2016 NCAA Football Standings #2 – (post-Week 4)

One of the features of a model like this – where strength of schedule is being sorted out as results get added – is that the fluctuations will be very large now, and then get incrementally smaller.  Did last week’s #1, Alabama really deserve to be knocked all the way out of “playoff” range?  Well, while they added a flimsy opponent in Kent State, thus making their four wins over USC (#32), Western Kentucky (#68), Ole Miss (#22) and Kent State (#119) come out to an average place of #60.

As a point of comparison, Stanford’s 3 wins are over Kansas State (#17), USC (#32) and UCLA (#20) – so as of now with current info, Stanford’s results are better.  Even if you look at SEC teams, Texas A&M’s wins are UCLA (#20), Arkansas (#33), Auburn (#34) and some non-FBS (#123) , so again a better SoS (and both teams have true road wins to brag about).  That said, if you want a forward looking indicator, the Top 4 teams by point margin relative to opponents (the thing we use in SoS calculations) are Ohio State, Louisville, Stanford and Alabama.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Stanford 3 0 0.6009 1.000 0.6009 7
2 Ohio State 3 0 0.5122 0.930 0.5122 15
3 Clemson 4 0 0.4907 0.913 0.4907 23
4 Texas A&M 4 0 0.4807 0.905 0.4807 24
5 Tennessee 4 0 0.4750 0.900 0.4750 25
6 Alabama 4 0 0.4714 0.897 0.4714 28
7 Boise State 3 0 0.4487 0.879 0.4487 35
8 Houston 4 0 0.4480 0.879 0.4480 37
9 Louisville 4 0 0.4291 0.864 0.4291 41
10 Wisconsin 4 0 0.4006 0.841 0.4006 52
11 Nebraska 4 0 0.3816 0.826 0.3816 62
12 Wake Forest 4 0 0.3694 0.816 0.3694 68
13 Florida State 3 1 0.3649 0.813 0.6149 5
14 Miami-FL 3 0 0.3617 0.810 0.3617 75
15 Western Michigan 4 0 0.3505 0.801 0.3505 82
16 West Virginia 3 0 0.3402 0.793 0.3402 87
17 Michigan 4 0 0.3183 0.776 0.3183 96
18 Arizona State 4 0 0.3183 0.776 0.3183 97
19 Colorado 3 1 0.2760 0.742 0.5260 10
20 Navy 3 0 0.2746 0.741 0.2746 110
21 Georgia 3 1 0.2739 0.741 0.5239 11
22 Utah 4 0 0.2652 0.734 0.2652 112
23 Maryland 3 0 0.2615 0.731 0.2615 113
24 Arkansas 3 1 0.2524 0.724 0.5024 19
25 Air Force 3 0 0.2517 0.723 0.2517 117
26 Minnesota 3 0 0.2467 0.719 0.2467 119
27 San Diego State 3 0 0.2355 0.710 0.2355 121
28 Baylor 4 0 0.2243 0.701 0.2243 122
29 Toledo 3 0 0.1820 0.668 0.1820 126
30 Washington 3 0 0.1795 0.666 0.1795 127
31 Memphis 3 0 0.1583 0.649 0.1583 129
32 Tulsa 3 1 0.1547 0.646 0.4047 50
33 Central Michigan 3 1 0.1408 0.635 0.3908 56
34 UCLA 2 2 0.1359 0.631 0.6359 4
35 Troy 3 1 0.1358 0.631 0.3858 59
36 Ball State 3 1 0.1247 0.622 0.3747 65
37 Georgia Tech 3 1 0.1247 0.622 0.3747 66
38 Virginia Tech 3 1 0.1242 0.622 0.3742 67
39 North Carolina 3 1 0.1154 0.615 0.3654 73
40 Appalachian State 2 2 0.1058 0.607 0.6058 6
41 South Florida 3 1 0.1028 0.605 0.3528 81
42 Georgia Southern 3 1 0.0982 0.601 0.3482 83
43 Eastern Michigan 3 1 0.0834 0.589 0.3334 91
44 Cincinnati 3 1 0.0810 0.588 0.3310 92
45 Kansas State 2 1 0.0807 0.587 0.4141 46
46 Florida 3 1 0.0805 0.587 0.3305 93
47 MTSU 3 1 0.0722 0.581 0.3222 95
48 Michigan State 2 1 0.0589 0.570 0.3922 55
49 Texas Tech 2 1 0.0486 0.562 0.3820 61
50 Oklahoma 1 2 0.0239 0.542 0.6906 1
51 TCU 3 1 0.0206 0.540 0.2706 111
52 Penn State 2 2 0.0171 0.537 0.5171 13
53 Ole Miss 2 2 0.0041 0.527 0.5041 18
54 Southern Miss 3 1 0.0019 0.525 0.2519 116
55 Texas State 1 2 -0.0030 0.521 0.6636 2
56 NC State 2 1 -0.0189 0.508 0.3144 99
57 Syracuse 2 2 -0.0276 0.501 0.4724 26
58 Texas 2 1 -0.0284 0.501 0.3050 102
59 South Carolina 2 2 -0.0288 0.501 0.4712 29
60 Auburn 2 2 -0.0294 0.500 0.4706 30
61 Idaho 2 2 -0.0347 0.496 0.4653 31
62 Army 3 1 -0.0399 0.492 0.2101 123
63 Akron 2 2 -0.0428 0.489 0.4572 33
