Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 21)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.  (from Feb 22, for weekly, regions will be added)

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

FINAL FOUR: EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST (Philadelphia, PA)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Villanova v (16) Hampton/Wagner
    • (8) USC v (9) Butler
  • Providence, RI
    • (4) Baylor v (13) Monmouth
    • (5) Duke v (12) Valparaiso
  • Providence, RI
    • (2) Maryland v (15) Stephen F Austin
    • (7) California v (10) Cincinnati
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (3) West Virginia v (14) IPFW
    • (6) South Carolina v (11) Syracuse

WEST (Anaheim. CA)

  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
    • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Colorado
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Utah v (13) Akron
    • (5) Saint Joseph’s
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
    • (7) Providence v (10) Connecticut
  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (3) Iowa v (14) UNC-Wilmington
    • (6) Texas Tech v (11) George Washington/VCU

SOUTH (Louisville, KY)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Xavier v (16) Navy/Southern
    • (8) Pittsburgh v (9) Michigan
  • Spokane, WA
    • (4) Iowa State v (13) Chattanooga
    • (5) Dayton v (12) San Diego State
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Belmont
    • (7) Texas A&M v (10) Oregon State
  • Spokane, WA
    • (3) Oregon v (14) UAB
    • (6) Purdue v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

MIDWEST (Chicago, IL)

  • Des Moines, IA
    • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
    • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Hawaii
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Arizona v (13) Princeton
    • (5) Indiana v (12) Wichita State
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) North Carolina v (15) New Mexico State
    • (7) Kentucky v (10) Wisconsin
  • Des Moines, IA
    • (3) Michigan State v (14) Stony Brook
    • (6) Texas v (11) Florida/Temple

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Wisconsin, Oregon State, Cincinnati, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Florida, George Washington, VCU, Temple

FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Creighton, Alabama, Washington

NEXT FOUR OUT: Tulsa, Saint Bonaventure, UCLA, Gonzaga

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