Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 14)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) USC v (9) Butler
  • (4) Duke v (13) Wichita State
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) Dayton v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Texas v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Miami-FL v (14) UAB
  • (6) Baylor v (11) Florida

REGION B:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) California v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Purdue v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Iowa v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Wisconsin
  • (3) Virginia v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Cincinnati/Creighton

REGION C:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Syracuse
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Yale
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Florida State/Alabama

REGION D:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Stony Brook
  • (5) Saint Joseph’s v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) UNC-Wilmington
  • (6) Providence v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Florida

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Florida State, Alabama, Creighton

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Washington, Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Kansas State

NEXT FOUR OUT: Washington, VCU, Stanford, Saint Mary’s

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