2017 College Football Rankings #1

Written by Sriram

(Note: This does not include the results of yesterday’s 17-7 win by Texas at Iowa State)

Finally, after four weeks of football, and a lot of schedule reshuffling due to the devastating hurricanes in the South. (A list of ways to pitch in to help that horrific situation in Puerto Rico can be found here).  Among the more trivial results of this delay was a long time before each of the college teams played twice – thus allowing for a legitimate strength of schedule metric.  Of course, as we learn about the teams, the SoS numbers will get cleaner.  Here is a further explainer of the method.  So what does the first ranking hold for us?  Voila!

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 UCF 2 0 0.5476 1.000 0.5476 7
2 Michigan 4 0 0.5460 0.999 0.5460 8
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.5238 0.982 0.5238 14
4 TCU 4 0 0.5228 0.981 0.5228 15
5 Alabama 4 0 0.5172 0.977 0.5172 19
6 Georgia 4 0 0.5122 0.973 0.5122 20
7 San Diego State 4 0 0.5009 0.964 0.5009 26
8 USC 4 0 0.4997 0.963 0.4997 27
9 Navy 3 0 0.4790 0.948 0.4790 32
10 Clemson 4 0 0.4439 0.921 0.4439 47
11 Texas Tech 3 0 0.4329 0.912 0.4329 53
12 Washington 4 0 0.4282 0.909 0.4282 56
13 Wake Forest 4 0 0.4223 0.904 0.4223 60
14 Wisconsin 3 0 0.3871 0.877 0.3871 75
15 Penn State 4 0 0.3766 0.869 0.3766 81
16 Duke 4 0 0.3545 0.853 0.3545 89
17 UTSA 3 0 0.3233 0.829 0.3233 97
18 Ohio State 3 1 0.3068 0.816 0.5568 6
19 Utah 4 0 0.2979 0.809 0.2979 108
20 Minnesota 3 0 0.2938 0.806 0.2938 111
21 Louisville 3 1 0.2829 0.798 0.5329 10
22 Maryland 2 1 0.2746 0.792 0.6080 4
23 Notre Dame 3 1 0.2672 0.786 0.5172 18
24 Memphis 3 0 0.2440 0.768 0.2440 124
25 Florida 2 1 0.2418 0.766 0.5751 5
26 Miami-FL 2 0 0.2283 0.756 0.2283 126
27 Iowa 3 1 0.2241 0.753 0.4741 33
28 Virginia Tech 4 0 0.2224 0.752 0.2224 127
29 Oklahoma State 3 1 0.2107 0.743 0.4607 39
30 Mississippi State 3 1 0.2076 0.740 0.4576 40
31 South Florida 4 0 0.2037 0.737 0.2037 128
32 Washington State 4 0 0.2027 0.737 0.2027 129
33 California 3 1 0.1865 0.724 0.4365 50
34 SMU 3 1 0.1840 0.722 0.4340 52
35 Vanderbilt 3 1 0.1793 0.719 0.4293 54
36 Kentucky 3 1 0.1679 0.710 0.4179 64
37 NC State 3 1 0.1522 0.698 0.4022 69
38 Indiana 2 1 0.1507 0.697 0.4840 31
39 Oregon 3 1 0.1478 0.695 0.3978 70
40 Colorado 3 1 0.1437 0.692 0.3937 72
41 FIU 2 1 0.1382 0.687 0.4715 34
42 South Carolina 3 1 0.1378 0.687 0.3878 74
43 LSU 3 1 0.1278 0.679 0.3778 79
44 Troy 3 1 0.1053 0.662 0.3553 88
45 Houston 2 1 0.1050 0.662 0.4383 49
46 Ohio 3 1 0.0917 0.652 0.3417 91
47 Auburn 3 1 0.0807 0.643 0.3307 94
48 Tennessee 3 1 0.0682 0.634 0.3182 100
49 Toledo 3 1 0.0676 0.633 0.3176 101
50 Virginia 3 1 0.0627 0.630 0.3127 103
51 Texas A&M 3 1 0.0599 0.628 0.3099 105
52 Northern Illinois 2 1 0.0503 0.620 0.3836 77
53 Michigan State 2 1 0.0444 0.616 0.3777 80
54 Marshall 2 1 0.0430 0.615 0.3763 82
55 Illinois 2 1 0.0392 0.612 0.3726 84
56 Iowa State 2 1 0.0372 0.610 0.3706 85
57 Cincinnati 2 2 0.0349 0.608 0.5349 9
58 Tulane 2 2 0.0261 0.602 0.5261 13
59 Arizona State 2 2 0.0219 0.598 0.5219 16
60 Army 2 2 0.0100 0.589 0.5100 22
61 Stanford 2 2 0.0085 0.588 0.5085 23
62 Purdue 2 2 0.0081 0.588 0.5081 24
63 West Virginia 3 1 -0.0028 0.580 0.2472 122
64 Ole Miss 2 1 -0.0085 0.575 0.3248 96
65 Appalachian State 2 2 -0.0290 0.560 0.4710 35
66 Northwestern 2 1 -0.0377 0.553 0.2956 110
67 Utah State 2 2 -0.0382 0.553 0.4618 38
68 Southern Miss 2 1 -0.0427 0.549 0.2906 114
