2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 10

The methodology was detailed previously.

Well, separation Saturday did not fail to disappoint.  With Memphis being voted off the island, and LSU and TCU taking significant hits, the shape of the conference races have changed considerably.  We still have the sticky Notre Dame question as they bagged another solid scalp (#26 Pittsburgh on the road) while Clemson remains their only loss.  Meanwhile, Alabama firmly shoved its one loss nose into the picture.  Somebody will have to be displeased.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Clemson 9 0 0.6154 1.000 0.6154 17
2 Notre Dame 8 1 0.5519 0.943 0.6630 2
3 Alabama 8 1 0.5102 0.906 0.6214 15
4 Ohio State 9 0 0.5031 0.900 0.5031 71
5 Oklahoma State 9 0 0.5014 0.898 0.5014 72
6 Iowa 9 0 0.4852 0.884 0.4852 78
7 Utah 8 1 0.4784 0.877 0.5895 26
8 LSU 7 1 0.4740 0.874 0.5990 23
9 Michigan State 8 1 0.4713 0.871 0.5824 32
10 Stanford 8 1 0.4671 0.867 0.5783 33
11 Florida 8 1 0.4491 0.851 0.5602 44
12 TCU 8 1 0.4295 0.834 0.5406 54
13 Oklahoma 8 1 0.4145 0.820 0.5256 62
14 Memphis 8 1 0.4003 0.808 0.5114 70
15 Navy 7 1 0.3921 0.800 0.5171 66
16 Baylor 8 0 0.3876 0.796 0.3876 110
17 Houston 9 0 0.3732 0.783 0.3732 117
18 Northwestern 7 2 0.3630 0.774 0.5852 31
19 Florida State 7 2 0.3531 0.765 0.5753 36
20 North Carolina 8 1 0.3468 0.760 0.4579 87
21 Temple 8 1 0.3417 0.755 0.4528 88
22 BYU 7 2 0.3384 0.752 0.5606 43
23 Michigan 7 2 0.3280 0.743 0.5502 50
24 UCLA 7 2 0.3168 0.733 0.5390 55
25 Wisconsin 8 2 0.3150 0.731 0.5150 67
26 Mississippi State 7 2 0.3117 0.728 0.5340 57
27 Pittsburgh 6 3 0.3094 0.726 0.6428 5
28 USC 6 3 0.3023 0.720 0.6356 8
29 Bowling Green 7 2 0.2780 0.698 0.5003 73
30 Toledo 7 1 0.2775 0.698 0.4025 104
31 Miami-FL 6 3 0.2546 0.677 0.5879 28
32 Ole Miss 7 3 0.2432 0.667 0.5432 52
33 Texas A&M 6 3 0.2379 0.662 0.5712 41
34 Penn State 7 3 0.2249 0.651 0.5249 63
35 Oregon 6 3 0.2170 0.644 0.5503 49
36 Boise State 7 2 0.2161 0.643 0.4384 93
37 California 5 4 0.2038 0.632 0.6483 3
38 Tennessee 5 4 0.1981 0.627 0.6425 6
39 Georgia 6 3 0.1964 0.625 0.5297 58
40 Western Kentucky 8 2 0.1866 0.616 0.3866 111
41 Duke 6 3 0.1814 0.612 0.5147 68
42 Louisville 5 4 0.1748 0.606 0.6192 16
43 Auburn 5 4 0.1700 0.602 0.6145 18
44 NC State 6 3 0.1590 0.592 0.4924 76
45 Arkansas 5 4 0.1500 0.584 0.5945 25
46 Washington State 6 3 0.1443 0.579 0.4776 82
47 West Virginia 4 4 0.1232 0.560 0.6232 13
48 Northern Illinois 6 3 0.1158 0.553 0.4491 89
49 South Florida 5 4 0.1032 0.542 0.5477 51
50 Appalachian State 7 2 0.1026 0.541 0.3249 124
51 Western Michigan 6 3 0.1004 0.539 0.4338 95
52 Illinois 5 4 0.0936 0.533 0.5381 56
53 Georgia Southern 6 2 0.0918 0.532 0.3418 121
54 Washington 4 5 0.0856 0.526 0.6412 7
55 Louisiana Tech 7 3 0.0825 0.523 0.3825 112
56 Central Michigan 5 4 0.0803 0.521 0.5248 64
57 Arkansas State 6 3 0.0796 0.521 0.4130 100
58 Texas 4 5 0.0772 0.519 0.6327 10
