Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 28)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.  (from Feb 22, for weekly, regions will be added)

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

FINAL FOUR: MIDWEST v WEST, EAST v SOUTH

MIDWEST (Chicago, IL)

  • Des Moines, IA
    • (1) Kansas v (16) Hampton/Wagner
    • (8) Providence v (9) Wisconsin
  • Spokane, WA
    • (4) Duke v (13) Monmouth
    • (5) Seton Hall v (12) San Diego State
  • Spokane, WA
    • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
    • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Saint Mary’s
  • Denver, CO
    • (3) Utah v (14) Stony Brook
    • (6) Texas A&M v (11) Cincinnat

WEST (Anaheim, CA)

  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
    • (8) South Carolina v (9) Michigan
  • Des Moines, IA
    • (4) Iowa State v (13) Hofstra
    • (5) Indiana v (12) Hawaii
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Winthrop
    • (7) Colorado v (10) Syracuse
  • Providence, RI
    • (3) Maryland v (14) UAB
    • (6) Saint Joseph’s v (11) Wichita State

EAST (Philadelphia, PA)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Villanova v (16) Bucknell/Texas Southern
    • (8) Butler v (9) Oregon State
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Texas v (13) Princeton
    • (5) California v (12) Valparaiso
  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
    • (7) Pittsburgh v (10) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • Providence, RI
    • (3) North Carolina v (14) South Dakota State
    • (6) Iowa v (11) Stanford

SOUTH (Louisville, KY)

  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (1) Xavier v (16) North Florida
    • (8) Kentucky v (9) Notre Dame
  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (4) Baylor v (13) Chattanooga
    • (5) Purdue v (12) George Washington/VCU
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
    • (7) Dayton v (10) USC
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (3) Michigan State v (14) Akron
    • (6) Arizona v (11) Connecticut/Vanderbilt

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Michigan, Syracuse, USC, Stanford

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Connecticut, George Washington, VCU, Vanderbilt

FIRST FOUR OUT: Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Gonzaga, Marquette

NEXT FOUR OUT: Florida, Florida State, Tulsa, Alabama

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s