Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 17)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Hampton/Texas Southern
  • (8) Indiana v (9) Texas
  • (4) Purdue v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Baylor v (12) VCU
  • (2) Michigan State v (15) Princeton
  • (7) Louisville v (10) Florida State
  • (3) Texas A&M v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Arkansas-Little Rock v (11) Florida

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Cal State Bakersfield/Mount Saint Mary’s
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Butler
  • (4) USC v (13) Memphis
  • (5) Virginia v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Iowa v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Valparaiso
  • (3) South Carolina v (14) Northern Illinois
  • (6) Colorado v (11) Kansas State

REGION C:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas Tech v (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Pittsburgh v (13) UAB
  • (5) Arizona v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) Saint Mary’s
  • (3) Maryland v (14) IPFW
  • (6) Oregon v (11) Stanford/Oregon State

REGION D:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Navy
  • (8) Utah v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (5) Providence v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) NC-Asheville
  • (7) Duke v (10) Kentucky
  • (3) Dayton v (14) James Madison
  • (6) Miami-FL v (11) George Washington/Gonzaga

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Kentucky, Florida State, Florida, Kansas State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Stanford, George Washington, Gonzaga, Oregon State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Alabama, Northwestern, Cincinnati, Evansville

NEXT FOUR OUT: Washington, UCLA, Connecticut, California

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