2015 NCAA Football Ratings and New Year’s Six – Week 11

The methodology was detailed previously.

Jesus, we’re getting to the finish line.  Really now the picture is starting to get clearer – or at least clearer in the sense that we know who can win it all.  Stanford with its loss to Oregon more or less disqualified itself.  You’d think Utah did the same losing at Arizona, especially since it gives USC the tiebreaker in the Pac-12 South now.  Baylor is in deep doo doo, even with 1-loss because of the horrible schedule they played to date.  That said, they still have a lot of chances to clean up.  Clemson looks safe – although the way the committee evaluated things, you have to put North Carolina in as “alive”.

Per usual, at my stage in life it is hard to find time to write opuses before the rankings – but here is what Excel told me:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Clemson 10 0 0.5937 1.000 0.5937 22
2 Alabama 9 1 0.5369 0.950 0.6369 2
3 Notre Dame 9 1 0.5163 0.932 0.6163 10
4 Ohio State 10 0 0.5045 0.922 0.5045 63
5 Oklahoma State 10 0 0.4899 0.909 0.4899 72
6 Iowa 10 0 0.4694 0.891 0.4694 77
7 Oklahoma 9 1 0.4638 0.886 0.5638 35
8 Michigan State 9 1 0.4580 0.881 0.5580 39
9 Florida 9 1 0.4475 0.872 0.5475 44
10 TCU 9 1 0.3822 0.815 0.4822 73
11 Utah 8 2 0.3792 0.812 0.5792 31
12 LSU 7 2 0.3733 0.807 0.5955 19
13 Houston 10 0 0.3678 0.802 0.3678 108
14 Florida State 8 2 0.3606 0.796 0.5606 38
15 Navy 8 1 0.3594 0.795 0.4705 76
16 Stanford 8 2 0.3564 0.792 0.5564 41
17 North Carolina 9 1 0.3468 0.784 0.4468 85
18 Memphis 8 2 0.3391 0.777 0.5391 49
19 Northwestern 8 2 0.3388 0.777 0.5388 50
20 Pittsburgh 7 3 0.3353 0.773 0.6353 4
21 Baylor 8 1 0.3271 0.766 0.4382 91
22 Michigan 8 2 0.3269 0.766 0.5269 56
23 Toledo 8 1 0.3135 0.754 0.4246 94
24 USC 7 3 0.3048 0.747 0.6048 15
25 Bowling Green 8 2 0.3040 0.746 0.5040 64
26 Wisconsin 8 2 0.2916 0.735 0.4916 69
27 Oregon 7 3 0.2818 0.727 0.5818 27
28 Mississippi State 7 3 0.2548 0.703 0.5548 42
29 Temple 8 2 0.2447 0.694 0.4447 88
30 Ole Miss 7 3 0.2398 0.690 0.5398 48
31 BYU 7 3 0.2301 0.681 0.5301 53
32 Georgia 7 3 0.2276 0.679 0.5276 55
33 Texas A&M 7 3 0.2205 0.673 0.5205 58
34 UCLA 7 3 0.2201 0.672 0.5201 59
35 Arkansas 6 4 0.2168 0.670 0.6168 9
36 Penn State 7 3 0.2091 0.663 0.5091 62
37 Washington State 7 3 0.1967 0.652 0.4967 67
38 Miami-FL 6 4 0.1941 0.650 0.5941 21
39 Tennessee 6 4 0.1830 0.640 0.5830 25
40 California 6 4 0.1817 0.639 0.5817 28
41 Louisville 6 4 0.1806 0.638 0.5806 29
42 West Virginia 5 4 0.1552 0.616 0.5997 17
43 Western Kentucky 8 2 0.1537 0.614 0.3537 113
44 South Florida 6 4 0.1359 0.599 0.5359 51
45 Northern Illinois 7 3 0.1322 0.595 0.4322 92
46 Texas Tech 6 5 0.1026 0.569 0.5571 40
47 Duke 6 4 0.1008 0.568 0.5008 65
48 NC State 6 4 0.0998 0.567 0.4998 66
49 Georgia Southern 7 2 0.0970 0.565 0.3192 119
50 Auburn 5 5 0.0950 0.563 0.5950 20
51 Appalachian State 8 2 0.0937 0.562 0.2937 126
52 Virginia Tech 5 5 0.0856 0.555 0.5856 24
53 Boise State 7 3 0.0736 0.544 0.3736 103
54 Marshall 9 2 0.0711 0.542 0.2529 129
55 Arkansas State 7 3 0.0701 0.541 0.3701 107
