Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 6)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense. (clinced teams in bold)

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Lehigh/Hampton
  • (8) Oregon State v (9) Wisconsin
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Iowa v (10) Stanford
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Butler v (11) Saint Bonaventure

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Austin Peay/Texas Southern
  • (8) Saint Joseph’s v (9) South Carolina
  • (4) Texas v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Duke v (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Cincinnati
  • (3) Utah v (14) South Dakota State
  • (7) Dayton v (10) Syracuse

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Florida Gulf Coast
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Purdue v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) California v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Providence v (10) Michigan
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Yale
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Connecticut/VCU

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Colorado v (9) USC
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Akron
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Pittsburgh
  • (3) Indiana v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Temple/Florida State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Michigan, Stanford, Saint Bonaventure, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Connecticut, Temple, Florida State, VCU

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

NEXT FOUR OUT: Marquette, George Washington, Houston, Tulsa

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