Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 18)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Butler
  • (4) Saint Joseph’s v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Iowa State v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Dayton v (14) UAB
  • (6) Providence v (11) Alabama

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Colorado
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) USC v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

REGION C:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Syracuse
  • (3) Duke v (14) UNC-Wilmington
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Wisconsin/Kansas State

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas Tech v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Yale
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) California v (10) Florida
  • (3) Iowa v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) George Washington/Cincinnati

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Florida, Syracuse, Oregon State, Alabama

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Wisconsin, George Washington, Cincinnati, Kansas State

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, Florida State, Creighton, Temple

NEXT FOUR OUT: Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Tulsa, Clemson

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