56 Illinois 5 5 0.0662 0.538 0.5662 32
57 Arizona State 5 5 0.0645 0.536 0.5645 34
58 Arizona 6 5 0.0593 0.532 0.5139 61
59 Western Michigan 6 4 0.0573 0.530 0.4573 80
60 Air Force 7 3 0.0557 0.528 0.3557 111
61 Cincinnati 6 4 0.0527 0.526 0.4527 81
62 Missouri 5 5 0.0438 0.518 0.5438 46
63 Louisiana Tech 7 3 0.0426 0.517 0.3426 115
64 San Diego State 7 3 0.0331 0.509 0.3331 117
65 Texas 4 6 0.0274 0.504 0.6274 6
66 Central Michigan 5 5 0.0242 0.501 0.5242 57
67 Washington 4 6 0.0158 0.493 0.6158 12
68 Minnesota 4 6 0.0065 0.485 0.6065 14
69 Ohio 6 4 0.0012 0.481 0.4012 99
70 Nebraska 5 6 0.0009 0.480 0.5464 45
71 Tulsa 5 5 -0.0265 0.456 0.4735 74
72 Southern Miss 7 3 -0.0270 0.456 0.2730 127
73 Indiana 4 6 -0.0342 0.450 0.5658 33
74 Vanderbilt 4 6 -0.0392 0.445 0.5608 37
75 Connecticut 5 5 -0.0494 0.436 0.4506 82
76 Kentucky 4 6 -0.0495 0.436 0.5505 43
77 MTSU 5 5 -0.0553 0.431 0.4447 86
78 Utah State 5 5 -0.0553 0.431 0.4447 87
79 South Alabama 5 4 -0.0592 0.428 0.3853 102
80 New Mexico 6 4 -0.0621 0.425 0.3379 116
81 Kansas State 3 6 -0.0630 0.424 0.6036 16
82 East Carolina 4 6 -0.0658 0.422 0.5342 52
83 Virginia 3 7 -0.0683 0.420 0.6317 5
84 South Carolina 3 7 -0.0756 0.413 0.6244 7
85 Georgia Tech 3 7 -0.0768 0.412 0.6232 8
86 Akron 5 5 -0.0775 0.412 0.4225 95
87 Syracuse 3 7 -0.0841 0.406 0.6159 11
88 Iowa State 3 7 -0.0855 0.405 0.6145 13
89 Nevada 6 4 -0.0913 0.399 0.3087 125
90 Buffalo 5 5 -0.0964 0.395 0.4036 97
91 Rutgers 3 7 -0.1040 0.388 0.5960 18
92 Maryland 2 8 -0.1131 0.380 0.6869 1
93 Wake Forest 3 7 -0.1205 0.374 0.5795 30
94 Colorado State 5 5 -0.1295 0.366 0.3705 106
95 Colorado 4 7 -0.1447 0.353 0.4916 68
96 Boston College 3 7 -0.1566 0.342 0.5434 47
97 Old Dominion 5 5 -0.1819 0.320 0.3181 122
98 Tulane 3 7 -0.1835 0.319 0.5165 60
99 San Jose State 4 6 -0.1981 0.306 0.4019 98
100 Oregon State 2 8 -0.2075 0.298 0.5925 23
101 Purdue 2 8 -0.2176 0.289 0.5824 26
102 Rice 4 6 -0.2266 0.281 0.3734 104
103 FIU 5 6 -0.2336 0.275 0.3119 123
104 LA-Lafayette 4 5 -0.2370 0.272 0.3185 120
105 Kent State 3 7 -0.2415 0.268 0.4585 79
106 UNLV 3 7 -0.2562 0.255 0.4438 89
107 Fresno State 3 7 -0.2582 0.253 0.4418 90
108 Ball State 3 7 -0.2689 0.244 0.4311 93
109 UTEP 4 6 -0.2815 0.233 0.3185 121
110 Idaho 3 7 -0.3044 0.213 0.3956 100
111 Troy 3 7 -0.3106 0.207 0.3894 101
112 Massachusetts 2 8 -0.3292 0.191 0.4708 75
113 Hawaii 2 9 -0.3497 0.173 0.4685 78
114 Other 8 94 -0.3607 0.163 0.5608 36
115 Kansas 0 10 -0.3645 0.160 0.6355 3
116 Miami-OH 2 9 -0.3689 0.156 0.4493 84
117 SMU 1 9 -0.3706 0.155 0.5294 54
118 Georgia State 3 6 -0.4051 0.124 0.2616 128
119 Texas State 2 7 -0.4055 0.124 0.3722 105
120 LA-Monroe 1 9 -0.4092 0.121 0.4908 70
121 New Mexico State 2 7 -0.4233 0.108 0.3545 112
122 UTSA 2 8 -0.4403 0.093 0.3597 110
123 North Texas 1 9 -0.4503 0.085 0.4497 83
124 Florida Atlantic 2 8 -0.4530 0.082 0.3470 114
125 Army 2 8 -0.4773 0.061 0.3227 118
126 Charlotte 2 8 -0.4909 0.049 0.3091 124
127 Wyoming 1 10 -0.5042 0.038 0.4049 96
128 UCF 0 10 -0.5095 0.033 0.4905 71
129 Eastern Michigan 1 10 -0.5470 0.000 0.3621 109

