2016 NCAA Football Standings #1 – (post-Week 3)

Another year is another set of NCAA rankings.  If you want to look at the methodology, it’s here.  Basically we use point margins to determine opponent “strength”, and then use those to adjust win/loss total.

Week 3 – our first week with real SoS data (each team has played two games so there each opponent has played).  The highlights of the show this past week was essentially the Big XII being voted off the playoff island.  (Texas seems like the only possible winner – it’s early but hard for Oklahoma to live that down)  You also saw Alabama, Ohio State and Louisville significantly throwing down.  The first standings are:

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Alabama 3 0 0.6216 1.000 0.6216 8
2 Ohio State 3 0 0.5543 0.953 0.5543 17
3 Houston 3 0 0.5347 0.939 0.5347 25
4 Stanford 2 0 0.5203 0.929 0.5203 27
5 Georgia 3 0 0.5025 0.916 0.5025 30
6 Central Michigan 3 0 0.4807 0.901 0.4807 35
7 Texas A&M 3 0 0.4619 0.888 0.4619 42
8 Louisville 3 0 0.4456 0.876 0.4456 46
9 Clemson 3 0 0.4395 0.872 0.4395 48
10 Arkansas 3 0 0.4044 0.847 0.4044 58
11 Tennessee 3 0 0.3992 0.843 0.3992 60
12 Michigan State 2 0 0.3972 0.842 0.3972 61
13 Miami-FL 3 0 0.3681 0.822 0.3681 71
14 Wisconsin 3 0 0.3658 0.820 0.3658 75
15 Maryland 3 0 0.3641 0.819 0.3641 79
16 Western Michigan 3 0 0.3624 0.818 0.3624 81
17 Michigan 3 0 0.3432 0.804 0.3432 92
18 Arizona State 3 0 0.3424 0.803 0.3424 93
19 South Florida 3 0 0.3313 0.796 0.3313 97
20 San Diego State 3 0 0.3285 0.794 0.3285 98
21 Navy 3 0 0.3236 0.790 0.3236 99
22 Wake Forest 3 0 0.3184 0.787 0.3184 100
23 Utah 3 0 0.3170 0.786 0.3170 101
24 UCLA 2 1 0.3140 0.783 0.6474 4
25 Boise State 2 0 0.3063 0.778 0.3063 103
26 Indiana 2 0 0.2997 0.773 0.2997 106
27 Baylor 3 0 0.2868 0.764 0.2868 108
28 Georgia Southern 3 0 0.2843 0.763 0.2843 109
29 West Virginia 2 0 0.2825 0.761 0.2825 110
30 Nebraska 3 0 0.2806 0.760 0.2806 111
31 Georgia Tech 3 0 0.2780 0.758 0.2780 112
32 Army 3 0 0.2774 0.758 0.2774 113
33 Minnesota 2 0 0.2545 0.742 0.2545 117
34 Toledo 3 0 0.2361 0.729 0.2361 121
35 Florida State 2 1 0.2359 0.728 0.5692 15
36 South Carolina 2 1 0.2106 0.711 0.5439 23
37 Air Force 2 0 0.2028 0.705 0.2028 122
38 Texas State 1 1 0.1988 0.702 0.6988 2
39 Troy 2 1 0.1930 0.698 0.5264 26
40 Washington 3 0 0.1814 0.690 0.1814 126
41 Florida 3 0 0.1685 0.681 0.1685 127
42 Memphis 2 0 0.1635 0.678 0.1635 128
43 Eastern Michigan 2 1 0.1617 0.676 0.4951 32
44 Western Kentucky 2 1 0.1547 0.671 0.4880 34
45 Colorado 2 1 0.1423 0.663 0.4756 38
46 Ball State 2 1 0.1286 0.653 0.4620 41
47 Kansas State 1 1 0.1234 0.649 0.6234 7
48 Tulsa 2 1 0.1147 0.643 0.4481 44
49 California 2 1 0.1053 0.637 0.4386 49
50 Akron 2 1 0.0989 0.632 0.4323 51
51 SMU 2 1 0.0911 0.627 0.4245 53
52 Oklahoma State 2 1 0.0869 0.624 0.4203 54
53 Texas Tech 2 1 0.0787 0.618 0.4120 55
54 Cincinnati 2 1 0.0782 0.617 0.4115 56
55 MTSU 2 1 0.0671 0.610 0.4005 59
56 East Carolina 2 1 0.0634 0.607 0.3967 62
57 USC 1 2 0.0559 0.602 0.7226 1
58 Wyoming 2 1 0.0546 0.601 0.3879 63
59 Penn State 2 1 0.0418 0.592 0.3751 67
60 Texas 2 1 0.0392 0.590 0.3725 68
61 Utah State 2 1 0.0347 0.587 0.3680 72
62 Colorado State 2 1 0.0322 0.585 0.3655 77
63 Pittsburgh 2 1 0.0287 0.583 0.3621 82
64 North Carolina 2 1 0.0273 0.582 0.3606 83
65 Oregon 2 1 0.0256 0.580 0.3589 84
66 LSU 2 1 0.0230 0.579 0.3564 85
67 Rutgers 2 1 0.0221 0.578 0.3554 86
68 NC State 2 1 0.0204 0.577 0.3537 87
