2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 4

The methodology was detailed previously.

Awwww … poor Notre Dame.  Actually the movement in the standings is interesting, and a good window into how the rankings moved.  Last week, Notre Dame was #5.  This week, with a 62-20 win over overmatched UMass, Notre Dame themselves did little wrong.  But you look at what happened to their schedule.  Georgia Tech, Virginia both lost decisively and Texas lost a close game.  The value of the schedule went down significantly (from #12 to #54).  Georgia plummeting to #12 is a result of this too – between LA-Monroe being served up to Alabama, as well as Georgia adding a cupcake to its own likes.  BYU’s schedule has remained very tall – and so it remains in the Top 30 with a 2-2 record.  On to the New Year’s Six:

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 LSU 3 0 0.6760 1.000 0.6760 6
2 UCLA 4 0 0.6430 0.978 0.6430 11
3 Oklahoma 3 0 0.6281 0.968 0.6281 12
4 Utah 4 0 0.5897 0.943 0.5897 27
5 Ole Miss 4 0 0.5665 0.928 0.5665 31
6 Temple 3 0 0.5441 0.913 0.5441 38
7 Ohio State 4 0 0.5297 0.903 0.5297 44
8 Northwestern 4 0 0.5237 0.900 0.5237 48
9 Notre Dame 4 0 0.5137 0.893 0.5137 54
10 Michigan State 4 0 0.4984 0.883 0.4984 58
11 Florida State 3 0 0.4982 0.883 0.4982 59
12 Georgia 4 0 0.4944 0.880 0.4944 61
13 California 4 0 0.4913 0.878 0.4913 63
14 Clemson 3 0 0.4767 0.868 0.4767 70
15 Toledo 3 0 0.4719 0.865 0.4719 75
16 Florida 4 0 0.4572 0.856 0.4572 84
17 Oklahoma State 4 0 0.4454 0.848 0.4454 88
18 Texas A&M 4 0 0.4370 0.842 0.4370 93
19 Miami-FL 3 0 0.4323 0.839 0.4323 97
20 Alabama 3 1 0.4308 0.838 0.6808 5
21 Indiana 4 0 0.4304 0.838 0.4304 98
22 Houston 3 0 0.4251 0.834 0.4251 99
23 TCU 4 0 0.4240 0.834 0.4240 100
24 Stanford 3 1 0.4143 0.827 0.6643 7
25 Michigan 3 1 0.4124 0.826 0.6624 8
26 Kansas State 3 0 0.3885 0.810 0.3885 108
27 Memphis 4 0 0.3828 0.807 0.3828 111
28 Navy 3 0 0.3700 0.798 0.3700 114
29 West Virginia 3 0 0.3661 0.796 0.3661 116
30 BYU 2 2 0.3547 0.788 0.8547 1
31 Iowa 4 0 0.3396 0.778 0.3396 119
32 NC State 4 0 0.3315 0.773 0.3315 120
33 Mississippi State 3 1 0.3251 0.768 0.5751 29
34 Western Kentucky 3 1 0.3210 0.766 0.5710 30
35 Boise State 3 1 0.3067 0.756 0.5567 34
36 Wisconsin 3 1 0.2981 0.751 0.5481 36
37 Baylor 3 0 0.2866 0.743 0.2866 123
38 Kentucky 3 1 0.2624 0.727 0.5124 55
39 Duke 3 1 0.2309 0.706 0.4809 68
40 Arizona 3 1 0.2275 0.704 0.4775 69
41 Minnesota 3 1 0.2232 0.701 0.4732 74
42 USC 3 1 0.2179 0.698 0.4679 78
43 Syracuse 3 1 0.2122 0.694 0.4622 81
44 Tulsa 2 1 0.2054 0.690 0.5387 41
45 Illinois 3 1 0.1963 0.684 0.4463 87
46 Georgia Southern 3 1 0.1911 0.680 0.4411 90
47 Boston College 3 1 0.1890 0.679 0.4390 92
48 Penn State 3 1 0.1832 0.675 0.4332 96
49 Missouri 3 1 0.1679 0.665 0.4179 102
50 Colorado 3 1 0.1606 0.660 0.4106 105
51 Pittsburgh 2 1 0.1537 0.655 0.4870 66
52 Marshall 3 1 0.1386 0.645 0.3886 107
53 Ohio 3 1 0.1292 0.639 0.3792 112
54 Texas Tech 3 1 0.1290 0.639 0.3790 113
55 Air Force 2 1 0.1255 0.637 0.4588 82
56 North Carolina 3 1 0.1188 0.632 0.3688 115
57 Appalachian State 2 1 0.1106 0.627 0.4440 89
58 Hawaii 2 2 0.1003 0.620 0.6003 17
59 Nebraska 2 2 0.0974 0.618 0.5974 21
60 Tennessee 2 2 0.0972 0.618 0.5972 22
61 South Carolina 2 2 0.0972 0.618 0.5972 23
62 Auburn 2 2 0.0960 0.617 0.5960 24
63 Oregon State 2 2 0.0942 0.616 0.5942 25
64 Bowling Green 2 2 0.0900 0.613 0.5900 26
65 Northern Illinois 2 2 0.0636 0.596 0.5636 32
66 Southern Miss 2 2 0.0436 0.583 0.5436 39
67 LA-Monroe 1 2 0.0290 0.573 0.6956 3
68 Georgia Tech 2 2 0.0280 0.573 0.5280 45
69 Akron 2 2 0.0276 0.572 0.5276 46
70 East Carolina 2 2 0.0256 0.571 0.5256 47
