2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 8

The methodology was detailed previously.

Can a 3-5 team have the best week ever?  I’m not sure but in a lost season, that Georgia Tech miracle against Florida State was worth an attaboy.  Otherwise, in a theoretically sleepy week, there were a lot of fascinating results.  USC knocked off Utah, and of course Florida State lost.  Alabama had to sweat seriously to beat Tennessee, and Clemson demolished a “not that bad” Miami team, enough to get the Canes coach fired.  Michigan State had to muck around for three quarters before getting Indiana out of there.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Clemson 7 0 0.5841 1.000 0.5841 25
2 LSU 7 0 0.5399 0.963 0.5399 48
3 Memphis 7 0 0.5166 0.943 0.5166 61
4 Michigan State 8 0 0.5150 0.942 0.5150 63
5 Alabama 7 1 0.5053 0.934 0.6303 10
6 TCU 7 0 0.4965 0.927 0.4965 73
7 Oklahoma State 7 0 0.4839 0.916 0.4839 80
8 Iowa 7 0 0.4784 0.912 0.4784 82
9 Ohio State 8 0 0.4771 0.911 0.4771 84
10 Oklahoma 6 1 0.4749 0.909 0.6178 11
11 Notre Dame 6 1 0.4726 0.907 0.6155 13
12 Pittsburgh 6 1 0.4584 0.895 0.6012 18
13 Utah 6 1 0.4544 0.892 0.5973 20
14 Stanford 6 1 0.4461 0.885 0.5890 23
15 Florida 6 1 0.4169 0.860 0.5597 38
16 Temple 7 0 0.4127 0.857 0.4127 102
17 Florida State 6 1 0.4067 0.852 0.5495 39
18 Toledo 7 0 0.3906 0.838 0.3906 108
19 Houston 7 0 0.3639 0.816 0.3639 120
20 Northwestern 6 2 0.3587 0.811 0.6087 14
21 Baylor 7 0 0.3566 0.810 0.3566 122
22 California 5 2 0.3302 0.788 0.6159 12
23 Duke 6 1 0.3278 0.786 0.4707 85
24 BYU 6 2 0.3248 0.783 0.5748 31
25 Texas A&M 5 2 0.3170 0.777 0.6027 16
26 UCLA 5 2 0.3168 0.776 0.6025 17
27 Bowling Green 6 2 0.2963 0.759 0.5463 42
28 Navy 5 1 0.2799 0.746 0.4465 93
29 Michigan 5 2 0.2781 0.744 0.5638 37
30 Mississippi State 6 2 0.2733 0.740 0.5233 52
31 Ole Miss 6 2 0.2715 0.739 0.5215 56
32 Wisconsin 6 2 0.2700 0.737 0.5200 57
33 North Carolina 6 1 0.2504 0.721 0.3933 106
34 Penn State 6 2 0.2424 0.714 0.4924 78
35 Georgia 5 2 0.2323 0.706 0.5180 59
36 USC 4 3 0.2185 0.694 0.6471 5
37 Boise State 6 2 0.2014 0.680 0.4514 91
38 Western Kentucky 6 2 0.1948 0.674 0.4448 94
39 Appalachian State 6 1 0.1877 0.669 0.3305 125
40 Arizona State 4 3 0.1615 0.647 0.5901 22
41 Washington State 5 2 0.1497 0.637 0.4354 96
42 Texas Tech 5 3 0.1495 0.637 0.5245 51
43 Auburn 4 3 0.1468 0.634 0.5753 30
44 Marshall 7 1 0.1452 0.633 0.2702 128
45 Texas 3 4 0.1405 0.629 0.7119 1
46 Miami-FL 4 3 0.1382 0.627 0.5667 35
47 Ohio 6 2 0.1348 0.624 0.3848 111
48 Tennessee 3 4 0.1202 0.612 0.6916 2
49 Minnesota 4 3 0.1167 0.609 0.5453 43
50 NC State 5 2 0.0972 0.593 0.3829 112
51 West Virginia 3 3 0.0941 0.590 0.5941 21
52 Georgia Southern 5 2 0.0932 0.590 0.3789 117
53 Louisiana Tech 5 3 0.0930 0.589 0.4680 87
54 Oregon 4 3 0.0885 0.586 0.5171 60
55 Arizona 5 3 0.0825 0.581 0.4575 88
56 Washington 3 4 0.0797 0.578 0.6512 3
57 Utah State 4 3 0.0755 0.575 0.5041 67
58 Illinois 4 3 0.0752 0.574 0.5037 68
