2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 6

The methodology was detailed previously.

Well, to the surprise of nobody – Toledo and Temple, despite continuing to win, ease on down the ratings.  It’s what happens when conference chum keeps filling the resume up.  Of course, this reality will make a non-Power 5 team cracking the top 4 difficult – and provides more good reasons to have a 16-team tourney or something.  Also, after slogging around the bottom of the Top 20, TCU’s schedule got a wicked jolt from wins by Minnesota and Texas, along with the Horned Frogs stirring comeback against Kansas State.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Utah 5 0 0.5715 1.000 0.5715 34
2 Oklahoma State 6 0 0.5643 0.994 0.5643 36
3 TCU 6 0 0.5488 0.981 0.5488 42
4 Clemson 5 0 0.5466 0.979 0.5466 43
5 Texas A&M 5 0 0.5435 0.977 0.5435 45
6 Florida State 5 0 0.5320 0.967 0.5320 52
7 Florida 6 0 0.5291 0.965 0.5291 58
8 Ohio State 6 0 0.5074 0.947 0.5074 75
9 LSU 5 0 0.5052 0.945 0.5052 76
10 Toledo 5 0 0.4937 0.935 0.4937 83
11 Memphis 5 0 0.4724 0.918 0.4724 94
12 Temple 5 0 0.4702 0.916 0.4702 95
13 Alabama 5 1 0.4557 0.904 0.6224 12
14 Michigan 5 1 0.4417 0.892 0.6084 16
15 Northwestern 5 1 0.4410 0.892 0.6077 18
16 Michigan State 6 0 0.4385 0.890 0.4385 105
17 Oklahoma 4 1 0.4252 0.879 0.6252 9
18 Iowa 6 0 0.4246 0.878 0.4246 114
19 Notre Dame 5 1 0.4244 0.878 0.5911 22
20 Stanford 4 1 0.4236 0.877 0.6236 11
21 Houston 5 0 0.4224 0.876 0.4224 115
22 California 5 1 0.4146 0.870 0.5813 29
23 UCLA 4 1 0.4005 0.858 0.6005 19
24 BYU 4 2 0.3756 0.837 0.7089 2
25 Western Kentucky 5 1 0.3632 0.827 0.5299 56
26 Baylor 5 0 0.3501 0.816 0.3501 127
27 Boise State 5 1 0.3496 0.816 0.5163 70
28 Pittsburgh 4 1 0.3394 0.807 0.5394 48
29 Ole Miss 5 1 0.3315 0.801 0.4982 79
30 Navy 4 1 0.3225 0.793 0.5225 64
31 Duke 5 1 0.3150 0.787 0.4817 86
32 Penn State 5 1 0.2958 0.771 0.4625 97
33 Ohio 5 1 0.2609 0.742 0.4276 111
34 Kentucky 4 1 0.2604 0.742 0.4604 98
35 Bowling Green 4 2 0.2512 0.734 0.5845 27
36 Washington 3 2 0.2505 0.734 0.6505 5
37 Georgia 4 2 0.2401 0.725 0.5734 31
38 Minnesota 4 2 0.2398 0.725 0.5732 32
39 Georgia Southern 4 1 0.2384 0.724 0.4384 106
40 Arizona State 4 2 0.2336 0.720 0.5670 35
41 North Carolina 4 1 0.2254 0.713 0.4254 113
42 Indiana 4 2 0.2198 0.708 0.5531 41
43 Marshall 5 1 0.2072 0.698 0.3738 124
44 Mississippi State 4 2 0.1981 0.690 0.5315 53
45 Wisconsin 4 2 0.1935 0.686 0.5268 62
46 USC 3 2 0.1874 0.681 0.5874 24
47 Arizona 4 2 0.1850 0.679 0.5183 68
48 Texas Tech 4 2 0.1812 0.676 0.5145 72
49 Louisiana Tech 4 2 0.1630 0.661 0.4963 81
50 Illinois 4 2 0.1616 0.660 0.4949 82
51 Kansas State 3 2 0.1551 0.654 0.5551 39
52 Missouri 4 2 0.1482 0.649 0.4816 87
53 West Virginia 3 2 0.1412 0.643 0.5412 47
54 Miami-FL 3 2 0.1342 0.637 0.5342 50
55 Auburn 3 2 0.1293 0.633 0.5293 57
56 Tennessee 3 3 0.1283 0.632 0.6283 8
57 Utah State 3 2 0.1218 0.627 0.5218 65
58 Appalachian State 4 1 0.1217 0.627 0.3217 128
59 Cincinnati 3 2 0.1187 0.624 0.5187 67
60 Tulsa 3 2 0.1135 0.620 0.5135 73
61 East Carolina 3 3 0.0916 0.602 0.5916 21
62 Syracuse 3 2 0.0796 0.592 0.4796 89
63 South Alabama 3 2 0.0765 0.589 0.4765 93
64 NC State 4 2 0.0753 0.588 0.4086 118
65 Texas 2 4 0.0552 0.572 0.7219 1
66 Wake Forest 3 3 0.0442 0.562 0.5442 44
67 Air Force 3 2 0.0307 0.551 0.4307 108
68 Virginia Tech 3 3 0.0289 0.550 0.5289 59
69 Arkansas 2 4 0.0284 0.549 0.6951 3
70 Vanderbilt 2 3 0.0248 0.546 0.6248 10
