Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 10)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Jackson State/Hampton
  • (8) Butler v (9) Gonzaga
  • (4) Iowa v (13) VCU
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) George Washington
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Belmont
  • (6) Oregon v (11) Saint Mary’s/Georgia Tech

REGION B:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Bucknell/Houston Baptist
  • (8) Louisville v (9) Indiana
  • (4) Texas Tech v (13) UAB
  • (5) Virginia v (12) Houston
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Iona
  • (7) Utah v (10) Ole Miss
  • (3) Pitt v (14) High Point
  • (6) Dayton v (11) UCLA/Florida

REGION C:

  • (1) Michigan State v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Saint Joe’s v (9) Michigan
  • (4) Duke v (13) William and Mary
  • (5) USC v (12) Washington
  • (2) Villanova v (15) Cal State-Bakersfield
  • (7) Baylor v (10) Northwestern
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Arkansas-Little Rock v (11) Valparaiso

REGION D:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Colorado
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) IPFW
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Boise State
  • (2) South Carolina v (15) East Tennessee State
  • (7) Oregon State v (10) Texas-Arlington
  • (3) Providence v (14) Princeton
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Akron

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Texas-Arlington, Northwestern, Ole Miss, George Washington

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Saint Mary’s, UCLA, Florida, Georgia Tech

FIRST FOUR OUT: California, Cincinnati, Texas, Seton Hall

NEXT FOUR OUT: Connecticut, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Kansas State

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