59 Louisville 3 4 0.0729 0.573 0.6443 6
60 South Florida 4 3 0.0720 0.572 0.5005 71
61 Kentucky 4 3 0.0704 0.570 0.4989 72
62 Cincinnati 4 3 0.0646 0.566 0.4932 77
63 Arkansas 3 4 0.0634 0.565 0.6348 8
64 East Carolina 4 4 0.0493 0.553 0.5493 40
65 Kansas State 3 4 0.0370 0.543 0.6085 15
66 Northern Illinois 5 3 0.0355 0.541 0.4105 103
67 Missouri 4 4 0.0221 0.530 0.5221 54
68 Indiana 4 4 0.0182 0.527 0.5182 58
69 South Carolina 3 4 0.0080 0.518 0.5794 29
70 San Diego State 5 3 0.0073 0.518 0.3823 113
71 Georgia Tech 3 5 0.0067 0.517 0.6317 9
72 Arkansas State 4 3 0.0058 0.516 0.4344 97
73 Central Michigan 4 4 0.0015 0.513 0.5015 70
74 Southern Miss 5 3 -0.0057 0.507 0.3693 118
75 Tulsa 3 4 -0.0247 0.491 0.5467 41
76 Rice 4 3 -0.0277 0.488 0.4008 104
77 Vanderbilt 3 4 -0.0301 0.486 0.5413 47
78 Air Force 4 3 -0.0302 0.486 0.3984 105
79 Virginia Tech 3 5 -0.0436 0.475 0.5814 27
80 Nebraska 3 5 -0.0525 0.468 0.5725 33
81 Syracuse 3 4 -0.0561 0.465 0.5153 62
82 Akron 3 4 -0.0604 0.461 0.5111 65
83 Western Michigan 3 4 -0.0606 0.461 0.5108 66
84 Maryland 2 5 -0.0643 0.458 0.6500 4
85 Virginia 2 5 -0.0721 0.451 0.6422 7
86 Rutgers 3 4 -0.0752 0.449 0.4962 75
87 Wake Forest 3 5 -0.0813 0.444 0.5437 44
88 Boston College 3 5 -0.0831 0.442 0.5419 45
89 Colorado 4 4 -0.0839 0.441 0.4161 101
90 South Alabama 3 4 -0.1034 0.425 0.4680 86
91 San Jose State 4 4 -0.1151 0.415 0.3849 110
92 Nevada 4 4 -0.1206 0.411 0.3794 116
93 Idaho 3 4 -0.1225 0.409 0.4490 92
94 MTSU 3 5 -0.1227 0.409 0.5023 69
95 Iowa State 2 5 -0.1302 0.403 0.5841 26
96 Connecticut 3 5 -0.1354 0.398 0.4896 79
97 Tulane 2 5 -0.1400 0.395 0.5743 32
98 Buffalo 3 4 -0.1402 0.394 0.4312 98
99 Colorado State 3 4 -0.1406 0.394 0.4308 99
100 FIU 4 4 -0.1427 0.392 0.3573 121
101 Kent State 3 5 -0.1459 0.390 0.4791 81
102 Oregon State 2 5 -0.1727 0.367 0.5416 46
103 New Mexico 4 4 -0.1790 0.362 0.3210 126
104 Old Dominion 3 4 -0.1801 0.361 0.3913 107
105 Texas State 2 4 -0.1889 0.354 0.4778 83
106 Fresno State 2 6 -0.2175 0.330 0.5325 50
107 UNLV 2 5 -0.2196 0.328 0.4947 76
108 Hawaii 2 6 -0.2267 0.322 0.5233 53
109 LA-Lafayette 2 4 -0.2304 0.319 0.4363 95
110 UTEP 3 4 -0.2319 0.318 0.3395 124
111 Massachusetts 1 6 -0.2696 0.286 0.5876 24
112 Purdue 1 6 -0.2895 0.270 0.5676 34
113 LA-Monroe 1 6 -0.2912 0.268 0.5659 36
114 Ball State 2 6 -0.2984 0.262 0.4516 90
115 Other 8 92 -0.3206 0.244 0.5994 19
116 Troy 2 5 -0.3325 0.234 0.3818 114
117 SMU 1 6 -0.3351 0.231 0.5220 55
118 Miami-OH 1 7 -0.3366 0.230 0.5384 49
119 UTSA 1 6 -0.3451 0.223 0.5120 64
120 Army 2 6 -0.3831 0.191 0.3669 119
121 Charlotte 2 5 -0.3977 0.179 0.3166 127
122 Georgia State 2 4 -0.4074 0.171 0.2593 129
123 Kansas 0 7 -0.4197 0.161 0.5803 28
124 Eastern Michigan 1 7 -0.4588 0.128 0.4162 100
125 Wyoming 1 7 -0.4932 0.099 0.3818 115
126 UCF 0 8 -0.5036 0.091 0.4964 74
127 Florida Atlantic 1 6 -0.5042 0.090 0.3530 123
128 North Texas 0 7 -0.5482 0.053 0.4518 89
129 New Mexico State 0 7 -0.6119 0.000 0.3881 109

