2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 5

The methodology was detailed previously.

Well, that happened.  As we covered last week, Temple slowly dripping down the list as the schedule reveals itself – which is how the standings really should work.  This past week, there was a lot of carnage with UCLA, Notre Dame, Georgia all suffering surprising losses (ND not a surprise, but UCLA and Georgia home beatdowns which did not seem likely).  As you can imagine the rankings shook up a lot.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Oklahoma 4 0 0.6267 1.000 0.6267 3
2 Utah 4 0 0.5281 0.929 0.5281 28
3 LSU 4 0 0.5255 0.927 0.5255 30
4 Texas A&M 5 0 0.4985 0.908 0.4985 45
5 Toledo 4 0 0.4985 0.908 0.4985 46
6 Florida State 4 0 0.4929 0.904 0.4929 50
7 Northwestern 5 0 0.4863 0.899 0.4863 53
8 Ohio State 5 0 0.4863 0.899 0.4863 54
9 Clemson 4 0 0.4791 0.894 0.4791 59
10 Florida 5 0 0.4662 0.885 0.4662 65
11 Houston 4 0 0.4586 0.879 0.4586 68
12 Alabama 4 1 0.4369 0.864 0.6369 2
13 Temple 4 0 0.4361 0.863 0.4361 76
14 Michigan State 5 0 0.4227 0.854 0.4227 85
15 Stanford 4 1 0.4053 0.841 0.6053 6
16 Iowa 5 0 0.3944 0.833 0.3944 96
17 Oklahoma State 5 0 0.3909 0.831 0.3909 98
18 Navy 4 0 0.3859 0.827 0.3859 100
19 Michigan 4 1 0.3838 0.826 0.5838 8
20 Memphis 5 0 0.3776 0.821 0.3776 104
21 California 5 0 0.3673 0.814 0.3673 111
22 Ole Miss 4 1 0.3553 0.805 0.5553 23
23 TCU 5 0 0.3552 0.805 0.3552 114
24 UCLA 4 1 0.3211 0.781 0.5211 32
25 Georgia 4 1 0.3100 0.773 0.5100 36
26 BYU 3 2 0.3068 0.770 0.7068 1
27 Notre Dame 4 1 0.2957 0.762 0.4957 48
28 Western Kentucky 4 1 0.2942 0.761 0.4942 49
29 Indiana 4 1 0.2732 0.746 0.4732 61
30 Baylor 4 0 0.2724 0.746 0.2724 123
31 Pittsburgh 3 1 0.2566 0.734 0.5066 39
32 USC 3 1 0.2539 0.732 0.5039 41
33 Duke 4 1 0.2469 0.727 0.4469 71
34 West Virginia 3 1 0.2423 0.724 0.4923 51
35 Boise State 4 1 0.2357 0.719 0.4357 77
36 Illinois 4 1 0.2308 0.716 0.4308 82
37 Kentucky 4 1 0.2042 0.697 0.4042 94
38 Georgia Southern 4 1 0.2027 0.696 0.4027 95
39 Penn State 4 1 0.1912 0.687 0.3912 97
40 North Carolina 4 1 0.1796 0.679 0.3796 102
41 Ohio 4 1 0.1724 0.674 0.3724 108
42 Missouri 4 1 0.1723 0.674 0.3723 109
43 Syracuse 3 1 0.1690 0.672 0.4190 88
44 Bowling Green 3 2 0.1664 0.670 0.5664 13
45 Miami-FL 3 1 0.1623 0.667 0.4123 92
46 Mississippi State 3 2 0.1620 0.667 0.5620 17
47 Kansas State 3 1 0.1614 0.666 0.4114 93
48 Arizona State 3 2 0.1608 0.666 0.5608 18
49 Minnesota 3 2 0.1089 0.628 0.5089 37
50 Auburn 3 2 0.1069 0.627 0.5069 38
51 Marshall 4 1 0.1063 0.626 0.3063 120
52 NC State 4 1 0.0925 0.617 0.2925 121
53 East Carolina 3 2 0.0820 0.609 0.4820 57
54 Wisconsin 3 2 0.0731 0.603 0.4731 62
55 Tulsa 2 2 0.0656 0.597 0.5656 14
56 Arizona 3 2 0.0651 0.597 0.4651 66
57 Oregon State 2 2 0.0587 0.592 0.5587 22
58 Cincinnati 3 2 0.0538 0.589 0.4538 70
59 Texas Tech 3 2 0.0437 0.582 0.4437 74
60 Boston College 3 2 0.0403 0.579 0.4403 75
61 Oregon 3 2 0.0345 0.575 0.4345 79
62 Appalachian State 3 1 0.0344 0.575 0.2844 122
63 Louisiana Tech 3 2 0.0283 0.571 0.4283 83
64 South Alabama 3 2 0.0204 0.565 0.4204 86
65 Tennessee 2 3 0.0072 0.555 0.6072 5
66 Utah State 2 2 0.0030 0.552 0.5030 42
67 Vanderbilt 2 3 0.0016 0.551 0.6016 7
68 Arkansas 2 3 -0.0193 0.536 0.5807 9
69 Southern Miss 3 2 -0.0203 0.536 0.3797 101
70 Air Force 2 2 -0.0257 0.532 0.4743 60
71 Hawaii 2 3 -0.0324 0.527 0.5676 12
72 Louisville 2 3 -0.0366 0.524 0.5634 16
73 Washington 2 2 -0.0392 0.522 0.4608 67
74 UNLV 2 3 -0.0395 0.522 0.5605 19
75 Maryland 2 3 -0.0407 0.521 0.5593 21
76 Nebraska 2 3 -0.0594 0.508 0.5406 24
77 Colorado 3 2 -0.0646 0.504 0.3354 116
78 Ball State 2 3 -0.0664 0.503 0.5336 27
79 South Carolina 2 3 -0.0744 0.497 0.5256 29
80 Tulane 2 2 -0.0842 0.490 0.4158 90
81 Northern Illinois 2 3 -0.0879 0.487 0.5121 34
82 Connecticut 2 3 -0.0940 0.483 0.5060 40
83 Georgia Tech 2 3 -0.0993 0.479 0.5007 43
84 Wake Forest 2 3 -0.1014 0.477 0.4986 44
85 Central Michigan 2 3 -0.1036 0.476 0.4964 47
86 Virginia Tech 2 3 -0.1099 0.471 0.4901 52
87 MTSU 2 3 -0.1144 0.468 0.4856 55
88 Akron 2 3 -0.1191 0.465 0.4809 58
89 Iowa State 2 2 -0.1244 0.461 0.3756 106
90 Arkansas State 2 3 -0.1326 0.455 0.4674 64
91 New Mexico 3 2 -0.1383 0.451 0.2617 124
92 LA-Monroe 1 3 -0.1425 0.448 0.6075 4
93 Nevada 2 3 -0.1441 0.447 0.4559 69
94 FIU 2 3 -0.1690 0.429 0.4310 81
95 Virginia 1 3 -0.1714 0.427 0.5786 10
96 San Jose State 2 3 -0.1798 0.421 0.4202 87
97 Rice 2 3 -0.1810 0.420 0.4190 89
98 Massachusetts 1 3 -0.1844 0.418 0.5656 15
99 Kent State 2 3 -0.2132 0.397 0.3868 99
100 Western Michigan 1 3 -0.2132 0.397 0.5368 25
101 Texas State 1 3 -0.2136 0.397 0.5364 26
102 Old Dominion 2 3 -0.2234 0.390 0.3766 105
103 Buffalo 2 3 -0.2307 0.385 0.3693 110
104 Texas 1 4 -0.2317 0.384 0.5683 11
105 Colorado State 2 3 -0.2355 0.381 0.3645 113
106 South Florida 1 3 -0.2389 0.379 0.5111 35
107 Rutgers 2 2 -0.2499 0.371 0.2501 125
108 San Diego State 2 3 -0.2520 0.369 0.3480 115
109 Washington State 2 2 -0.2533 0.368 0.2467 126
110 Fresno State 1 4 -0.2745 0.353 0.5255 31
111 UTEP 2 3 -0.2779 0.351 0.3221 117
112 Charlotte 2 3 -0.2790 0.350 0.3210 118
113 Miami-OH 1 4 -0.2858 0.345 0.5142 33
114 LA-Lafayette 1 3 -0.3058 0.331 0.4442 73
115 Idaho 1 4 -0.3151 0.324 0.4849 56
116 Florida Atlantic 1 3 -0.3178 0.322 0.4322 80
117 Troy 1 3 -0.3260 0.316 0.4240 84
118 Purdue 1 4 -0.3300 0.313 0.4700 63
119 UTSA 1 4 -0.3533 0.297 0.4467 72
120 Other 7 90 -0.3675 0.286 0.5603 20
121 SMU 1 4 -0.4268 0.244 0.3732 107
122 Army 1 4 -0.4346 0.238 0.3654 112
123 Eastern Michigan 1 4 -0.4878 0.200 0.3122 119
124 North Texas 0 4 -0.5653 0.145 0.4347 78
125 UCF 0 5 -0.5876 0.129 0.4124 91
126 Georgia State 1 3 -0.5936 0.124 0.1564 129
127 Kansas 0 4 -0.6219 0.104 0.3781 103
128 New Mexico State 0 4 -0.7590 0.005 0.2410 127
129 Wyoming 0 5 -0.7667 0.000 0.2333 128