71 Northern Illinois 3 3 0.0162 0.539 0.5162 71
72 Washington State 3 2 0.0151 0.538 0.4151 117
73 Oregon State 2 3 0.0090 0.533 0.6090 15
74 Connecticut 3 3 -0.0017 0.524 0.4983 78
75 Nevada 3 3 -0.0105 0.517 0.4895 84
76 Louisville 2 3 -0.0115 0.516 0.5885 23
77 Akron 3 3 -0.0116 0.516 0.4884 85
78 Rice 3 3 -0.0204 0.509 0.4796 90
79 Maryland 2 4 -0.0218 0.508 0.6449 6
80 Boston College 3 3 -0.0218 0.508 0.4782 91
81 San Jose State 3 3 -0.0318 0.499 0.4682 96
82 Oregon 3 3 -0.0527 0.482 0.4473 103
83 Georgia Tech 2 4 -0.0551 0.480 0.6116 14
84 South Florida 2 3 -0.0584 0.477 0.5416 46
85 Western Michigan 2 3 -0.0692 0.468 0.5308 54
86 Southern Miss 3 3 -0.0709 0.467 0.4291 109
87 South Carolina 2 4 -0.0720 0.466 0.5947 20
88 Colorado 3 3 -0.0722 0.466 0.4278 110
89 Tulane 2 3 -0.0722 0.466 0.5278 61
90 San Diego State 3 3 -0.0742 0.464 0.4258 112
91 Ball State 2 4 -0.0810 0.459 0.5857 25
92 UNLV 2 4 -0.0838 0.456 0.5828 28
93 FIU 3 3 -0.0846 0.456 0.4154 116
94 Nebraska 2 4 -0.0880 0.453 0.5786 30
95 Arkansas State 2 3 -0.0965 0.446 0.5035 77
96 MTSU 2 4 -0.1058 0.438 0.5609 38
97 Hawaii 2 4 -0.1135 0.432 0.5532 40
98 Iowa State 2 3 -0.1185 0.427 0.4815 88
99 Central Michigan 2 4 -0.1284 0.419 0.5383 49
100 New Mexico 3 3 -0.1284 0.419 0.3716 125
101 Virginia 1 4 -0.1297 0.418 0.6703 4
102 Colorado State 2 4 -0.1435 0.407 0.5231 63
103 LA-Lafayette 2 3 -0.1472 0.404 0.4528 100
104 Buffalo 2 3 -0.1486 0.402 0.4514 101
105 Kent State 2 4 -0.1561 0.396 0.5106 74
106 Massachusetts 1 4 -0.1576 0.395 0.6424 7
107 Old Dominion 2 3 -0.1628 0.391 0.4372 107
108 LA-Monroe 1 4 -0.1807 0.376 0.6193 13
109 Rutgers 2 3 -0.2030 0.357 0.3970 121
110 UTEP 2 4 -0.2173 0.345 0.4493 102
111 Charlotte 2 3 -0.2234 0.340 0.3766 123
112 Miami-OH 1 5 -0.2480 0.320 0.5853 26
113 Fresno State 1 5 -0.2614 0.309 0.5719 33
114 Idaho 1 4 -0.2663 0.305 0.5337 51
115 UTSA 1 5 -0.2711 0.301 0.5622 37
116 Texas State 1 4 -0.2712 0.301 0.5288 60
117 Troy 1 4 -0.2817 0.292 0.5183 69
118 Purdue 1 5 -0.3032 0.274 0.5301 55
119 Other 8 90 -0.3100 0.268 0.6084 17
120 SMU 1 5 -0.3363 0.247 0.4970 80
121 Florida Atlantic 1 4 -0.3540 0.232 0.4460 104
122 Army 1 5 -0.3552 0.231 0.4781 92
123 Eastern Michigan 1 5 -0.4466 0.155 0.3867 122
124 Kansas 0 5 -0.4805 0.127 0.5195 66
125 Georgia State 1 4 -0.5173 0.096 0.2827 129
126 UCF 0 6 -0.5438 0.074 0.4562 99
127 New Mexico State 0 5 -0.5973 0.030 0.4027 119
128 North Texas 0 5 -0.5984 0.029 0.4016 120
129 Wyoming 0 6 -0.6335 0.000 0.3665 126


Projecting New Year’s Six Games

 

Baylor is still lagging with the schedule – so again the eye test does not match what has actually been accomplished.  Alabama and Michigan as the top two one-loss teams seems obvious.  So, the automatics as of today.

Utah (1), Oklahoma State (2), Clemson (4), Texas A&M (5), Ohio State (8), Toledo (10)

This week, with four of the top 5 as conference champs, we have a clean Final Four.  The rest is a bit muddier.  Now, as a practical matter I’d expect Alabama to pass say Memphis, but what the hell for now.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Utah v Texas A&M
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): Oklahoma State v Clemson
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Ohio State v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Florida v TCU
  • Peach Bowl: Florida State v LSU
  • Fiesta Bowl: Toledo v Memphis
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