Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 7)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Southern/Wagner
  • (8) Florida State v (9) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (4) South Carolina v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Hofstra
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Syracuse

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Navy/Hampton
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) George Washington
  • (4) Texas A&M v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) USC v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (7) Pittsburgh v (10) Florida
  • (3) Dayton v (14) Yale
  • (6) Utah v (11) California/Washington

REGION C:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Winthrop
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Indiana
  • (4) Miami-FL v (13) Akron
  • (5) Providence v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Kansas v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Duke v (10) Butler
  • (3) Oregon v (14) UAB
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Oregon State/VCU

REGION D:

  • (1) Iowa v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Colorado v (9) Kansas State
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Cincinnati
  • (2) Maryland v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Chattanooga
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) Saint Mary’s

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Butler, Florida, Connecticut, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: California, Oregon State, VCU, Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Georgia

NEXT FOUR OUT: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Stanford, UCLA

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