Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 25)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Hampton/Texas Southern
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Baylor v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Oregon v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) Kansas v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Kansas State
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Princeton
  • (6) Michigan v (11) Stanford

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State/Mount Saint Mary’s
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Virginia v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Louisville v (12) VCU
  • (2) Texas A&M v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) George Washington
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Utah  v (11) Cincinnati/Oregon State

REGION C:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) New Mexico State
  • (8) USC v (9) Duke
  • (4) Miami-FL v (13) UAB
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Iowa State v (15) Omaha
  • (7) Saint Mary’s v (10) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (3) Providence v (14) Northern Illinois
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Seton Hall/Butler

REGION D:

  • (1) Iowa v (16) NC-Asheville
  • (8) Texas v (9) California
  • (4) Maryland v (13) James Madison
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Connecticut
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Navy
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Florida
  • (3) Dayton v (14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (6) Pittsburgh v (11) Chattanooga

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Florida, George Washington, Kansas State, Stanford

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Butler, Oregon State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida State, Washington, Gonzaga, Creighton

NEXT FOUR OUT: UCLA, Boise State, Tulsa, Georgia

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