778 40
49 Colorado 2 1 0.1402 0.691 0.4736 42
50 Penn State 2 1 0.1289 0.683 0.4622 44
51 Virginia Tech 2 1 0.1255 0.681 0.4589 46
52 South Alabama 2 1 0.1176 0.675 0.4510 50
53 Buffalo 2 1 0.1147 0.673 0.4480 52
54 Southern Miss 2 1 0.1034 0.666 0.4368 54
55 MTSU 2 1 0.1017 0.665 0.4350 56
56 North Carolina 2 1 0.0987 0.662 0.4320 57
57 Minnesota 2 1 0.0922 0.658 0.4256 61
58 Georgia Tech 2 1 0.0873 0.655 0.4206 63
59 LA-Monroe 1 1 0.0807 0.650 0.5807 11
60 Duke 2 1 0.0780 0.648 0.4114 68
61 Washington 2 1 0.0708 0.643 0.4041 71
62 South Carolina 1 2 0.0693 0.642 0.7360 2
63 USC 2 1 0.0670 0.641 0.4003 72
64 Pittsburgh 2 1 0.0640 0.639 0.3973 75
65 Oregon State 2 1 0.0614 0.637 0.3947 76
66 Illinois 2 1 0.0601 0.636 0.3934 78
67 Georgia Southern 2 1 0.0524 0.631 0.3858 79
68 Cincinnati 2 1 0.0436 0.625 0.3769 80
69 Air Force 2 1 0.0400 0.622 0.3733 81
70 Ball State 2 1 0.0286 0.615 0.3619 86
71 Wake Forest 2 1 0.0275 0.614 0.3608 88
72 Maryland 2 1 0.0268 0.613 0.3602 89
73 FIU 2 1 0.0194 0.608 0.3527 91
74 Arizona State 2 1 0.0178 0.607 0.3511 92
75 Boston College 2 1 0.0178 0.607 0.3511 93
76 Marshall 2 1 -0.0010 0.594 0.3323 100
77 Charlotte 2 1 -0.0069 0.590 0.3264 102
78 Rice 2 1 -0.0169 0.584 0.3164 106
79 Old Dominion 2 1 -0.0217 0.580 0.3116 107
80 Oregon 2 1 -0.0229 0.579 0.3104 108
81 Connecticut 2 1 -0.0301 0.575 0.3032 111
82 Nebraska 1 2 -0.0479 0.562 0.6187 5
83 Appalachian State 1 1 -0.0693 0.548 0.4307 59
84 LA-Lafayette 1 1 -0.0792 0.541 0.4208 62
85 Bowling Green 1 2 -0.0796 0.541 0.5871 9
86 Virginia 1 2 -0.0843 0.538 0.5824 10
87 Vanderbilt 1 2 -0.1122 0.519 0.5544 17
88 Texas 1 2 -0.1229 0.511 0.5438 21
89 Troy 1 2 -0.1298 0.507 0.5369 24
90 Fresno State 1 2 -0.1438 0.497 0.5229 28
91 South Florida 1 2 -0.1603 0.486 0.5063 31
92 Utah State 1 2 -0.1623 0.484 0.5044 32
93 Louisiana Tech 1 2 -0.1799 0.472 0.4868 37
94 Washington State 2 1 -0.1857 0.468 0.1476 127
95 Tulane 1 2 -0.1918 0.464 0.4749 41
96 Texas State 1 2 -0.2028 0.457 0.4638 43
97 East Carolina 1 2 -0.2089 0.453 0.4578 47
98 Akron 1 2 -0.2100 0.452 0.4567 48
99 Kent State 1 2 -0.2168 0.447 0.4499 51
100 Miami-OH 1 2 -0.2314 0.437 0.4352 55
101 San Jose State 1 2 -0.2393 0.432 0.4274 60
102 Nevada 1 2 -0.2461 0.427 0.4206 64
103 Central Michigan 1 2 -0.2493 0.425 0.4173 65
104 Western Michigan 1 2 -0.2497 0.425 0.4170 66
105 Idaho 1 2 -0.2519 0.423 0.4148 67
106 Purdue 1 2 -0.2574 0.420 0.4093 70
107 Arkansas State 1 2 -0.2666 0.413 0.4001 73
108 SMU 1 2 -0.2671 0.413 0.3996 74
109 New Mexico 1 2 -0.2730 0.409 0.3937 77
110 UNLV 0 3 -0.2759 0.407 0.7241 3
111 Colorado State 1 2 -0.2941 0.395 0.3726 82
112 San Diego State 1 2 -0.3114 0.383 0.3553 90
113 Iowa State 1 2 -0.3188 0.378 0.3479 95
114 UTEP 1 2 -0.3607 0.349 0.3059 109
115 Rutgers 1 2 -0.3637 0.347 0.3030 112
116 Other 5 83 -0.3900 0.329 0.5532 18
117 Massachusetts 0 2 -0.4014 0.321 0.5986 7
118 UTSA 0 3 -0.4243 0.306 0.5757 13
119 Georgia State 1 2 -0.4359 0.298 0.2308 123
120 Florida Atlantic 0 3 -0.4363 0.297 0.5637 16
121 Arkansas 1 2 -0.4732 0.272 0.1935 124
122 Eastern Michigan 1 2 -0.5234 0.238 0.1432 128
123 Louisville 0 3 -0.5446 0.224 0.4554 49
124 UCF 0 3 -0.6508 0.151 0.3492 94
125 North Texas 0 2 -0.6541 0.149 0.3459 97
126 Kansas 0 2 -0.7164 0.106 0.2836 117
127 Army 0 3 -0.7311 0.096 0.2689 120
128 Wyoming 0 3 -0.8469 0.017 0.1531 126
129 New Mexico State 0 3 -0.8723 0.000 0.1277 129

Qualifiers:  Georgia (SEC), UCLA (Pac-12), Oklahoma (Big 12),Ohio State (Big Ten), Florida State (ACC), Temple (Everybody Else)Projecting New Year’s Six Games

Following the work the committee did last year, we stick with conference champs only unless there is a strong case to do otherwise.  As you can see from the “Scale” sign, there are 7 teams in the 95th percentile and 11 in the 90th percentile.  So there is plenty to choose from here among conferences to not be too silly.  How will the committee treat Notre Dame against a conference champeen or a 2nd team?  I’d say an unbeaten Notre Dame gets treated the same as a conference champ – the committee showed the TV show matters and decisions will be made with that in mind. (I know they did not say it)

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Georgia v Notre Dame
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): UCLA v Oklahoma
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Ohio State v Utah
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): LSU v Kansas State
  • Peach Bowl: Florida State v Temple
  • Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss  v Northwestern
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