69 Nebraska 2 2 -0.0430 0.549 0.4570 41
70 Buffalo 2 2 -0.0458 0.547 0.4542 43
71 Eastern Michigan 2 1 -0.0480 0.545 0.2854 116
72 Fresno State 1 2 -0.0550 0.540 0.6117 3
73 North Texas 2 2 -0.0591 0.537 0.4409 48
74 Georgia Tech 2 1 -0.0674 0.530 0.2659 120
75 Colorado State 2 2 -0.0743 0.525 0.4257 57
76 Boston College 1 3 -0.0751 0.524 0.6749 1
77 Louisiana Tech 2 2 -0.0786 0.522 0.4214 61
78 UCLA 2 2 -0.0808 0.520 0.4192 62
79 Western Michigan 2 2 -0.0820 0.519 0.4180 63
80 Kansas State 2 1 -0.0865 0.516 0.2469 123
81 MTSU 2 2 -0.0896 0.513 0.4104 66
82 Temple 2 2 -0.1044 0.502 0.3956 71
83 Wyoming 2 2 -0.1115 0.497 0.3885 73
84 Boise State 2 2 -0.1139 0.495 0.3861 76
85 New Mexico State 2 2 -0.1363 0.478 0.3637 87
86 New Mexico 2 2 -0.1465 0.470 0.3535 90
87 Air Force 1 2 -0.1565 0.462 0.5101 21
88 Texas 1 2 -0.1610 0.459 0.5057 25
89 Idaho 2 2 -0.1677 0.454 0.3323 93
90 Miami-OH 2 2 -0.1724 0.450 0.3276 95
91 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.1795 0.445 0.3205 99
92 Arkansas State 1 2 -0.1822 0.443 0.4845 30
93 Ball State 2 2 -0.1895 0.437 0.3105 104
94 Hawaii 2 2 -0.1979 0.431 0.3021 106
95 Arizona 2 2 -0.2031 0.427 0.2969 109
96 Western Kentucky 2 2 -0.2064 0.424 0.2936 112
97 Central Michigan 2 2 -0.2077 0.423 0.2923 113
98 UAB 2 2 -0.2183 0.415 0.2817 117
99 Arkansas 1 2 -0.2186 0.415 0.4480 46
100 Kent State 1 3 -0.2201 0.414 0.5299 11
101 Florida Atlantic 1 3 -0.2235 0.411 0.5265 12
102 Syracuse 2 2 -0.2271 0.408 0.2729 119
103 Pittsburgh 1 3 -0.2294 0.407 0.5206 17
104 UNLV 1 2 -0.2620 0.382 0.4047 68
105 Akron 1 3 -0.2932 0.358 0.4568 42
106 Oregon State 1 3 -0.2982 0.354 0.4518 44
107 North Carolina 1 3 -0.3003 0.352 0.4497 45
108 BYU 1 3 -0.3137 0.342 0.4363 51
109 Rice 1 3 -0.3209 0.337 0.4291 55
110 Rutgers 1 3 -0.3255 0.333 0.4245 58
111 Texas State 1 3 -0.3329 0.328 0.4171 65
112 Florida State 0 2 -0.3401 0.322 0.6599 2
113 Tulsa 1 3 -0.3408 0.321 0.4092 67
114 LA-Monroe 1 2 -0.3444 0.319 0.3222 98
115 Missouri 1 3 -0.3665 0.302 0.3835 78
116 South Alabama 1 3 -0.3760 0.295 0.3740 83
117 San Jose State 1 4 -0.3773 0.294 0.4227 59
118 Other 9 80 -0.4048 0.273 0.4941 28
119 Georgia State 1 2 -0.4137 0.266 0.2530 121
120 LA-Lafayette 1 3 -0.4346 0.250 0.3154 102
121 East Carolina 1 3 -0.4496 0.238 0.3004 107
122 Kansas 1 3 -0.4615 0.229 0.2885 115
123 Connecticut 1 2 -0.4666 0.225 0.2001 130
124 Coastal Carolina 1 2 -0.5056 0.196 0.1611 131
125 Baylor 0 4 -0.5127 0.190 0.4873 29
126 Georgia Southern 0 3 -0.5338 0.174 0.4662 36
127 UTEP 0 4 -0.5378 0.171 0.4622 37
128 Bowling Green 0 4 -0.6361 0.096 0.3639 86
129 Nevada 0 4 -0.6665 0.073 0.3335 92
130 Charlotte 0 4 -0.7245 0.028 0.2755 118
131 Massachusetts 0 5 -0.7618 0.000 0.2382 125

Well, clearly we saw THAT coming!  How is Central Florida #1 so far?  Well, as I will probably note a million times over the season, the rankings only know about this season.  The modeling does not know preseason rank – or whether a team should be good?  So Central Florida, with a big win at Maryland, who was unbeaten against the rest of its schedule, which included a win at Texas – has done enough to claim the top spot for now.  Now, as the season goes along, we will know more about how good the Maryland win really WAS – and Central Florida will continue to have games to win.  In reality, they probably do not have enough schedule power in the future to stay here.  But for now, yippee!!

 

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