2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 7

The methodology was detailed previously.

Clearly the best week ever belonged to Michigan State, between their stunning win over Michigan, Oregon’s strong win over Washington increased the timber of its schedule considerably.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma and Alabama started back up the rankings with strong road wins.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Utah 6 0 0.6034 1.000 0.6034 20
2 Michigan State 7 0 0.5622 0.964 0.5622 43
3 Clemson 6 0 0.5612 0.964 0.5612 44
4 Oklahoma State 6 0 0.5525 0.956 0.5525 50
5 LSU 6 0 0.5470 0.951 0.5470 52
6 Florida State 6 0 0.5392 0.945 0.5392 59
7 TCU 7 0 0.5207 0.929 0.5207 70
8 Alabama 6 1 0.5192 0.927 0.6620 4
9 Memphis 6 0 0.5134 0.922 0.5134 73
10 Ohio State 7 0 0.5000 0.911 0.5000 79
11 Oklahoma 5 1 0.4893 0.901 0.6560 8
12 Iowa 7 0 0.4892 0.901 0.4892 84
13 Notre Dame 6 1 0.4723 0.887 0.6151 16
14 Florida 6 1 0.4436 0.862 0.5865 33
15 California 5 1 0.4313 0.851 0.5980 23
16 Texas A&M 5 1 0.4260 0.847 0.5927 27
17 Pittsburgh 5 1 0.4258 0.847 0.5924 28
18 Stanford 5 1 0.4251 0.846 0.5918 30
19 Toledo 6 0 0.4113 0.834 0.4113 110
20 BYU 5 2 0.3956 0.821 0.6813 3
21 Houston 6 0 0.3947 0.820 0.3947 117
22 Baylor 6 0 0.3919 0.817 0.3919 118
23 Temple 6 0 0.3888 0.815 0.3888 120
24 Navy 4 1 0.3173 0.753 0.5173 72
25 Northwestern 5 2 0.3063 0.743 0.5920 29
26 Michigan 5 2 0.3050 0.742 0.5907 31
27 UCLA 4 2 0.2877 0.727 0.6210 13
28 Bowling Green 5 2 0.2765 0.718 0.5622 42
29 Western Kentucky 6 1 0.2709 0.713 0.4137 109
30 Georgia 5 2 0.2685 0.711 0.5542 48
31 Duke 5 1 0.2589 0.703 0.4256 104
32 Ole Miss 5 2 0.2559 0.700 0.5416 56
33 Boise State 5 2 0.2552 0.699 0.5409 58
34 North Carolina 5 1 0.2543 0.699 0.4210 106
35 Mississippi State 5 2 0.2465 0.692 0.5323 64
36 Ohio 6 1 0.2463 0.692 0.3891 119
37 Wisconsin 5 2 0.2374 0.684 0.5232 68
38 Marshall 6 1 0.2263 0.674 0.3692 123
39 Auburn 4 2 0.2155 0.665 0.5489 51
40 Penn State 5 2 0.2129 0.663 0.4986 80
41 Utah State 4 2 0.2105 0.661 0.5438 54
42 Miami-FL 4 2 0.2077 0.658 0.5411 57
43 Texas Tech 5 2 0.1999 0.652 0.4856 85
44 Illinois 4 2 0.1885 0.642 0.5218 69
45 Georgia Southern 5 1 0.1848 0.639 0.3515 125
46 Arizona 5 2 0.1815 0.636 0.4672 93
47 Arizona State 4 3 0.1799 0.634 0.6084 17
48 Appalachian State 5 1 0.1782 0.633 0.3449 127
49 Minnesota 4 3 0.1643 0.621 0.5929 26
50 Tennessee 3 3 0.1576 0.615 0.6576 6
51 USC 3 3 0.1522 0.610 0.6522 9
52 Washington 3 3 0.1514 0.610 0.6514 10
53 East Carolina 4 3 0.1442 0.604 0.5728 38
54 Kentucky 4 2 0.1343 0.595 0.4677 92
55 Oregon 4 3 0.1267 0.588 0.5553 46
56 West Virginia 3 3 0.1152 0.579 0.6152 15
57 Missouri 4 3 0.1045 0.569 0.5331 63
58 Washington State 4 2 0.0955 0.561 0.4288 103
59 Texas 2 4 0.0954 0.561 0.7621 1
60 Kansas State 3 3 0.0940 0.560 0.5940 25
61 Indiana 4 3 0.0833 0.551 0.5119 75
62 South Florida 3 3 0.0651 0.535 0.5651 41
63 Louisiana Tech 4 3 0.0645 0.535 0.4931 82
64 Cincinnati 3 3 0.0544 0.526 0.5544 47
65 NC State 4 2 0.0468 0.519 0.3801 122
66 Tulsa 3 3 0.0429 0.516 0.5429 55
67 Northern Illinois 4 3 0.0423 0.516 0.4709 91
68 Nebraska 3 4 0.0338 0.508 0.6053 19
69 South Carolina 3 4 0.0316 0.506 0.6030 21
70 Arkansas 2 4 0.0285 0.504 0.6952 2
71 Virginia Tech 3 4 0.0133 0.491 0.5848 36
72 Syracuse 3 3 0.0087 0.487 0.5087 76
73 Wake Forest 3 4 -0.0054 0.474 0.5660 40
74 Southern Miss 4 3 -0.0073 0.473 0.4213 105
75 Maryland 2 4 -0.0077 0.472 0.6590 5
76 Louisville 2 4 -0.0094 0.471 0.6573 7
77 Arkansas State 3 3 -0.0232 0.459 0.4768 89
78 San Diego State 4 3 -0.0277 0.455 0.4009 115
79 Rice 3 3 -0.0289 0.454 0.4711 90
80 Virginia 2 4 -0.0342 0.450 0.6324 11
81 Boston College 3 4 -0.0368 0.447 0.5346 62
82 Rutgers 3 3 -0.0396 0.445 0.4604 94
83 Akron 3 4 -0.0408 0.444 0.5306 65
84 South Alabama 3 3 -0.0436 0.441 0.4564 96
85 Air Force 3 3 -0.0457 0.440 0.4543 97
86 Central Michigan 3 4 -0.0519 0.434 0.5195 71
87 MTSU 3 4 -0.0589 0.428 0.5126 74
88 Vanderbilt 2 4 -0.0677 0.421 0.5989 22
89 Western Michigan 2 4 -0.0723 0.417 0.5944 24
90 Connecticut 3 4 -0.0740 0.415 0.4974 81
91 Kent State 3 4 -0.0803 0.410 0.4911 83
92 Oregon State 2 4 -0.0812 0.409 0.5855 34
93 Colorado State 3 4 -0.0880 0.403 0.4834 86
94 Georgia Tech 2 5 -0.0884 0.403 0.6259 12
95 New Mexico 4 3 -0.0985 0.394 0.3301 128
96 Old Dominion 3 3 -0.1022 0.391 0.3978 116
97 Iowa State 2 4 -0.1140 0.381 0.5527 49
98 Tulane 2 4 -0.1278 0.369 0.5389 60
99 Colorado 3 4 -0.1279 0.369 0.4436 101
100 Fresno State 2 5 -0.1543 0.346 0.5600 45
101 San Jose State 3 4 -0.1564 0.344 0.4151 108
102 FIU 3 4 -0.1624 0.339 0.4090 111
103 Idaho 2 4 -0.1624 0.339 0.5042 78
104 Nevada 3 4 -0.1630 0.338 0.4084 112
105 Hawaii 2 5 -0.1760 0.327 0.5383 61
106 LA-Lafayette 2 3 -0.1820 0.322 0.4180 107
107 UNLV 2 5 -0.2099 0.298 0.5044 77
108 Buffalo 2 4 -0.2132 0.295 0.4535 98
109 LA-Monroe 1 5 -0.2143 0.294 0.6190 14
110 Ball State 2 5 -0.2362 0.275 0.4781 88
111 Massachusetts 1 5 -0.2482 0.265 0.5851 35
112 Texas State 1 4 -0.2559 0.258 0.5441 53
113 UTEP 2 4 -0.2592 0.255 0.4074 113
114 Purdue 1 6 -0.2696 0.246 0.5876 32
115 Miami-OH 1 6 -0.2832 0.235 0.5740 37
116 SMU 1 5 -0.3080 0.213 0.5253 66
117 Charlotte 2 4 -0.3117 0.210 0.3550 124
118 Other 8 91 -0.3131 0.209 0.6061 18
119 Army 2 5 -0.3266 0.197 0.3877 121
120 UTSA 1 6 -0.3323 0.192 0.5249 67
121 Georgia State 2 4 -0.3522 0.175 0.3144 129
122 Troy 1 5 -0.3852 0.147 0.4481 99
123 Florida Atlantic 1 5 -0.3981 0.135 0.4353 102
124 Kansas 0 6 -0.4300 0.108 0.5700 39
125 Eastern Michigan 1 6 -0.4521 0.089 0.4050 114
126 Wyoming 1 6 -0.5099 0.039 0.3472 126
127 UCF 0 7 -0.5204 0.030 0.4796 87
128 North Texas 0 6 -0.5416 0.012 0.4584 95
129 New Mexico State 0 6 -0.5550 0.000 0.4450 100