64 California 2 2 -0.0515 0.482 0.4485 36
65 East Carolina 2 2 -0.0521 0.482 0.4479 38
66 Oregon 2 2 -0.0580 0.477 0.4420 39
67 LSU 2 2 -0.0583 0.477 0.4417 40
68 Iowa 3 1 -0.0670 0.470 0.1830 125
69 Oklahoma State 2 2 -0.0712 0.467 0.4288 42
70 Vanderbilt 2 2 -0.0726 0.466 0.4274 43
71 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.0772 0.462 0.4228 44
72 Arizona 2 1 -0.0810 0.459 0.2524 115
73 Indiana 2 1 -0.0825 0.458 0.2509 118
74 Pittsburgh 2 2 -0.0837 0.457 0.4163 45
75 Colorado State 2 2 -0.0876 0.454 0.4124 47
76 USC 1 3 -0.0957 0.447 0.6543 3
77 Boston College 2 2 -0.1003 0.444 0.3997 53
78 Duke 2 2 -0.1113 0.435 0.3887 57
79 Wyoming 2 2 -0.1122 0.434 0.3878 58
80 Western Kentucky 2 2 -0.1163 0.431 0.3837 60
81 LA-Lafayette 2 2 -0.1203 0.428 0.3797 63
82 UCF 2 2 -0.1331 0.418 0.3669 69
83 SMU 2 2 -0.1394 0.413 0.3606 76
84 Ohio 2 2 -0.1471 0.407 0.3529 80
85 Kentucky 2 2 -0.1558 0.400 0.3442 84
86 South Alabama 2 2 -0.1561 0.399 0.3439 85
87 LA-Monroe 1 2 -0.1562 0.399 0.5105 16
88 Rutgers 2 2 -0.1623 0.395 0.3377 89
89 Missouri 2 2 -0.1654 0.392 0.3346 90
90 Purdue 2 1 -0.1677 0.390 0.1657 128
91 Utah State 2 2 -0.1754 0.384 0.3246 94
92 Tulane 2 2 -0.1846 0.377 0.3154 98
93 Marshall 1 2 -0.1948 0.369 0.4719 27
94 Mississippi State 2 2 -0.2029 0.362 0.2971 104
95 Oregon State 1 2 -0.2067 0.359 0.4600 32
96 Connecticut 2 2 -0.2073 0.359 0.2927 107
97 Nevada 2 2 -0.2190 0.350 0.2810 109
98 BYU 1 3 -0.2318 0.339 0.5182 12
99 Bowling Green 1 3 -0.2350 0.337 0.5150 14
100 North Texas 2 2 -0.2417 0.332 0.2583 114
101 Louisiana Tech 1 3 -0.2458 0.328 0.5042 17
102 Hawaii 1 3 -0.2508 0.324 0.4992 20
103 Fresno State 1 3 -0.2550 0.321 0.4950 21
104 Florida Atlantic 1 3 -0.2555 0.321 0.4945 22
105 Temple 2 2 -0.2565 0.320 0.2435 120
106 Charlotte 1 3 -0.2960 0.289 0.4540 34
107 Illinois 1 2 -0.3013 0.284 0.3654 72
108 Kansas 1 2 -0.3095 0.278 0.3572 77
109 Other 10 84 -0.3290 0.262 0.5646 8
110 New Mexico State 1 3 -0.3450 0.250 0.4050 49
111 UTSA 1 3 -0.3475 0.248 0.4025 51
112 New Mexico 1 2 -0.3617 0.236 0.3049 103
113 Washington State 1 2 -0.3810 0.221 0.2856 108
114 San Jose State 1 3 -0.3833 0.219 0.3667 70
115 UNLV 1 3 -0.3845 0.218 0.3655 71
116 Virginia 1 3 -0.3883 0.215 0.3617 74
117 Northwestern 1 3 -0.3961 0.209 0.3539 79
118 Kent State 1 3 -0.4116 0.197 0.3384 88
119 Massachusetts 1 3 -0.4380 0.176 0.3120 100
120 Georgia State 0 3 -0.4428 0.172 0.5572 9
121 Iowa State 1 3 -0.4444 0.171 0.3056 101
122 UTEP 1 3 -0.4549 0.162 0.2951 105
123 Notre Dame 1 3 -0.4567 0.161 0.2933 106
124 Buffalo 1 2 -0.4775 0.145 0.1892 124
125 Rice 0 4 -0.5940 0.052 0.4060 48
126 Arkansas State 0 4 -0.6055 0.043 0.3945 54
127 FIU 0 4 -0.6226 0.029 0.3774 64
128 Northern Illinois 0 4 -0.6456 0.011 0.3544 78
129 Miami-OH 0 4 -0.6597 0.000 0.3403 86

To turn these into playoff berths – we look at the six champs:

  • SEC – Texas A&M (4)
  • ACC – Clemson (3)
  • Big 12 – West Virginia (16)
  • Big Ten – Ohio State (2)
  • Pac 12 – Stanford (1)
  • Group of Five – Boise State (7) (Boise State wins with more true road wins right now)

Notably we can credibly identify a Top 4, so Stanford, Ohio State, Clemson and Texas A&M are in the playoffs.  We fill the other spots accordingly- remember, this is based on if the season ended right now.

  • Fiesta Bowl (National Semifinal #1): Stanford v Texas A&M
  • Peach Bowl (National Semifinal #2): Ohio State v Clemson
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama v West Virginia
  • Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v Arizona State
  • Orange Bowl: Louisville v Tennessee
  • Cotton Bowl: Boise State v Nebraska
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