And no, Baylor still has not played anybody despite their elite scoring margin – so again the eye test does not match what has actually been accomplished.  Memphis seems like a strange choice for #3, but seriously – their resume IS better than Ohio State, Baylor or TCU.  Now that will probably change, but for now?

Clemson (1), LSU (2), Memphis (3), Michigan State (4), TCU (6), Stanford (14)

This week, with four of the top 5 as conference champs, we have a clean Final Four.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Clemson v Michigan State
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): LSU v Memphis
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Ohio State v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Alabama v TCU
  • Peach Bowl: Oklahoma v Notre Dame
  • Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v Iowa

Fake 16 Team Tournament

Using conference losses as first criteria, then ranking – in the case of conferences with divisions, it’s highest ranking division winner.  The S-Curve is then shifted to avoid first round rematches.

Automatic Bids

  • Pac 12: Stanford (14)
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (4)
  • ACC: Clemson (1)
  • Big 12: TCU (6)
  • SEC: LSU (2)
  • American: Memphis (3)
  • MAC: Toledo (18)
  • C-USA: Western Kentucky (38)
  • MWC: Boise State (37)
  • Sun Belt: Appalachian State (41)

At-Large Positions

  • Alabama (5)
  • Oklahoma State (7)
  • Iowa (8)
  • Ohio State (9)
  • Oklahoma (10)
  • Notre Dame (11)

REGIONS (EAST v WEST, SOUTH v SOUTHWEST)

EAST (Miami, FL)

  • (1) Clemson v (4) Western Kentucky
  • (2) Iowa v (3) Oklahoma

WEST (Pasadena, CA)

  • (1) Michigan State v (4) Toledo
  • (2) Alabama v (3) Ohio State

SOUTH (Atlanta, GA)

  • (1) LSU v (4) Appalachian State
  • (2) Oklahoma State v (3) Stanford

SOUTHWEST (Glendale, AZ)

  • (1) Memphis v (4) Boise State
  • (2) TCU v (3) Notre Dame
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