Baylor is still lagging with the schedule, so #22 despite their elite scoring margin – so again the eye test does not match what has actually been accomplished.

Utah (1), Michigan State (2), Clemson (3), Oklahoma State (4), LSU (5), Memphis (9)

This week, with four of the top 5 as conference champs, we have a clean Final Four.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Utah v Oklahoma State
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): Michigan State v Clemson
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Ohio State v California
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Alabama v TCU
  • Peach Bowl: Florida State v Memphis
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v Iowa

Fake 16 Team Tournament

Using conference losses as first criteria, then ranking

Automatic Bids

  • Pac 12: Utah (1)
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (2)
  • ACC: Clemson (3)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (4)
  • SEC: LSU (5)
  • American: Memphis (9)
  • MAC: Toledo (19)
  • C-USA: Western Kentucky (29)
  • MWC: Utah State (41)
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (45)

At-Large Positions

  • Florida State (6)
  • TCU (7)
  • Alabama (8)
  • Ohio State (10)
  • Oklahoma (11)
  • Iowa (12)

WEST (1 seed)

  • (1) Utah v (4) Georgia Southern
  • (2) Alabama v (3) Memphis

SOUTH (4 seed)

  • (1) Oklahoma State v (4) Toledo
  • (2) Florida State v  (3) Iowa

MIDWEST (2 seed)

  • (1) Michigan State v (4) Utah State
  • (2) TCU v (3) Ohio State

EAST (3 seed)

  • (1) Clemson v (4) Western Kentucky
  • (2) LSU v (3) Oklahoma
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