So, if we fill in our conference qualifiers:  Clemson (1), Alabama (2), Ohio State (4), Oklahoma State (5), Stanford (16) – with Houston being the Group of 5 candidate now as the highest ranked unbeaten American team.  Notre Dame is still in really good shape, although their match against Stanford looms large for both teams.

This week, between Notre Dame and the conference champs, we do not have to go to an “at-large” to fill the Top 4 in.

  • Orange Bowl (National Semifinal A): Clemson v Ohio State
  • Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal B): Alabama v Notre Dame
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten/Pac 12): Iowa v Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC/Big 12): Florida v Oklahoma State
  • Peach Bowl:  Michigan State v Houston
  • Fiesta Bowl: Iowa v Oklahoma

Fake 16 Team Tournament

Using conference losses as first criteria, head to head, then ranking – in the case of conferences with divisions, it’s highest ranking division winner.  The S-Curve is then shifted to avoid first round rematches.

Automatic Bids

  • American: Houston (13)
  • ACC: Clemson (1)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (5)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (4)
  • Conference USA: Western Kentucky (43)
  • Mid-American: Toledo (23)
  • Mountain West: Air Force (60)
  • Pac-12: Stanford (16)
  • SEC: Alabama (2)
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas State (55)

At-Large Positions

  • Notre Dame (2)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Oklahoma (7)
  • Michigan State (8)
  • Florida (9)
  • TCU (10)
  • Utah, LSU, Florida State the first three teams out

REGIONS – if we rotate the New Year’s Six Bowls, that means Cotton and Orange are semis, so regionals are the other four.  Seeds are moved slightly as needed to avoid rematches in round 1.

Atlanta, GA Region

  • (1) Clemson v (4) Air Force
  • (2) Michigan State v (3) Florida

Pasadena, CA Region

  • (1) Ohio State v (4) Toledo
  • (2) Oklahoma State v (3) Stanford

New Orleans, LA Region

  • (1) Alabama v (4) Arkansas State
  • (2) Oklahoma v (3) Houston

Glendale, AZ Region

  • (1) Notre Dame v (4) Western Kentucky
  • (2) Iowa v (3) TCU
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