59 Texas Tech 5 5 0.0729 0.515 0.5729 39
60 Marshall 8 2 0.0721 0.514 0.2721 129
61 San Diego State 6 3 0.0552 0.499 0.3885 109
62 Minnesota 4 5 0.0540 0.498 0.6096 20
63 Cincinnati 5 4 0.0522 0.496 0.4967 75
64 Air Force 6 3 0.0386 0.484 0.3720 118
65 Virginia Tech 4 5 0.0298 0.476 0.5854 30
66 Arizona 5 5 0.0258 0.473 0.5258 61
67 Tulsa 5 4 0.0212 0.468 0.4656 84
68 Arizona State 4 5 0.0208 0.468 0.5764 34
69 Kentucky 4 5 0.0157 0.464 0.5713 40
70 Utah State 5 4 0.0035 0.453 0.4479 90
71 Missouri 4 5 -0.0029 0.447 0.5527 47
72 Kansas State 3 5 -0.0035 0.446 0.6215 14
73 Indiana 4 5 -0.0052 0.445 0.5503 48
74 Ohio 5 4 -0.0070 0.443 0.4374 94
75 Virginia 3 6 -0.0209 0.431 0.6458 4
76 Southern Miss 6 3 -0.0235 0.428 0.3098 127
77 Nebraska 4 6 -0.0237 0.428 0.5763 35
78 Connecticut 5 5 -0.0242 0.428 0.4758 83
79 Georgia Tech 3 6 -0.0334 0.420 0.6333 9
80 South Carolina 3 6 -0.0391 0.415 0.6276 11
81 Buffalo 5 4 -0.0393 0.414 0.4052 103
82 East Carolina 4 6 -0.0449 0.409 0.5551 46
83 Iowa State 3 6 -0.0558 0.400 0.6109 19
84 South Alabama 4 4 -0.0577 0.398 0.4423 92
85 Vanderbilt 3 6 -0.0656 0.391 0.6011 21
86 Rutgers 3 6 -0.0662 0.390 0.6005 22
87 MTSU 4 5 -0.0719 0.385 0.4836 80
88 Syracuse 3 6 -0.0780 0.380 0.5887 27
89 Akron 4 5 -0.0975 0.362 0.4581 86
90 Maryland 2 7 -0.0989 0.361 0.6789 1
91 Wake Forest 3 6 -0.1091 0.352 0.5575 45
92 Nevada 5 4 -0.1122 0.349 0.3322 123
93 Colorado 4 6 -0.1147 0.347 0.4853 77
94 New Mexico 5 4 -0.1232 0.339 0.3212 125
95 San Jose State 4 5 -0.1297 0.334 0.4259 97
96 Boston College 3 7 -0.1367 0.327 0.5633 42
97 Colorado State 4 5 -0.1484 0.317 0.4071 102
98 Rice 4 5 -0.1595 0.307 0.3960 108
99 LA-Lafayette 4 4 -0.1601 0.306 0.3399 122
100 Oregon State 2 7 -0.1791 0.289 0.5987 24
101 Old Dominion 4 5 -0.1791 0.289 0.3765 115
102 FIU 5 5 -0.1828 0.286 0.3172 126
103 UNLV 3 6 -0.1884 0.281 0.4783 81
104 Purdue 2 7 -0.2028 0.268 0.5749 37
105 Kent State 3 6 -0.2042 0.267 0.4625 85
106 Tulane 2 7 -0.2046 0.266 0.5732 38
107 UTEP 4 5 -0.2067 0.265 0.3489 120
108 Ball State 3 7 -0.2535 0.223 0.4465 91
109 Troy 3 6 -0.2643 0.213 0.4024 105
110 Idaho 3 6 -0.2653 0.212 0.4014 106
111 Hawaii 2 8 -0.2728 0.206 0.5272 59
112 Fresno State 2 7 -0.2804 0.199 0.4974 74
113 Miami-OH 2 8 -0.3155 0.167 0.4845 79
114 Texas State 2 6 -0.3276 0.156 0.4224 98
115 Other 8 93 -0.3342 0.151 0.5866 29
116 Massachusetts 1 8 -0.3478 0.138 0.5411 53
117 LA-Monroe 1 8 -0.3704 0.118 0.5185 65
118 Kansas 0 9 -0.3736 0.115 0.6264 12
119 SMU 1 8 -0.3749 0.114 0.5140 69
120 Army 2 7 -0.3973 0.094 0.3804 113
121 Florida Atlantic 2 7 -0.4003 0.091 0.3774 114
122 New Mexico State 2 7 -0.4041 0.088 0.3737 116
123 Charlotte 2 7 -0.4263 0.068 0.3514 119
124 North Texas 1 8 -0.4583 0.040 0.4306 96
125 Georgia State 2 6 -0.4633 0.035 0.2867 128
126 UCF 0 10 -0.4730 0.026 0.5270 60
127 UTSA 1 8 -0.4740 0.025 0.4149 99
128 Eastern Michigan 1 9 -0.4923 0.009 0.4077 101
129 Wyoming 1 9 -0.5025 0.000 0.3975 107