Now, the human polls would have TCU and Baylor in the Top 5 – why are they so low here?  Well, as it turns out so far – there is not a lot of evidence that the team’s best wins (Texas Tech, Texas, Minnesota) were in fact any good.  Right now those teams both look to have played soft slates so far and it shows in the record.  Now, I do think there is plenty of time for this to resolve itself, but right now the two Oklahoma schools have much better actual resumes.

Projecting New Year’s Six Games

Following the work the committee did last year, we stick with conference champs only unless there is a strong case to do otherwise.  Looking at the automatic qualifiers:

Oklahoma (1), Utah (2), LSU (3), Toledo (5), Florida State (6), Northwestern (7)

In real life, Florida State should pass Toledo as long as both teams keep winning.  But right now, Toledo’s win at Arkansas trumps FSU just a little bit – and it is fun to give the honour to somebody new.  Stanford v California for the second Pac-12 spot, but since neither has lost in conference, Stanford’s rating gets primacy.  I also note that the Peach Bowl has Florida State-Florida a match which almost certainly won’t happen. (since it is a rematch) but for our “stop the music now” exercise it fits.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Oklahoma v Toledo
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): Utah v LSU
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Northwestern v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Texas A&M v Oklahoma State
  • Peach Bowl: Florida State v Florida
  • Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State v Clemson
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