69 Oklahoma 1 2 0.0169 0.574 0.6836 3
70 Virginia Tech 2 1 0.0160 0.574 0.3494 91
71 Southern Miss 2 1 0.0079 0.568 0.3413 94
72 Connecticut 2 1 -0.0181 0.550 0.3153 102
73 Arizona 2 1 -0.0297 0.542 0.3036 104
74 Florida Atlantic 1 2 -0.0471 0.529 0.6195 9
75 LA-Lafayette 2 1 -0.0562 0.523 0.2771 114
76 Nevada 2 1 -0.0673 0.515 0.2661 116
77 Oregon State 1 1 -0.0698 0.513 0.4302 52
78 UNLV 1 2 -0.0722 0.512 0.5944 11
79 TCU 2 1 -0.0798 0.506 0.2536 118
80 BYU 1 2 -0.0887 0.500 0.5779 12
81 Ole Miss 1 2 -0.1020 0.491 0.5647 16
82 LA-Monroe 1 2 -0.1168 0.480 0.5499 18
83 Louisiana Tech 1 2 -0.1178 0.480 0.5489 20
84 Fresno State 1 2 -0.1178 0.479 0.5488 21
85 Appalachian State 1 2 -0.1181 0.479 0.5485 22
86 Syracuse 1 2 -0.1231 0.476 0.5435 24
87 Idaho 1 2 -0.1497 0.457 0.5170 28
88 Old Dominion 1 2 -0.1502 0.457 0.5165 29
89 Boston College 1 2 -0.1654 0.446 0.5013 31
90 UCF 1 2 -0.1754 0.439 0.4913 33
91 Missouri 1 2 -0.1893 0.429 0.4773 36
92 Charlotte 1 2 -0.1895 0.429 0.4771 37
93 South Alabama 1 2 -0.1965 0.424 0.4702 39
94 Hawaii 1 3 -0.2002 0.421 0.5498 19
95 Ohio 1 2 -0.2005 0.421 0.4661 40
96 Bowling Green 1 2 -0.2135 0.412 0.4531 43
97 Auburn 1 2 -0.2194 0.408 0.4473 45
98 Vanderbilt 1 2 -0.2295 0.401 0.4372 50
99 Purdue 1 1 -0.2547 0.383 0.2453 119
100 Marshall 1 1 -0.2556 0.383 0.2444 120
101 San Jose State 1 2 -0.2586 0.380 0.4081 57
102 UTSA 1 2 -0.2810 0.365 0.3856 64
103 Other 8 79 -0.2836 0.363 0.6245 6
104 Iowa 2 1 -0.2857 0.361 0.0476 129
105 Notre Dame 1 2 -0.2895 0.359 0.3771 66
106 New Mexico State 1 2 -0.2943 0.355 0.3723 69
107 New Mexico 1 2 -0.2967 0.354 0.3699 70
108 Tulane 1 2 -0.2993 0.352 0.3674 73
109 Mississippi State 1 2 -0.3009 0.351 0.3657 76
110 UTEP 1 2 -0.3014 0.350 0.3653 78
111 Kansas 1 2 -0.3033 0.349 0.3634 80
112 North Texas 1 2 -0.3137 0.342 0.3530 88
113 Kentucky 1 2 -0.3139 0.341 0.3528 89
114 Duke 1 2 -0.3168 0.339 0.3499 90
115 Temple 1 2 -0.3275 0.332 0.3392 95
116 Massachusetts 1 2 -0.3334 0.328 0.3333 96
117 Rice 0 3 -0.3531 0.314 0.6469 5
118 Illinois 1 2 -0.3670 0.304 0.2997 105
119 Georgia State 0 3 -0.3978 0.282 0.6022 10
120 Washington State 1 2 -0.3988 0.282 0.2679 115
121 Northern Illinois 0 3 -0.4260 0.263 0.5740 13
122 Arkansas State 0 3 -0.4265 0.262 0.5735 14
123 Northwestern 1 2 -0.4660 0.234 0.2007 124
124 Kent State 1 2 -0.4842 0.222 0.1825 125
125 FIU 0 3 -0.5591 0.169 0.4409 47
126 Virginia 0 3 -0.6149 0.130 0.3851 65
127 Iowa State 0 3 -0.6330 0.117 0.3670 74
128 Miami-OH 0 3 -0.7071 0.065 0.2929 107
129 Buffalo 0 2 -0.7990 0.000 0.2010 123

So, with two years of data, we can project the playoff field thusly:

  • The conference champs
    • SEC: Alabama (1)
    • ACC: Louisville (8)
    • Big Ten: Ohio State (2)
    • Big XII: Baylor (27)
    • Pac 12: Stanford (4)
    • REST: Houston (3)
  • Louisville is probably better than Houston – duh.  At the same time, Houston – with a true road and neutral site win have edges in schedule quality for now – especially with so little data on Florida State.  But anyway, there you go.
  • The New Year’s Six
    • Peach Bowl (national semifinal): Alabama v Stanford
    • Fiesta Bowl (national semifinal): Ohio State v Houston
    • Sugar Bowl (Big 12 v SEC): Baylor v Georgia
    • Rose Bowl (Big Ten v Pac-12): Michigan State v Utah
    • Cotton Bowl (at-large): Clemson v Arkansas
    • Orange Bowl (ACC v ND, SEC, Big Ten): Louisville v Texas A&M
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