71 South Alabama 2 2 0.0211 0.568 0.5211 49
72 Washington 2 2 0.0191 0.567 0.5191 50
73 MTSU 2 2 0.0175 0.566 0.5175 51
74 Nevada 2 2 0.0139 0.563 0.5139 53
75 Louisiana Tech 2 2 0.0093 0.560 0.5093 56
76 Virginia Tech 2 2 0.0090 0.560 0.5090 57
77 Maryland 2 2 -0.0037 0.552 0.4963 60
78 FIU 2 2 -0.0142 0.545 0.4858 67
79 Oregon 2 2 -0.0238 0.538 0.4762 71
80 Cincinnati 2 2 -0.0243 0.538 0.4757 72
81 Ball State 2 2 -0.0247 0.538 0.4753 73
82 San Jose State 2 2 -0.0283 0.535 0.4717 76
83 Arizona State 2 2 -0.0357 0.530 0.4643 80
84 UNLV 1 3 -0.0514 0.520 0.6986 2
85 Wake Forest 2 2 -0.0601 0.514 0.4399 91
86 Rice 2 2 -0.0640 0.512 0.4360 94
87 Utah State 1 2 -0.0652 0.511 0.6015 16
88 Troy 1 2 -0.0676 0.509 0.5990 18
89 Buffalo 2 2 -0.0799 0.501 0.4201 101
90 Connecticut 2 2 -0.0834 0.499 0.4166 103
91 Colorado State 2 2 -0.0885 0.496 0.4115 104
92 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.0978 0.489 0.4022 106
93 Virginia 1 3 -0.0988 0.489 0.6512 9
94 Vanderbilt 1 3 -0.1029 0.486 0.6471 10
95 UTEP 2 2 -0.1159 0.478 0.3841 110
96 Tulane 1 2 -0.1187 0.476 0.5480 37
97 Fresno State 1 3 -0.1241 0.472 0.6259 13
98 South Florida 1 2 -0.1253 0.471 0.5414 40
99 Texas 1 3 -0.1463 0.458 0.6037 14
100 Western Michigan 1 3 -0.1512 0.454 0.5988 19
101 Charlotte 2 2 -0.1576 0.450 0.3424 118
102 Texas State 1 3 -0.1735 0.440 0.5765 28
103 Washington State 2 1 -0.1773 0.437 0.1561 129
104 New Mexico 2 2 -0.1847 0.432 0.3153 121
105 Miami-OH 1 3 -0.1876 0.430 0.5624 33
106 Iowa State 1 2 -0.1957 0.425 0.4710 77
107 Central Michigan 1 3 -0.1965 0.424 0.5535 35
108 Louisville 1 3 -0.2120 0.414 0.5380 42
109 Arkansas State 1 3 -0.2198 0.409 0.5302 43
110 Rutgers 2 2 -0.2234 0.407 0.2766 124
111 LA-Lafayette 1 2 -0.2307 0.402 0.4359 95
112 Florida Atlantic 1 3 -0.2326 0.401 0.5174 52
113 Idaho 1 3 -0.2594 0.383 0.4906 64
114 Arkansas 1 3 -0.2595 0.383 0.4905 65
115 Kent State 1 3 -0.2833 0.367 0.4667 79
116 San Diego State 1 3 -0.2926 0.361 0.4574 83
117 Purdue 1 3 -0.2967 0.358 0.4533 85
118 Massachusetts 0 3 -0.3072 0.351 0.6928 4
119 Other 6 89 -0.3335 0.334 0.6033 15
120 SMU 1 3 -0.3625 0.315 0.3875 109
121 Georgia State 1 2 -0.3910 0.296 0.2757 125
122 UTSA 0 4 -0.4024 0.289 0.5976 20
123 Army 1 3 -0.4486 0.258 0.3014 122
124 UCF 0 4 -0.5082 0.219 0.4918 62
125 North Texas 0 3 -0.5478 0.193 0.4522 86
126 Eastern Michigan 1 3 -0.5525 0.190 0.1975 127
127 Kansas 0 3 -0.6355 0.135 0.3645 117
128 New Mexico State 0 3 -0.7576 0.054 0.2424 126
129 Wyoming 0 4 -0.8398 0.000 0.1602 128

Projecting New Year’s Six Games

Following the work the committee did last year, we stick with conference champs only unless there is a strong case to do otherwise.  Looking at the automatic qualifiers:

LSU (1), UCLA (2), Oklahoma (3), Temple (6), Ohio State (7), Notre Dame (9), Florida State (11)

Now in real life I expect Ohio State to get in, and they are in the collective of teams with a rating of .900 or better.  That being said, Temple has beaten teams who look at least as good as Ohio State’s resume, and since the party will probably not last, picking Temple for the #4 slot seems like fun.  Of course the Rose Bowl will get a Big 12 and SEC team, and the Rose Bowl will get a Pac-12 team.  The rest?

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): LSU v Temple
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): UCLA v Oklahoma
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Ohio State v Utah
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Ole Miss v Oklahoma State
  • Peach Bowl: Florida State v Michigan State
  • Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v Northwestern
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