Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 3)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Hampton
  • (8) Chattanooga v (9) Butler
  • (4) North Carolina v (13) Boise State
  • (5) Iowa v (12) Louisiana Tech
  • (2) Arizona v (15) High Point
  • (7) George Washington v (10) USC
  • (3) Kansas v (14) Princeton
  • (6) Saint Mary’s v (11) Utah

REGION B:

  • (1) Michigan State v (16) Bucknell/Jackson State
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Florida
  • (4) Dayton v (13) Akron
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Evansville
  • (2) South Carolina v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Duke v (10) Texas-Arlington
  • (3) Texas Tech v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Arkansas-Little Rock v (11) Connecticut

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Iona
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Miami-FL v (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) Pittsburgh v (12) Alabama/Arizona State
  • (2) Providence v (15) Idaho
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) Gonzaga
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (6) Louisville v (11) Texas

REGION D:

  • (1) Virginia v (16) Cal State-Bakersfield
  • (8) Colorado v (9) Northwestern
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Kentucky v (12) Kansas State/Cincinnati
  • (2) Villanova v (15) North Florida
  • (7) California v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Iowa State v (14) Hofstra
  • (6) Texas A&M v (11) Oregon

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: USC, Utah, Texas, Oregon

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Kansas State, Alabama, Arizona State, Cincinnati

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Memphis, Wake Forest, Indiana

NEXT FOUR OUT: Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Stanford, Richmond

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