So, if we fill in our conference qualifiers:  Clemson (1), Alabama (3), Ohio State (4), Oklahoma State (5), Stanford (10) – with Navy being the Group of 5 candidate now as the highest ranked unbeaten American team.  Once against Notre Dame is in the Top 4, and once again the quality wins still has a lot of merit.  In particular, Notre Dame is buoyed by the American, where Navy and Temple have not lost to a team not named Notre Dame yet.

This week, between Notre Dame and the conference champs, we do not have to go to an “at-large” to fill the Top 4 in.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Clemson v Ohio State
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): Notre Dame v Alabama
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Iowa v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): LSU v Oklahoma State
  • Peach Bowl: Florida v Navy
  • Fiesta Bowl: Utah v Michigan State

Fake 16 Team Tournament

Using conference losses as first criteria, head to head, then ranking – in the case of conferences with divisions, it’s highest ranking division winner.  The S-Curve is then shifted to avoid first round rematches.

Automatic Bids

  • American: Navy (15)
  • ACC: Clemson (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (5)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (4)
  • Conference USA: Western Kentucky (40)
  • Mid-American: Bowling Green (29)
  • Mountain West: Boise State (36)
  • Pac-12: Stanford (10)
  • SEC: Alabama (3)
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas State (57)

At-Large Positions

  • Notre Dame (2)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Utah (7)
  • LSU (8)
  • Michigan State (9)
  • Florida (11)
  • TCU, Oklahoma, Memphis the first three teams out

REGIONS – if we rotate the New Year’s Six Bowls, that means Cotton and Orange are semis, so regionals are the other four.  Seeds are moved slightly as needed to avoid rematches in round 1.

Atlanta, GA Region

  • (1) Clemson v (4) Arkansas State
  • (2) LSU v (3) Michigan State

Pasadena, CA Region

  • (1) Ohio State v (4) Bowling Green
  • (2) Oklahoma State v (3) Stanford

Glendale, AZ Region

  • (1) Notre Dame v (4) Western Kentucky
  • (2) Utah v (3) Florida

New Orleans, LA Region

  • (1) Alabama v (4) Boise State
  • (2) Iowa v (3) Navy
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